What is different this time is that, for many residents, it is more difficult to keep track of the spread of the virus. Since easing mask orders and other restrictions earlier this year, local government leaders have told residents that those trying to avoid the virus should monitor public health data to assess personal risks. But local health departments report far less information to the public than they regularly did until this winter. Even health departments do not know as much now about who is positive for the virus, because so many people can now get tested at home. “We ask you to make your own risk decisions, but we do not give you the tools to do so,” said Neil J. Sehgal, an assistant professor of health policy at the University of Maryland. “. The sad reality is that there is no longer a good set of measurements you can look at to measure your risk today as opposed to last week or two weeks ago. “What we have done is force people to rely on their intuition.” Coronavirus monitoring in DC, Maryland and Virginia As of Thursday morning, the seven-day average had risen 54 percent last week in the county, 43 percent in Maryland and 27 percent in Virginia. These percentages, based on omicron sub-variable BA.2, are much lower than the shocking burden of cases caused by the previous omicron variant that hit the region hard in December and January. However, public health experts say they expect BA.2 to continue to cause an increase in cases. Some local universities, including American and George Washington, have reintroduced mask requirements that were reduced when the first micron wave subsided. Philadelphia announced this week that its mandate to cover indoor areas across the city would return, prompting questions for DC area officials about whether their jurisdictions would do the same. So far, no one has. American universities, GW among the last campus to restore masks Montgomery County officials said Wednesday they were not considering plans to reinstate a mandate. Interim Health Officer James Bridgers said he expects cases to peak and increase cases in the highly vaccinated county without causing significant increases in hospitalization or deaths, although officials are prepared to change course quickly, especially if rates rise. the return of schools from the spring break. “We’re worried,” said Marc Elrich (D) of the Montgomery County Executive, “because at some point you can not just let this thing run rampant.” Some civil servants are also sick with the virus, having avoided it for the first two years. DC Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) and Kenyan council member R. McDuffie (D) caught the virus earlier this month. Both said their symptoms were mild. Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeffrey C. McKay (D) called his symptoms “uncomfortable but manageable.” When Arlington County Superintendent Matt de Ferranti (D) fell ill, he sent a letter to residents, noting a sharp rise in cases in Arlington and urging people to wear masks and get vaccinated. “We know, and I can tell you firsthand, that you do not want to stick to Covid,” he wrote. Sehgal said he urges his neighbors and students to pay attention to such anecdotal indications of an increase in cases. “Think about your social circle, the number of people on your network who are currently infected or have been infected in the last week,” he said. Covid cases increase in the northeast as the BA.2 omicron sub-variant prevails The District, like many jurisdictions, no longer announces the number of new cases reported each day and has also stopped reporting many of the ample data it published on hospitalization and other measurements. Its website now has a much smaller set of metrics, including the weekly incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants. That number rose every week last month, from 51 cases in the week of March 6 to 204 cases in the week of April 3, the most recent reported. “How does he help me today, two weeks later, knowing what happened in March in the Region? “This is a story,” said Sehgal. “All I can tell you for sure is that we are three times worse today than at the beginning of the month. “But this average number of seven-day cases no longer seems accurate to me.” Officials say they still have ways to measure the community’s transmission levels. In Montgomery, for example, the health department asks doctors to report positive tests from patients who use kits at home, and the county closely monitors data from places such as schools and nursing homes that perform regular PCR tests. Cases at these rallies have not risen significantly since this week, said Sean O’Donnell, the county’s emergency preparedness director. “Throughout the pandemic, we never had the full picture,” O’Donnell said in a news release Wednesday. When covid-19 first arrived, he noted, the tests were not immediately available. The virus could have spread asymptomatically, suggesting that there were large groups of people who transmitted and inadvertently spread it. And in late 2021, a cyber attack destroyed Maryland’s covid-19 data reporting system for weeks. “There have always been more cases than our data represent,” O’Donnell said. “The question now is, how much has he been seduced by the very large distribution of home tests?” Because people often use PCR tests to confirm the results of a home test, a collision with the PCR test positive would still signal a blow to community transmission, said Earl Stoddard, the county’s assistant managing director. Stoddard added that there are other measurements and forms of surveillance that hint at case rates, such as the number of students absent from school or the number of county staff who refer sick. “People who react to a test result are much more important than us to have the test results in the back,” he said. Johns Hopkins University Public Health Professor Crystal Watson noted the good news: “Although we know we are losing a lot of cases, we are not seeing a huge increase in hospitalizations.” Watson noted a number of factors that could make the current BA.2-based phase take a different course from the winter micron wave. To find out where the pandemic is leading, look at the sewer On the one hand, omicron has inspired some to get vaccinated or to receive a souvenir, which means that people are now more protected. And the omicron infected so many people – some experts estimate that more than half of the US population caught it – that there is more natural immunity, although immunity can end after just 90 days. In addition, Watson noted, hot weather means people do more outdoor activities, reducing the risk of getting sick. But parts of the DC area developed Increased restrictions on the coronavirus, including vaccine requirements for food in restaurants, to fight the micron for the first time. There has been no such mobilization against BA.2, which could allow the sub-variant to spread more effectively in public places. “We just do not have these mitigation measures as we did in the winter,” Watson said. She praised the precautionary revival of her Philadelphia mask mandate. “I personally think this is a good way, because then you take precautionary action, you do not expect it to be so bad that it really affects hospitals,” he said. Watson said Americans do not face an endless cycle of metal variation that requires coverage and social distance: Increasing immunity over time, especially as the whole world is vaccinated, will reduce the impact of the coronavirus. However, regardless, she and Sehgal said, they can always wear masks in certain environments during the winter flu season to avoid getting sick. Teo Armus contributed to this report.
