The re-entry window for space junk has narrowed as its orbit decays and it is no longer possible for the rocket’s booster stage to fall into the atmosphere over the United States.
However, a populated area of Mexico on the Baja California peninsula near Cabo San Lucas is now the middle of the re-entry window, according to the latest assessment by the Aerospace Corporation.
The newer ground track also crosses South America and Southeast Asia, including parts of China itself. However, the vast majority of the potential reentry zone is over the open ocean.
Because the booster stage orbits the Earth every 90 minutes, the exact spot it will plunge from the sky is impossible to predict.
The falling space junk is the 23-tonne booster stage of the Long March 5B-Y3 rocket – China’s most powerful – that launched on July 24 to deliver the Wentian module to China’s Tiangong Space Station.
The latest ground track from the Aerospace Corporation shows the path of the falling rocket booster during the reentry window from 2:15 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. ET on Saturday. The yellow icon shows the debris in the middle of the window. The blue line shows the ground track before the middle of the window and the yellow line the ground track after the middle
The falling space junk is the 23-tonne booster stage of the Long March 5B-Y3 rocket – China’s most powerful – launched on July 24 (above) to deliver the Wentian Module to China’s Tiangong Space Station
The team predicts the rocket stage will withdraw from 12:24 p.m. until 2.24 p.m. ET on Saturday, a window still large enough for the debris to circle Earth about 1.3 times.
The Western Hemisphere will be in daylight during this re-entry window, meaning it’s unlikely we’ll catch a glimpse of falling debris. But the booster could fall into the dark along a trail that cuts through Indonesia and the Philippines.
The US Space Administration, which is also tracking the debris, did not immediately respond to an inquiry from DailyMail.com on Saturday morning.
As space junk gets closer and closer to Earth, predictions of when it will hit become more and more accurate.
The Aerospace Corporation said “there is a non-zero chance” of the debris landing in a residential area – in other words, it’s not impossible, so it could happen.
“A reentry of this size will not burn up in Earth’s atmosphere,” said the Aerospace Corporation, which is based in El Segundo, California.
“The general rule of thumb is that 20-40 percent of the mass of a large object will reach the ground, although it depends on the design of the object.
But according to Aerospace Corporation consultant Ted Muelhaupt, the overall risk to people and property on the ground is quite low since the vast majority of Earth’s surface in the potential reentry area is water, desert or jungle.
Speaking during a live briefing on Twitter on Thursday, Muelhaupt also said there was a “99.5% chance nothing would happen”.
“Personally, if this popped into my head, I would run out with a camera to see it because I think it would be more visual. [opportunity] rather than a real danger,” he said.
Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, added: “The worst case scenario in this event will be less severe than a cruise missile strike that we see every day in the Ukraine war, so let’s put some perspective here.” .
The strange booster delivered the Wentian module to China’s Tiangong Space Station (shown in the rendering above)
An engineer sits in front of a screen showing an animation of space debris at the European Space Agency’s (ESA) new Space Safety Center, located at the European Satellite Operations Center (ESOC) in Darmstadt, Germany
Muelhaupt said the chances of a particular person being injured by the debris are slim, on the order of six chances in 10 trillion.
By comparison, you’re about 5,500 times more likely to win the Mega Millions jackpot, which has odds of 1 in 303 million.
CHINA’S MARCH 5B LONG-RANGE MISSILE
On Sunday (July 24), China launched a new module for its space station on a Long March 5B rocket.
Unfortunately, the rocket’s booster — which weighs 22 metric tons (about 48,500 pounds) — has already reached a low orbit and is expected to fall back toward Earth.
The Aerospace Corporation says the rocket booster is scheduled to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere at 1:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, give or take an hour either way.
The Aerospace Corporation said there was “a non-zero chance” of the debris landing in a residential area – in other words, it’s not impossible, so it could happen.
But the odds of anyone on the planet being injured are much lower, about one in 1,000 to one in 230, and well above the internationally accepted accident risk limit of one in 10,000, Muelhaupt told reporters.
It is possible that part of the 21-ton Long March 5B rocket may not burn up completely as it re-enters Earth’s atmosphere.
It would then plummet to the surface in an uncertain location and at high speed – several hundred miles per hour.
This happened in May 2020, when fragments of another Chinese Long March 5B landed in Ivory Coast, damaging several buildings in the West African nation, although no injuries were reported.
Most spacefaring nations take precautions to prevent uncontrolled reentry, a lesson learned after large chunks of NASA’s Skylab space station fell from orbit in 1979 and landed in Australia.
China’s missile problem is rooted in the dangerous design of the country’s launch process.
Typically, the discarded booster stages re-enter the atmosphere immediately after liftoff in a planned orbit to jettison them over water and do not enter orbit.
However, the Long March 5B rocket booster enters orbit — and has no mechanism to control its descent as the orbit decays.
The shape of China’s falling Tiangong-1 space station can be seen in this radar image during its uncontrolled re-entry in 2018
Debris from US spacecraft has fallen to Earth before — but usually only in catastrophic disasters. Above, debris from Space Shuttle Columbia is seen in 2003 after it broke up during re-entry, killing all seven astronauts on board
Eventually, the rocket’s body will disintegrate as it sinks into the atmosphere, but it is large enough that many pieces will likely survive a fiery reentry in the debris rain down on Earth’s surface.
China has previously rejected accusations of irresponsibility, with the Chinese foreign ministry saying the likelihood of harm to anything or anyone on the ground is “extremely low”.
Many scientists agree with China that the chances of the debris causing serious damage are small, though others believe that launch plans like the Long March 5B pose an unnecessary risk.
Last May, one of the country’s Long March 5B missiles disintegrated on re-entry over the Indian Ocean, north of the Maldives.
Long March 5B had sent Tianhe, the first building block of China’s new space station, into orbit in April.
There were concerns that it might crash into a residential area on land, although it eventually fell into the ocean.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson criticized Beijing and insisted it was “critical” for China and other countries to “act responsibly and transparently in space.”
“Space-traveling states must minimize risks to people and property on Earth from re-entries of space objects and maximize transparency about these operations,” he wrote in a statement.
The Wenchang Space Launch Center, from which the Wentian module was launched on July 24, is a rocket launch site on Hainan Island, China
Wentian, a research laboratory dedicated to science and biology experiments, is already attached to the main body of the space station, called Tianhe.
It is to be followed by a second research lab module, Mengtian, which will start in October this year.
When Mengtian attaches to the rest of Tiangong, construction of the space station will finally be complete, although Beijing also plans to launch Xuntian, a space telescope that will orbit the space station, in 2024.
Tiangong (meaning “heavenly palace”) will compete with the aging International Space Station (ISS), which is operated by the US, Canadian, Russian, Japanese and European space agencies.
It will include three modules, although two other spacecraft – Shenzhou and Tianzhou – carrying crew and cargo respectively, can also dock at the station.
Once completed, the Tiangong space station will weigh about 66 tons, much smaller than the ISS, which launched its first module in 1998 and weighs about 450 tons.
It is expected to have a lifespan of at least 10 years.
TIANGONG: CHINA’S NEW SPACE STATION CONSISTING OF THREE SEPARATE UNITS AND TWO DYNAMIC SPACECRAFT
China’s space station is called “Tiangong”, which means “Heavenly Palace”. Tiangong consists of many different sections that start one by one. In April 2021, the core module, called “Tianhe”, was released. The first crew arrived at Tianhe two months later. In July 2022, Wentian, a smaller module where research experiments will take place, is connected to Tianhe. In October 2022, a second research laboratory module, Mengtian, will also be attached to Tianhe. When it does, the Tiangong Space Station will be complete. Two other spacecraft that can dock with the station – Shenzhou and Tianzhou – respectively carry crew and cargo, and are not considered part of the station itself. China also plans to launch Xuntian, a space telescope that will orbit the space station, in 2024. 3D rendering of the Chinese Space Station or Tiangong Space Station as it will look when fully constructed. Tianhe will be the primary living space for three crew members…
