Much of what the far-right Rassemblement National leader wants to do, however – for the economy, social policy and immigration – is a breach of EU rules and her possible arrival at the Elysee Palace next weekend could to prove disastrous for the 27-member bloc. Le Pen may have abandoned previous commitments to pull France – a founding member of the EU, its second largest economy and half of the vital Franco-German machine that has powered it since its inception – out of the single euro currency and the bloc. In the 2017 election, fears about the economic consequences of this policy, especially among older voters worried about their economies, are widely seen as contributing to its heavy second-round defeat by pro-European Emanuel Macron. This time, the EU is not even named among the twelve key themes of Le Pen’s election program. Many of its specific policy proposals, however, blatantly run counter to its EU membership obligations. Opponents and commentators have called the strategy “Frexit in all but name”: an approach that, while it may no longer be aimed at removing France from the bloc, seeks to reshape it radically and could lead to a paralytic confrontation. with Brussels. “Le Pen’s policy in the EU is: ‘We will stay on the bus, but we will drive it off a cliff,’” said Mujtaba Rahman, director of Eurasia Group’s Advisory Division for Europe. “It would try to destroy the EU from within” and was “a much bigger threat to the EU status quo than Brexit,” he said. Pascal Lamy, who was the chief of staff to former European Commission President Jacques Delors, said a Le Pen victory would be a big shock on a larger scale “than Trump for the United States or Brexit for the United States. Kingdom”. Its “sovereign, protectionist, nationalist” agenda would “completely contradict France’s commitment to European integration” and include “proposals that completely violate the treaties that France has endorsed,” he said. The key to Le Pen’s plans is an early referendum on a proposed law on “citizenship, identity and immigration” that would amend the constitution to allow a “national priority” for French citizens on employment, social security benefits and public housing – a measure incompatible with EU values and free movement rules. Le Pen’s plans include a “national priority” for French citizens in areas such as public housing. Photo: Daniel Cole / AP The same referendum will establish “the supremacy of national law over European law” to allow France “not only to control immigration but, in every other area, to reconcile its European commitment with the preservation of national sovereignty and the defense of of its interests “. says her RN party. The aim would be to allow France to benefit from an “à la carte Europe” by choosing and choosing from the pieces of EU law that it likes and dislikes – something that is not the beginning of a bloc that has been vigorously excluded from 27 during the Brexit negotiations. with the UK. “It’s absurd,” said Jean-Louis Bourlanges, a member of parliament and chairman of the French parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “Once you confirm the supremacy of national law, you have no European law. “Marine Le Pen has rejected a formal exit, but her plan is not compatible with France’s continued EU membership.” Le Pen also aims to restore border controls on imports and people, in breach of EU and Schengen rules, and unilaterally cut France’s contribution to the EU budget – when the bloc’s multiannual financial framework for 2021 to 2027 has already been determined. Further plans to reduce taxes on basic goods and fuel will violate EU free market rules. Big questions may remain about how much of this program could be implemented, both within and within the EU. Le Pen’s ambitions would be thwarted if he failed to win a parliamentary majority in the June elections, and EU legal experts Points out that even holding a referendum on the supremacy of national law would violate European treaties. French lawyers also say the country’s highest court, the Constitutional Council, will reject Le Pen’s plan for a referendum by presidential decree – avoiding the need for parliamentary approval – precisely because any referendum aimed at amending the constitution must have the support of lawmakers. and senators. The EU as it exists today, Le Pen said earlier this year, was “neglected by peoples and dominated by nations”, an “intrusive and authoritarian” bloc trapped in “a globalizing ideology of open borders” that was “destroying our identity”. Her vision, she said, was an “alliance of nations; with respect for peoples, histories and national sovereignty”, whose members could “favor their own public procurement companies” and “restore permanent control” over their borders. But even if it failed to assert the supremacy of French law and establish a national preference, the small letters in Le Pen’s program seem certain to lead France relentlessly on the road to a conflicting relationship with the EU – resulting in political chaos. since France is a necessary role within the bloc. “It simply came to our notice then [the EU] “or to paralyze it,” said Georg Riquelze, a former European Commission official who predicted a “dramatic weakening” of the EU’s capacity to deal with crises, from security to climate. Le Pen has pledged to withdraw France from NATO’s integrated command structure, removing troops and weapons from joint management. It also wants to dismantle French wind farms, a blow to France’s EU renewable energy targets. “Any issue will just be more complicated,” Riekeles said. EU experts worry that a Le Pen-led France would also give a significant boost to national-conservative governments in countries such as Poland and Hungary, likely to ally with capitals that have long challenged the rule of EU law and are in battle with Brussels. “Any attempt to change things in Poland and Hungary would stop,” said Gwendoline Delbos-Corfield, a French MEP who works for the rule of law. While the MEP of the Greens believes that the EU institutions and the single market will continue under Le Pen’s presidency, she believes that “it would be the end of a European Union of rule of law based on values”. For the EU, a President Le Pen could mean a five-year “chair leave” crisis, Lamy suggested, referring to the events of 1965 when then-French President Charles de Gaulle boycotted European institutions in a series of budgets. “It would definitely be a big problem, in the short term, the next five years,” he said. “I find it hard to believe that if he was elected with the program he has, he would be re-elected.”
