One of my holiday reads a few weeks ago was Anthony Beevor’s story of the Russian Revolution and Civil War. Apart from the appalling and mercilessly intended brutality of the Bolshevik uprising, one of the most striking points of the book is Lenin’s, and even more so Trotsky’s and Stalin’s, disdain for any notion of Ukrainian independence. The Reds refused to rest until all life had been crushed out of any notion of Ukrainian separatism, making them in this respect virtually indistinguishable from the previous tsarist regime, which saw Ukraine as effectively part of Russia rather than a separate country. Never mind that Putin has the same opinion. Perhaps most surprisingly, it is also widespread in parts of Europe, particularly Germany, despite its strong rhetoric to the contrary. The persistent delay in arms procurement and a less-than-stellar disengagement from Russian energy supplies confirm the view that Germany’s heart is not really in it. The German economic model is essentially based on selling goods to the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia, with cheap Russian energy as the raw material for German competitiveness. You won’t give up this model lightly. It’s hard to see Ukraine ending well. Europe simply does not have the stomach for the painful sacrifices required to bring about Putin’s defeat – and it knows it. This article is an extract from the Telegraph’s Financial Intelligence newsletter. Sign up here to get exclusive insights from two of the UK’s leading financial commentators – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Jeremy Warner – delivered straight to your inbox every Tuesday.
