One zone covers the narrowest part of the Taiwan Strait. Others could be used to block a major port or attack three of Taiwan’s main military bases, he told Chinese state television this week. The zone near Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan, where critical bases are located, “creates the conditions to close the door and beat the dog,” General Meng said, using a Chinese proverb that refers to blocking an enemy’s escape route. China would say that Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) was no longer valid and that any aircraft entering the airspace over the island would need permission from China or risk military conflict. Such a blockade would hurt Taiwan’s economy and encourage a stock market crisis. PLA forces operating in the east of the island would act as a “picket line” to prevent other countries – mainly the US – from intervening militarily. While there would be an outcry and it would affect international shipping lanes, a stronger international response is unlikely.
2. China invades Matsu and Kinmen Islands
The cluster of small islands in Fujian province, some of which lie less than 10 kilometers from the Chinese mainland, are considered by Beijing as part of its own territory. These include the Matsu Islands, northwest of Taiwan, and Kinmen, a chain of islands just east of the coast of the city of Xiamen in China. As a show of force and to test Western resolve, Beijing could invade some or all of the islands, home to about 20,000 people, at minimal cost.
