Comment TAIPEI, Taiwan — China launched a show of force against Taiwan on Thursday, firing missiles into the sea and threatening the island’s territorial waters in retaliation for Taipei’s hosting of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for a controversial visit. Military drills have sent tensions across the Taiwan Strait to their highest level in decades, raising fears of a dangerous miscalculation in one of the world’s most charged geopolitical flashpoints. As the maneuvers began, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Eastern Theater Command conducted long-range drills, with live fire and “precision strikes” in the eastern parts of the strait. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry Says PLA Fired 11 Dongfeng Ballistic Missiles in the waters off northeastern and southwestern Taiwan on Thursday afternoon. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan ushers in a new phase of China’s pressure campaign About 10 Chinese naval vessels crossed the median line of the strait on Wednesday night and remained in the area until midday on Thursday, while Chinese military aircraft also crossed the unofficial sea border on Thursday morning, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed source who informed about the developments. A day earlier, during Pelosi’s visit, 22 Chinese military aircraft breached the line, according to Taiwan’s defense ministry. Pelosi’s visit to Taipei this week angered Chinese leaders, who claimed the high-level delegation was a violation of China’s territorial rights and a deliberate provocation amid deteriorating US-China relations. In response, Chinese authorities announced military exercises in six areas around Taiwan, in what Taiwanese officials said amounted to an “air and sea blockade.” China’s ruling Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan, but Beijing claims the de facto independent republic of 23 million people constitutes an inalienable part of its territory and threatens to occupy it by force. The White House urged China not to overreact, saying Pelosi’s trip did not signal any change in US policy. But the Chinese military drills, which will last until Sunday, represent Beijing’s efforts to establish a new normal of encroaching on its adversary. In 2020, China denied the existence of the median line in the Taiwan Strait, after years of respecting the informal boundary that helped avoid conflicts in the 100-mile-wide waterway. “Beijing may use Pelosi’s visit as an opportunity to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” said Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group. The Global Times, a state-run nationalist tabloid, quoted an unnamed Chinese military expert as describing the drills as a “new beginning” for PLA activities around Taiwan, which would not be limited to their former territories and would be held regularly in Taiwan threshold”. China has in the past used periods of heightened geopolitical tension to change previously accepted norms of military behavior. In 2012, during a standoff with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, which Beijing calls the Diaoyu, China launched coast guard patrols in the area. These patrols continue today. The six exclusion zones in this week’s maneuvers affect Taiwan from all sides and for the first time include an area in the east of the island – a way of demonstrating China’s ability to target Taiwanese forces operating from bases in Hualien and Taitung . “It’s clear that they’re going to simulate how they might block Taiwan in the future,” said M. Taylor Fravel, director of the security studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. On Thursday, crowds gathered in Xiaoliuqiu, off the southwest coast of Taiwan’s main island, to watch for signs of Chinese firepower. Lee Chih-Hsiang, 38, who runs a guesthouse on the island, said his clients were mainly concerned about whether the exercises would affect their ability to dive. “I told them not to worry. If China was going to invade, they would have already passed,” he said. “It’s not something we can stop. Worrying is no use. If we have to go to war, we go to war.” Hsiao Wen-ming, chairman of the Donggang Fishermen’s Association in Pingtung near Taiwan’s southern coast, said he was concerned about the safety of local fishermen. The possibility of more exercises will make them anxious about going out to sea, affecting their livelihood in the long run. “The Communist Party does what it wants. What if it happens again?’ he said. Lu Li-shih, a former lieutenant in Taiwan’s navy, said the aim of conducting drills in Taiwan’s territorial waters was to intimidate residents. “They want regular residents to see,” he said, “the point is to hurt morale.” Taiwan said the island’s armed forces had activated defense systems and were monitoring surrounding areas. “We are not seeking escalation, but we are not backing down when it comes to our security and sovereignty,” the Defense Ministry tweeted. The planned drills are closer to Taiwan than China’s retaliatory drills during the last Taiwan Strait crisis in 1995-1996. Three of the six exclusion zones violate the 12-nautical-mile coastal zone that Taiwan claims as its territorial waters. During the 1990s standoff, China fired missiles that landed near the ports of Keelung and Kaohsiung after then-Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui visited the United States. This time, the crisis comes at a sensitive time for Chinese President Xi Jinping, as he prepares to take on an unprecedented third term at a political meeting in the fall. The timing of the exercises, after Pelosi’s departure from Taiwan, may signal Beijing’s desire to avoid direct confrontation with the United States. How Taiwan reacted to Pelosi’s visit, from ‘welcome’ to ‘American witch’ “It’s headed for Taiwan,” Ivan Kanapathy, a former deputy senior director for Asia at the White House National Security Council who served in the Trump and Biden administrations, said of China’s response. “But if military planes come within 12 nautical miles, it will be difficult to ask Taiwan to show restraint. They would have their rights to shoot something within their territory,” he said. Chinese military experts told CCTV that the exclusion zones were intended to demonstrate China’s ability to control the narrowest point of the Taiwan Strait, as well as where the Bashi Channel, south of Taiwan, meets the Pacific Ocean, and shipping lanes leading to the ports of Keelung and Kaohsiung. Meng Xiangqing, director of the Strategic Research Institute of the PLA-run National Defense University, described the approach as “closing the door and beating the dog.” Nakashima reported from Washington. Vic Chiang and Pei-Lin Wu in Taipei contributed to this report.
