Getty Images A large Chinese rocket booster is expected to make an uncontrolled descent from orbit to the Earth’s surface sometime on Saturday. It is very likely that most of the 23 tons of metal, tanks and other components will burn up as it tears through the atmosphere at literally incredible speed. Analysts expect a ton or two of debris could survive to the surface, falling over a long debris field that could span a large area of land. Fortunately, chances are that most of the ten-story Long March 5B (also referred to as CZ-5B) rocket booster will fall into the ocean. Some experts and organizations are monitoring the spent rocket after it became clear earlier this week that it would not be guided into a controlled disposal. The latest forecasts as of Saturday morning sometime around noon Pacific time. During the projected re-entry window, the CZ-5B is expected to make a wide sweep arc in the Southern Hemisphere that will pass primarily over large areas of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, but will also fly over parts of South America, China and other Asian nations. The latest monitoring and impact forecast from the US Space Force re-entry projects will not be available until 9:20 am. PT Saturday. The booster successfully sent the new Wentian laboratory module to the Tiangong space station last weekend. But the CZ-5B seems to lack the ability to do controlled reentry. The two previous missions using the large booster also resulted in uncontrolled re-entries, with one landing in the ocean and another shedding debris over west Africa. No major damage or casualties were reported in this case. The bottom line is that the risk to people and property is low, but could easily be reduced to almost zero risk with a few modifications that are common in the industry. Once inside the predicted re-entry window, no news is good news, as it will take some time to determine where the missile debris wound up, particularly if it falls harmlessly and largely unwitnessed into the ocean. Case in progress….
