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Russian President Vladimir Putin will consider nuclear weapons only if he feels an “existential threat” to the country or its regime, according to foreign policy experts.
“They could be used, but in very, very specific situations,” former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev told Fox News Digital. “If Russia or any of these countries were really threatening in their hearts – existentially, that is, if NATO troops came to Moscow, then they would probably resort to nuclear weapons.”
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“But there is no real threat to Russia in the current circumstances,” Kozyrev said.
Russia has changed course in recent weeks after failing to occupy Kyiv despite a month-long campaign in northern Ukraine. The Russian military said it had achieved its goal in the first phase and would instead focus on security in the Donbas region – a move some have described as a “consolation prize” to offset the “sacrifice”.
Brent Sadler, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, suggested that Putin could use a regular nuclear strike if Russia faced a “massive military defeat” in Donbass.
“This can happen when a regular nuclear weapon can be seen as showing determination and effectively reversing any trends in the Russian military,” Sandler said. “I do not see them using city assassins, because that would certainly start World War III, and the assumption is that if it does, it will attack NATO.”
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Putin reiterated his nuclear threats after indications from Finland and Sweden that both could look to apply for NATO membership in June when the current member states meet in Madrid, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Kyrgyzstan on Sunday. that “all countries should be concerned” about Putin and the threat of nuclear weapons.
But Kozyrev, author of The Firebird: The Elusive Fate of Russian Democracy, said it was “absolutely” “barking” without “any way of biting” the Russian leader.
“Responsible military commanders will do everything possible to avoid such a scenario and to prevent the use of nuclear weapons unless they believe there is a real threat to their homeland,” he said.
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Putin has at times seen the very existence of NATO as an existential threat to Russia, but Kozyrev insisted that as long as Putin could maintain his regime, he would do nothing to threaten its position of power.
In this video image provided by the Presidential Press Office of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks from Kyiv, Ukraine, April 12, 2022. (Press Office of the Ukrainian Presidential Press via AP)
Part of the difficulty in trying to predict Putin’s possible moves is that the West continues to project its own thinking and logic in Moscow, which Sandler said is a “really bad trend” among Western leaders.
“For Putin, I think there is a tendency to reflect the image of the United States,” Sandler said. “We are getting better with the commitment and the Ukrainian people are helping us to understand better, but there is a real danger.
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“And it’s difficult now because Putin is isolated, to a large extent, and only deals with a very reliable group of advisers,” he said, adding that Putin could make “unpredictable calculations” from a Western perspective.
Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, went a step further by saying that Putin was operating on a “limited rationale,” which he equated with talking about “in-world” explanations for movies or TV shows.
“There is definitely an imaginary universe in which Putin operates and has interspacial explanations for what he is doing,” Kagan said. “And this is a problem because it is not clear that he believes everything the Kremlin says, which is difficult.”
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Kagan said the United States operated under the same framework during the Cold War and that officials at the time were more aware that the Russians were operating in a different logical direction from the West.
“We know it’s not the real world – that’s clear: it does not make decisions that make sense in the real world, but we also know it is not the Kremlin-centered fantasy universe,” Kagan added. “It’s closer to the real world than that, but how close to the real world is hard to say.”
title: “Former Russian Foreign Minister Reveals Precisely When Putin May Pull Trigger On Nuclear Weapons " ShowToc: true date: “2022-10-27” author: “Bernadine Daniel”
“They could be used, but in very, very specific situations,” former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev told Fox News Digital. “If Russia or any of these countries were really threatening in their hearts – existentially, that is, if NATO troops came to Moscow, then they would probably resort to nuclear weapons.” RUSSIA INVASES UKRAINE: LIVE UPDATES “But there is no real threat to Russia in the current circumstances,” Kozyrev said. Russia has changed course in recent weeks after failing to occupy Kyiv despite a month-long campaign in northern Ukraine. The Russian military said it had achieved its goal in the first phase and would instead focus on security in the Donbas region – a move some have described as a “consolation prize” to offset the “sacrifice”. Brent Sadler, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, suggested that Putin could use a regular nuclear strike if Russia faced a “massive military defeat” in Donbass. “This can happen when a regular nuclear weapon can be seen as showing determination and effectively reversing any trends in the Russian military,” Sandler said. “I do not see them using city assassins, because that would certainly start World War III, and the assumption is that if it does, it will attack NATO.” MIKE POMPEO MAKES PUTIN DEMAND FOR FINLAND AND SWEDEN Putin reiterated his nuclear threats after indications from Finland and Sweden that both could look to apply for NATO membership in June when the current member states meet in Madrid, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Kyrgyzstan on Sunday. that “all countries should be concerned” about Putin and the threat of nuclear weapons. But Kozyrev, author of The Firebird: The Elusive Fate of Russian Democracy, said it was “absolutely” “barking” without “any way of biting” the Russian leader. The story goes on “Responsible military commanders will do everything possible to avoid such a scenario and to prevent the use of nuclear weapons unless they believe there is a real threat to their homeland,” he said. UKRAINE: MORE THAN 900 SECURITY BODIES FOUND IN KIEV REGION, POLICE REPORT Putin has at times seen the very existence of NATO as an existential threat to Russia, but Kozyrev insisted that as long as Putin could maintain his regime, he would do nothing to threaten its position of power. Part of the difficulty in trying to predict Putin’s possible moves is that the West continues to project its own thinking and logic in Moscow, which Sandler said is a “really bad trend” among Western leaders. “For Putin, I think there is a tendency to reflect the image of the United States,” Sandler said. “We are getting better with the commitment and the Ukrainian people are helping us to understand better, but there is a real danger. MARIUPOL WARNS RUSSIA GETS READY TO CLOSE CITY TO “FILTER” ALL MEN FOR COMPULSORY SERVICE, WORK “And it’s difficult now because Putin is isolated, to a large extent, and only deals with a very reliable group of advisers,” he said, adding that Putin could make “unpredictable calculations” from a Western perspective. Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, went a step further by saying that Putin was operating on a “limited rationale,” which he equated with talking about “in-world” explanations for movies or TV shows. “There is definitely an imaginary universe in which Putin operates and has interspacial explanations for what he is doing,” Kagan said. “And this is a problem because it is not clear that he believes everything the Kremlin says, which is difficult.” Kagan said the United States operated under the same framework during the Cold War and that officials at the time were more aware that the Russians were operating in a different logical direction from the West. “We know it’s not the real world – that’s clear: it does not make decisions that make sense in the real world, but we also know it is not the Kremlin-centered fantasy universe,” Kagan added. “It’s closer to the real world than that, but how close to the real world is hard to say.”