Why it matters: Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has prompted Sweden and Finland, two historically neutral countries, to join the defense alliance. Russia is threatening to strengthen its defenses in the Baltic, including the development of nuclear weapons in the region, in retaliation. What he says: “The people of Finland seem to have already decided,” Tupurainen told Sky News, noting that opinion polls show overwhelming support for NATO membership.

“We have to discuss this issue in detail in our parliament,” he said. “At this point I would say it is very likely, but no decision has been made yet.” “The brutal war in Ukraine is a wake-up call for all of us,” he added. “Not just for us Finns, it has to do with all the security borders in Europe.”

What to watch for: The Finnish government is expected to report to parliament on the changing security environment by the end of this month, launching a debate and finally a recommendation to apply for NATO membership, writes Zach Basu of Axios.

Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb told Axios that the government could decide to apply to NATO in May.