Some argue that the arms race of populist politicians from Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak exemplifies a new conservatism, fundamentally changed by Brexit and Boris Johnson, which has gradually absorbed the priorities of those who supported Ukip. Others, however, say the heated debate on immigration is nothing new for a party that pioneered the hostile environment and was already trying to deport asylum seekers in Rwanda, while talking about tax cuts is almost mandatory when the Tories choose a new leader. But might all this be missing the point? Some pundits wonder if the avalanche of hard-right policy ideas, particularly on immigration and asylum, simply shows a party out of touch with a public now increasingly concerned about issues such as the cost of living. A change seems obvious. While the Conservatives have always had a strain of authoritarian right-wing opinion, this has been balanced by a more liberal wing – which, since Johnson became leader, has all but disappeared. Anna Soubry, the former Conservative minister who quit the party for the ill-fated Change UK, argues that people with views like her, Kenneth Clarke, David Gauke and Dominic Grieve were once “quite mainstream”. Chart showing that among Tory voters, immigration remains a bigger concern than health, Brexit or the environment “We weren’t the radicals, we were the norm, and now everything has changed,” he said. “Almost none of us are in parliament anymore and those who are left are now the fringes. And crazy people run the government.” As for whether the leadership contest shows a further drift to the right from Johnsonism, there were some signs of it in early skirmishes that featured rising American-style talk of identity politics and a drastically reduced state like Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman . With the cast now whittled down to Truss and Sunak, the focus was often on immigration and asylum, both promising to further harden Rwandan politics. Nick Lowles, chief executive of Hope Not Hate, which monitors populist right-wing and far-right sentiment, points to polling for the group which shows what he calls a “remarkable shift” among Tory members on immigration and related issues from 2018 to 2020. “The center of gravity in the Tory party has shifted quite a bit to the right,” he said. “Not surprisingly, whether candidates privately support Rwandan politics or not, they take a tough public stance.” Likewise, the leadership contest has seen a flurry of pledges to cut taxes, with even the once fiscally skeptical Sunak making a U-turn to say he would suspend VAT on energy bills. Graph showing that among UK adults, concern about immigration has halved since the Brexit referendum Neither has explicitly embraced the state-shrinking ethos of the likes of Badenoch, but repeated talk of efficiencies and more flexible organizations suggests a reduced role for public services. The latter two have also been particularly cautious about the climate emergency, with Truss pledging to suspend green levies on energy bills, while Sunak has ruled out any role for new onshore wind projects in England. The decision on which of the pair will succeed Johnson is made by members of the Conservatives, which largely explains the ideological bent. There are, however, some indications that the candidates may have misconstrued even their own audiences. New polling for the thinktank Onward has found Conservative voters particularly keen on the goal of net zero emissions by 2050, with almost a quarter saying they would no longer support the party if the pledge was scrapped. Rob Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester, argues that on immigration and taxation, the party also risks “becoming increasingly irrelevant to where the public is, even the Conservative-voting public”. Graphic showing Conservative MPs sit to the right of party members, councilors and voters on economic values He points to research led by Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London, which shows that while Tory members are, as you might expect, particularly more right-wing on economic issues, Tory MPs are even more right-wing. “This tax-cutting, Singapore Thatcherism across the Thames has always been a kind of elite pastime,” Ford said. “There has never been a mass electorate for such things. But the people who like it, like it so much that they’re pitching this idea to their members.” On immigration, YouGov’s long-term tracking of the three issues voters see as most important has seen the proportion choosing immigration more than half since before the Brexit referendum in 2016, while the proportion reported in the economy has increased. “For too long, and not without reason, the Conservative Party has seen being authoritarian on immigration and asylum as essentially a position it won’t lose,” Ford said. “And I don’t know if that’s true anymore. Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every weekday morning at 7am “Attitudes towards immigration are more positive now than they have been at any point we have polled in modern politics. It is a strange context in which to implement very harsh immigration policies. “It’s also not a pressing issue with voters in general or conservative voters or even socially conservative voters. This is an answer to a question no one asks anymore. “People are interested in paying their gas bills. The issue of the Ministry of the Interior that concerns them is obtaining a passport in time to go on vacation. Everything risks looking out of touch, which wasn’t the case in the past.”
