Lockdown party scandals have turned many voters against Johnson. His average net acceptance score of seven national pollsters plummeted from -9 last September to -40 in January. At the bottom, the prime minister’s ratings were as poor as those of Margaret Thatcher during the tax crisis or Gordon Brown at the height of the financial crisis. Johnson was less popular with voters in January than Jeremy Corbyn during the 2019 election campaign. Johnson’s name as a politician with a unique popular resemblance seemed completely shot. The prime minister has recovered somewhat from his low tide, with average net approval in the latest numbers -25, up 15 points in January. This recovery should not be overestimated. Despite the relatively favorable news agenda, Johnson’s ratings today remain at or below the worst numbers he recorded before partygate. The prime minister is less popular now than he was, for example, at the height of the lockdown crisis in the winter of 2020. The honeymoon with last summer’s vaccine now seems like a distant memory. Johnson is considered weaker, less capable, less reliable and less likeable at any point before the party. Police fines and further revelations will reinforce this shift. The damage caused by wine coolers and disco locks can not be undone. Things can even get worse. Public hostility to the prime minister could divide the views of his party and its politicians. As Labor found out in 2019, popular policies lose their luster when associated with an unpopular frontman. Motivation is mistrust. the ability to deliver is questioned. Good ideas can not save bad leaders. Nor is the political agenda likely to offer much relief to the government, as the costs of the crisis abroad begin to bite at home, through rising food and energy prices, rising taxes and falling living standards. Calls for collective sacrifice will be heard hollowly by politicians who the public considers to be playing by their own rules. The Conservatives’ advantage as financial managers, one of their electoral trump cards for a long time, has already worn off, with even worse news coming. Surprisingly, the dire financial situation helped support Johnson’s position by accelerating the collapse of his main rival, Chancellor Risi Sunak. Sunak’s response to the pandemic was widely praised, and at the height of the party, a popular scandal-ridden chancellor seemed to many supporters to be an attractive alternative. Sunak is now plagued by political blunders, his own scandals and his own fine for breaking lockdown rules. He is now less popular than his boss. Johnson’s personal security may depend on his strengths over his domestic rivals, but it is the rivalry with Labor’s Ker Starmer that will determine the fate of his government. Although Starmer’s own ratings are not stellar, he is far ahead of such a declining prime minister. If he can maintain that advantage, then the Labor Party will head to the next election with the leader with the best score for the first time since the first years of Tony Blair’s presidency. However, it is also the Labor Party that provides a troubled government with some source of hope. Voters remain lukewarm about Starmer, and despite Johnson’s troubles, he still often fights with the Labor leader over who would make him the best prime minister. Public skepticism about the opposition’s ability to govern remains widespread. Among all the encouraging signs for Labor is a worrying precedent. In 1986, a Labor leader who had worked hard to restore his party’s credibility had a big lead over a scandal-ridden executive struggling with financial problems. A year later, Neil Kinnock faded and Margaret Thatcher recovered in a third election victory. Boris Johnson may have fallen, but he is not out yet. Robert Ford is Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester and author of The British General Election of 2019
