A surprising number of lawmakers in President Biden’s own party have been reluctant in recent days to say he should seek re-election in 2024, amid heightened fears that he will be too old or unpopular to win. Why it matters: Endorsing your party’s first president is usually so automatic that no one would bother to ask. But behind the scenes, there is a very real concern that going all in on Biden could be a mistake. Reality check: Some Democrats don’t want Biden to run again, for three reasons: Leading the news: Just this week, two top New York Democrats cast doubt on the president’s future.
Reps. Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney were asked, during a Democratic primary debate for the 12th congressional district, whether Biden should run again in 2024. Neither answered in the affirmative. That followed Sen. Joe Manchin’s (DW.Va.) refusal to commit to Biden ’24 while trying to get a deal on climate change down the stretch and the clear “no” to Biden ’24 from two House Democrats . in Minnesota during local interviews.
Yes, but: Some strategists see all this as a misdirection of Democrats’ nervous energy.
“The talk right now is more about worrying about ’22 than about ’24, and it’s not really helpful for Democrats,” David Axelrod, director of the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics and a former senior adviser to President Obama. “This is a Washington parlor game.” “Now is not the time for small talk. What voters say about an election two years after the change is as important as the Farmer’s Almanac.” Biden’s age is “an issue he will have to look at and, if he’s running, he’ll have to address. But he doesn’t have to now.”
The outcome of November’s contests and whether Democrats lose control of one or both houses of Congress are likely to shape Biden’s fate.
There is no partisan consensus on how to have a conversation about what comes next or who might be the strongest alternative if Biden ultimately decides not to seek a second term. Vice President Kamala Harris has the position as Biden’s No. 2, but faces concerns about her popularity within her own party as well as her general election prospects.
By the numbers: Biden’s overall approval rating with Americans has dropped to 39%.
Only one in four Democratic voters said they would like to run again in 2024, according to a July poll by The New York Times and Siena College. Age and work performance were the main factors. About 94% of Democrats under 30 don’t want him to run next time.
What they’re saying: Democrats running competitive statewide campaigns in swing states are quick when asked about Biden’s refocusing on the issues they say voters want their party to tackle — like abortion access, the economy and inflation , crime and gun violence.
John Fetterman’s Senate campaign told Axios, “Pennsylvanians care if they have a senator who is actually from Pennsylvania, understands their struggles, and will really fight for abortion rights and to fight inflation.” . Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak told us he is “more focused on reducing costs for Nevadans and continuing our state’s rapid economic recovery,” but that he would support Biden’s re-election.
“Biden is the leader of our party, and if he runs again I will support him, but if he is going to win Ohio in 2024, I will urge him to laser-focus on reducing costs for working families — that’s exactly what I’m going for.” this race,” Ohio gubernatorial candidate Nan Whaley told Axios. Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, is “taking the president at his word” that he will run again. His campaign told Axios that Shapiro is more focused on whether his GOP opponent Doug Mastriano, if elected, would throw out legal votes in 2024 if he didn’t like the result.
A handful of vocal House Democrats are clear they don’t believe President Biden should — or will — run again.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) said on a local radio show last week, “I think the country would be well served by a new generation of exciting, well-prepared, dynamic Democrats stepping up,” after answering “no” to the question if he would support Biden in 2024. Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) told MinnPost, “I think Dean Phillips and I are responsive and aligned with that, and I’m going to do everything in my power as a member of Congress to make sure that we have a new generation of leadership.” Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) told Axios he’s heard rumblings on the Hill that some want younger leadership, even though he doesn’t agree with it. “If the president decides not to run again, it’s obviously game on,” said Rep. Kildee. “But he has to make that decision.” Rep. Carolyn Maloney (DN.Y.) has said — on two separate occasions — that she doesn’t think Biden will run for president again. He has since made it clear that he wants to run, but asserted during an interview with CNN on Thursday: “I happen to believe you [Biden] it won’t run.”
