But overhauling the entire energy infrastructure of this country in a short period of time represents an unprecedented technical challenge that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, experts say. And pessimists are quick to point out that Canada does not have a good recent record of achieving ambitious, expensive infrastructure over the finish line. In Alberta in particular – where the ghosts of canceled pipelines continue to haunt the public consciousness – some observers believe the country has lost the political will and spirit of national unity needed to make great things happen. “We have spent a decade doing anything extremely difficult, if not impossible,” said Calgary-based energy analyst, executive and consulting firm David Jagger. “Canada’s recent history suggests that [net-zero] “The goals are ambitious, at least.”
Troubled Canadian energy projects
Yager points to Enbridge Inc.’s proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, which was shut down by the Federal Liberals in 2016. In 2017, the proposed $ 15.7 billion Energy East project was canceled by TransCanada after being marred by regulatory delays, new environmental criteria and line opposition along the main sections of the proposed route. Then in 2021, TC Energy’s proposed Keystone XL pipeline project was canceled by US President Joe Biden – the culmination of a decade-long battle that pitted the energy industry against environmentalists. There are many other high-profile examples of troubled Canadian energy projects, from the Coast GasLink pipeline – whose construction has led to nationwide blockades of the project by Indigenous rivals and their supporters – to the Pacific Northwest LNG of the Pacific, a gas terminal in Prince Rupert, BC, which was scrapped by Petronas Malaysia and partners in 2017, in part due to concerns expressed by local indigenous groups about the project’s impact on salmon spawning grounds in the area. As the Trans Mountain pipeline expands, the cost of this project has risen to $ 21.4 billion after it was purchased by the federal government for $ 4.5 billion in 2018. Trans Mountain has been plagued by increased security costs, route changes to avoid culturally and environmentally sensitive areas, and planning delays related to licensing procedures, among other issues.
Running in opposition
Opponents of these projects say the cancellations and delays show the need to end dependence on the fossil fuel industry and move towards greener energy production. But it is not just oil and gas projects that are becoming increasingly difficult to build these days, Yager said. In Ontario, wind farm projects have been canceled because they pose a threat to bat populations. In Quebec, a proposed hydroelectric line that would carry clean electricity to Massachusetts was scrapped when residents of Little Maine refused to allow transmission through their state. “You can no longer build a mobile phone tower without meeting opposition,” Yager said. “Where do you think you could put a new dam today? Nowhere.”
“All these things will have an imprint”
Experts have suggested that Canada should double, perhaps triple, the size of its electricity grid by 2050 in order to meet its zero-zero targets. This would require not only new transport infrastructure, but cross-border cooperation on new regional interconnections to help connect areas with access to clean energy in areas that are still carbon dependent. In addition, the federal government wants to increase Canadian production of critical minerals such as copper, aluminum and lithium in order to support a domestic supply chain for the electric vehicle industry. The outlook is dire, said Warren Mabee, director of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont. “All of these things have a footprint and will be a challenge to implement,” he said.
Political will
Canada is not the only jurisdiction where large-scale infrastructure projects are increasingly facing regulatory and societal licensing challenges. It’s a similar story in the US and Europe, Mabee said, adding that there is a real risk that clean energy companies will fail in the developing world or other jurisdictions where the rules are not as strict and the public does not have as much where and how things are built. He said he believed it was possible for Canada to pursue its zero-sum goals, but said the government should make it clear what the vision was – and then have the political will to enforce it. “The level of effort required will be comparable to dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic,” Mabee said.
The public interest
But Donna Kennedy-Glans, a former oil executive who served as Alberta’s deputy minister of electricity and renewable energy from 2013 to 2014, said she did not believe projects in the name of the energy transition would run counter to the same kind of obstacles that the oil and gas industry has faced in recent years. He said that while there are certainly people who oppose large-scale wind and solar parks, some of the largest renewable energy projects in the world are flourishing all over Alberta at the moment, and in general, the regulatory process has progressed smoothly. “Very few people are trying to stop this … people who are protesting are seen as opposed to green energy and this is not really a comfortable place to be,” said Kennedy-Glans. He added that he believed that even large-scale expropriation of private land for new transmission lines, for example, would face relatively little political and regulatory repulsion if carried out in the name of climate change. “There will be a different level of political will to do that,” Kennedy-Glans said. “I believe that people in the affected communities will be upset by this … but it will lead to the question ‘is this in the public interest and is it right?’”
