The most telling sign of this is when ambitious ministers keen to keep their jobs come out with their 11th hour endorsements for Liz Truss after waiting to make sure they pick the winning horse. The race has also begun to follow a more predictable playbook. Like Boris Johnson, Truss started her campaign slowly and limited early media appearances and therefore opportunities for gaffes. Like Johnson, her thick-skinned campaign was a strong boost. Rishi Sunak began as pragmatism and seriousness – like Jeremy Hunt – but has since been forced to throw away more and more red meat to catch up to his opponent, just as Hunt ended up in the final weeks of his campaign. But Sunak’s campaign isn’t giving up, and lawmakers are quietly saying the race may be closer than expected. It is true that the narrative of Truss’s sure victory bears closer scrutiny. Her lead was dominant in YouGov polls of party members – around 24 points – but the last poll was on 21 July. It found that 31% of members intend to vote for Rishi Sunak, while 49% intend to vote for Liz Truss. Another 15% currently do not know. But the Conservative membership is hard to poll – although YouGov has an excellent track record. Polling before the 2019 Johnson-Hunt result correctly predicted the outcome, but gave Johnson a much larger margin of victory than he had. MPs from both the Truss and Sunak camps are conducting their own poll of union members. Most believe Truss is on course to win, but will point out that the vote is very soft. Many MPs described the ad-hoc local vote of members as spontaneous with a significant number of undecideds. One said they didn’t think the ballots would be returned as quickly as in previous years, despite the conventional wisdom that members return their ballots within days, which would have given Sunak just a few days to turn his fortunes around. Another MP said that their older members generally gave a break for Sunak and younger members for Truss, suggesting that older members were less likely to take part in an online vote. The other indication that the race may be tighter than expected is a poll of conservative candidates that put just one point between the pair. A former cabinet minister said they had taken an informal poll of their members, finding an almost even split, with a third undecided. Even then, the electorate is unpredictable – members may not say they support an opponent if they know their MP is supporting another. Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST There is one thing very much in favor of Truss, regardless of the polls. He has the drive. Often polls that show one candidate in front have a way of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies. Truss now has a flood of endorsements from cabinet ministers such as Nadhim Zahawi and Brandon Lewis, who believe they can see where the wind is blowing. Penny Mordaunt, who finished third in the leadership race, has pledged her support for the foreign secretary ahead of Monday’s showdown in Exeter. Sunak was the candidate who once had that momentum – bringing on board Grant Shapps, Dominic Raab and Jeremy Hunt as big supporters who thought they were picking the horse to beat. This may be a sign to everyone in this race that the wind can still change very quickly.
