The situation quickly escalated last week. China first announced live-fire military drills when the US speaker was due to land in Taiwan in an air force aircraft. During that exercise, missiles were fired over the capital Taipei for the first time, drones flew over Taiwan’s offshore islands and warships crossed the median of the Taiwan Strait in what the self-ruled island’s military said amounted to with “exclusion” practice. On Monday, China decided to extend those threatening military exercises, which have significantly disrupted shipping and air traffic for the island nation, and raised further concerns about a possible conflict in the region, even as the world grapples with the global impact of Russia’s war with Ukraine. East Europe. But could this conflict in Asia soon turn into war? Experts are divided on this. Michael Chang, who managed Taiwan’s 1996 missile crisis when he was deputy secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council, told local media that the drills could be a preview of a Chinese invasion scenario. Live-fire exercises are a demonstration of military might that involves the use of live ammunition to create training conditions as close as possible to actual combat scenarios. While China’s military capabilities far exceed Taiwan’s and a show of military capability is sure to add pressure, the island nation has been preparing for any eventuality and has lived in fear of a Chinese invasion for decades. The conflict between China and Taiwan dates back to the era of the civil war under Mao Zedong. Chairman Mao founded the People’s Republic of China by winning a civil war in 1949, sending the nationalist Kuomintang government into retreat in Taiwan, which has been self-governing ever since. Beijing still considers the island part of its territory and has vowed to eventually unite it with the mainland, using force if necessary. Chinese President Xi Jinping appears on a screen as Chinese Type 99A2 tanks take part in a parade (AP) But the timing of the conflict makes things more difficult as Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful leader since Chairman Mao, eyes an unprecedented third term. China is also far more formidable now under Xi than it was during the “Third Taiwan Strait Crisis” in 1996, the last time Beijing fired missiles near the island nation. “Xi does not want to be seen as a leader entering his third term – which is historic – with a sign of weakness, and wants to go down in history as the leader who unified Taiwan,” said Harsh V Pant. a foreign policy analyst at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation (ORF) tells the Independent. “So definitely the cost to Taiwan will increase.” However, he explains that China’s current aggressiveness stems mainly from the fact that Beijing had already “backed itself into a corner” on the issue of US House Speaker Ms. Pelosi’s visit, which she failed to prevent and it had to look like he was doing something. . “Once [China] it raised the decibel level so high, it meant it now had to react,” he says, adding that an all-out war with Taiwan may not be in Beijing’s interest either. Observers largely agree that the drills are a domestic face-saving exercise by China to offset the furor it caused over Ms. Pelosi’s visit and its failure to prevent it. Professor Pud adds that Beijing was testing America’s resolve by threatening to escalate the situation over Ms Pelosi’s visit, but knew its options were limited. “China also knows that all-out war with Taiwan at this stage is something that could be more destructive to its own interests,” adds Professor Pandey. There have also been concerns that the US and China might go to war over Taiwan, but experts agree that neither country has the appetite to escalate tensions so far. However, this does not mean that the increased tensions will not have their own large-scale impact, on Taiwan and the world, including the ties between the US and China, which are experiencing an unprecedented strain. Pelosi received Taiwan’s highest political award during her visit to Taipei (Taiwan Presidential Office) Experts say Ms. Pelosi’s visit and China’s subsequent response changed the status quo in the region in the long term. “I don’t expect things to escalate further, but rather the new status quo will remain at this level of escalation,” Lev Nachman, a political scientist and assistant professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, tells the Independent. “In the past week, we have seen threats of military aircraft moving from Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) to the middle line. This is much closer to Taiwan and shows China’s intention to raise the stakes of these military threats,” he adds. In the short term, Taiwan may have to worry more about economic concerns. While experts say trade is operating normally despite the fire drills, Taiwan was initially left to seek alternative routes for aviation and shipments, just as Ms. Pelosi left on Aug. 3. China’s military planners have long discussed a blockade of Taiwan, but until now, likely viewed the practice of such a move as too provocative, security experts say. The ability to impose a blockade would give Beijing the power to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table during a conflict. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command’s Rocket Force conducts conventional missile tests in waters off the east coast of Taiwan (Reuters) “I doubt there will be a formal blockade of trade routes … even now we have seen trade routes return to normal despite China’s claims that they will continue military exercises,” says Mr Nachman. “The economic factors that are more likely to arise from this are either from the sanctions imposed by China on Taiwan, or from the broader risk perceptions of investing in Taiwan in the short term.” Overall, Ms. Pelosi’s visit, while historic and symbolic of Washington’s strongest support yet, is proving to come at a significant cost to Taiwan. Officials inside China question the resolve of the US and its allies to support Taiwan. While countries have condemned the exercises, they did not immediately intervene to stop the blockade rehearsal. “Seeing how the US and its allies have responded to the exercises, how confident can Taiwan’s leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?” a former Chinese defense official told Reuters. But analysts say Taiwan was aware of the cost it would have to pay and appeared to be reacting calmly to the situation. “In the short term yes, arguably if Pelosi had not come, these exercises and sanctions would not have happened, at least not at this time,” says Mr. Nachman, adding that there is symbolic value to her visit from Taiwan’s perspective . “Whether the pros outweigh the cons or not, I think only time will tell.”
