Jakob said she was prepared to take a cold shower and wear three sweaters in the winter if it would stop Russia’s war against Ukraine. But, he insisted, “the opposite is true,” adding: “Thanks to the sanctions . . . prices are rising and Russia is raising it like never before.” She was not the only one who had this opinion. A listener named Werner Bauer said the world might support punitive measures against Moscow for now, but once higher energy prices start feeding in “the mood will change completely.” For Europe’s politicians, the danger is that the mood may change sooner rather than later. Natural gas prices jumped 20% this week as Russia stepped up its energy pressure on Europe. As Kremlin-controlled Gazprom further cut supply through Nord Stream 1, the critical pipeline linking Russia to Germany, fears grew that Europe could be plunged into a full-blown energy crisis this winter – which would could cause enormous pain for consumers, increase costs for industry and send Europe into recession. The EU has shown a united front since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February. But forced to contend with rising inflation, a cost-of-living crisis and the very real prospect of an energy deficit in the depths of winter, Europe’s leaders now face a daunting test. Can they continue to hold the line in countering Russia’s aggression? Or will their solidarity crumble as pushback from angry consumers forces them to tone down their hostility toward Moscow? Silvio Berlusconi, center, and Vladimir Putin, right, in Crimea in 2015. Polls suggest the party of the former Italian prime minister, who maintains personal ties to the Russian president, could be part of the next government in Rome © Alexei Druzhinin/Novosti/Kremlin Pool/EPA Experts say Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculation is simple: the more pain his energy squeeze causes European businesses and consumers, the more pressure will be put on EU leaders to ease anti-Russian sanctions. Indeed, it is becoming increasingly clear that Moscow’s readiness to weaponize its energy exports will cause real damage to Europe. The European Commission has warned that a complete halt to Russian gas deliveries would hit the EU growth forecast by 2.5 percentage points this year. So far, however, there are no signs of a change of heart about Ukraine, either in the corridors of power or among Europe’s population at large. A recent poll in Germany, for example, showed that 70 percent of respondents want Chancellor Olaf Solz’s government to continue supporting Ukraine, even if it leads to higher energy prices. Meanwhile, EU leaders are urging voters to show what Josep Borrell, the bloc’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, has called “strategic patience”. “The war will be long and the test of strength will last,” he recently wrote in a blog post. But, he added, “we have no other choice.” “To allow Russia to prevail would be to allow it to destroy our democracies and the very basis of the international rules-based world order.” Such exhortations are combined with cautious messages — aimed at skeptics like Jakob and Bauer — that sanctions are working and Russia’s economy is already suffering. Economists say that while it is true that the ruble has recovered from its post-invasion slump, interest rates have fallen to pre-war levels and Russia’s oil and gas revenues are up this year, sanctions mean it cannot use all the foreign currency it has earned to buy the high-tech imports it needs to keep its manufacturing industry running. The Russian military’s ability to produce new tanks and guided missiles has also been affected, US officials say, undermining its war effort. EU officials also categorically reject any suggestion that the sanctions are having a more damaging effect on the European economy than on Russia. Valdis Dombrovskis, the Commission’s executive vice-president, says that while Brussels is still forecasting 2.7 percent growth for the EU this year, economists expect Russia to lose a tenth of its output over the same period. “We clearly see where the impact is,” he insists. “The best way to deal with the economic consequences of war is to end the war: to give Ukraine the support it needs to defend itself and win.” A recent analysis by a panel of experts at Yale University led by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld confirmed that Russia was taking a hit, concluding that business setbacks and sanctions are “catastrophically crippling the Russian economy.” They found that its imports had “largely collapsed” and it faced “severe challenges in securing vital inputs, spare parts and technology from reluctant trading partners”, leading to widespread supply shortages. “Looking ahead, there is no way out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as allied countries remain united in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia,” the authors concluded. However, maintaining this unity as the economic impact of energy sanctions kicks in could prove difficult. Some – such as Jens Koeppen, a Christian Democrat lawmaker from eastern Germany – are already calling for a review. In his constituency is the Schwedt oil refinery, which will be one of the biggest victims of the EU embargo on Russian oil that will come into effect at the end of this year. Giorgia Meloni, leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy, has so far backed former Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s line in support of sanctions on Russia © Fabio Cimaglia/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock “[Scholz] he said sanctions shouldn’t hurt us any more than they hurt the Russians — but that’s exactly what the oil embargo will do,” he says. Artificially starved of Russian crude, Schwedt could, he says, be forced to close, causing massive job losses and shortages of diesel and gasoline across the region. Supermarkets, hospitals, construction sites — even Berlin’s international airport — will run out of fuel, he warns. “We will see garbage piling up on the streets and queues forming at gas stations,” he says. “The whole life of society will cease.” Some dismiss it as scary. But even if it doesn’t come to that, German support for Ukraine could erode, says Andrii Melnyk, Ukraine’s outgoing ambassador to Germany. “The danger is that the current willingness to help Kyiv could disappear over time – that the more people worry about the rising cost of living, about how to heat their homes, the less solidarity they will have with Ukraine. ” He says. This would be nothing new, he adds. In 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the conflict it sparked in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region dominated international politics for months. “But my bitter experience in Berlin was that interest in both gradually began to wane,” he says. “And I don’t want that to happen again.” In Brussels, officials flatly reject any suggestion that European unity is fraying. Having pushed through six rounds of sanctions since the invasion, the EU followed through with a further package — or half-package, in the parlance of some officials — this month that tightens the regime by adding Russian gold and lender Sberbank to the EU’s list. Protesters in Schwedt, Germany march against a planned EU ban on Russian oil. Local MP Jens Koeppen says “the whole life of society will come to a standstill” due to expected job losses and fuel shortages © Christian Ender/Getty Images Despite the financial pain member states are feeling, “so far I don’t see any push to loosen sanctions,” says one EU diplomat. This is also the view from Berlin. “Every day we come closer to an energy crisis — and certainly, the mood can change,” says a senior German official. “But I am confident in our fiscal ability to limit the impact, and I am confident that our efforts to diversify our energy sources will pay off. A large part of the population knows that we have a strategy here.” Paolo Gentiloni, the EU finance commissioner, recalls the difficulty member states had in achieving comparatively “very, very limited initiatives” against Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 when he was serving as Italy’s foreign minister. The response this time was “impressive in terms of speed, solidarity and volume of sanctions”. While it would be disingenuous to suggest that sanctions will not come at a cost to the European economy, he still sees a “very good level of unity” between the G7 and the EU. However, there are some indications that in energy, at least, this unit is not as stable as it could be. This week the EU announced plans to cut gas consumption by 15%, but the agreement was reached with exceptions negotiated by member states. Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron and Mario Draghi in Kyiv this month. A German official says “every day [the EU is] approaching an energy crisis — and certainly, the mood can change [against support for Ukraine]© Ukrainian Presidency/Brochure/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images “It is politically explosive and very domestically decisive, which makes it difficult to find solutions that please everyone,” says the EU diplomat. Hungary held out for weeks against the EU’s embargo on Russian oil, giving up its resistance only after winning a breakthrough on Russian crude imports via the Druzhba pipeline. Budapest has insisted on maintaining pragmatic relations with Moscow, and this month its Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto traveled to Russia…
