As of Tuesday morning, an MP had been expelled from the party after being found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy. Another had sparked outrage at his former colleague’s statement of support – all just a few weeks before the upcoming local elections. Then, in a sparsely populated Downing Street, the phone rang. The Metropolitan Police’s call to inform the prime minister that he would be among those fined for attending a Downing Street rally for his birthday sparked shocked officials. It is a measure of the threat posed that this weekend, following the implementation of an extremely controversial asylum policy and a coordinated campaign in support of the Prime Minister, his team will be relieved that the number of MPs requesting his resignation has been reduced to about a dozen – and only one minister resigned. Among the scandals that rocked Johnson’s leadership was the ouster of Imran Ahmad Khan from the Conservative Party last week after he was found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy. Photo: Dominic Lipinski / PA However, as Tory MPs prepare to reshuffle to Westminster this week, many had already concluded that any predictions that the threat to Johnson’s position had subsided were seriously exaggerated. “It is still deep in the forest,” said a former minister. “We have local elections and that is what is holding back most of our colleagues. But once the locals are done, and if there are more fines, then it becomes much more difficult ground. “I do not think it has been signed, sealed and delivered – and they know that at No. 10. They are very upset.” While the timing of Met’s phone call during the political shutdown prompted a scattered No. 10 group to respond, it ultimately helped the prime minister. In the hours following the news that both Johnson and Chancellor Risi Sunak were fined, the Tory MP WhatsApp team remained silent, with no one wanting to be the first to give their verdict in the most leaked forum in Westminster. All afternoon, the deafening silence was broken only by Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis, welcoming the third in a row of Channel 4 Derry Girls and South Swindon MP Robert Buckland, tweeting his effort to Wordle. Finally, Nadine Dorries, the extremely loyal secretary of culture, led a belated responsibility for the prime minister’s support of the prime minister. His real savior, however, came in the incredible form of Sir Roger Gale – an extreme critic of Johnson. As a sign that there would be no immediate danger to Johnson’s presidency, he concluded that his removal would now be a “gross indulgence” while the crisis in Ukraine continued. The Prime Minister’s birthday party in June 2020 violated Covid’s rules at indoor social gatherings and resulted in a fine. Photo: Andrew Parsons / AP Another blow to Johnson’s luck was that, to everyone’s surprise, Sunak was also fined for attending a birthday party. It could so easily have been different. It is understood that, having arrived early for a meeting, Sunak hovered at the party door for quite some time before entering the hall. A sadly dated photo of the chancellor, his allies believe, is to blame for his fine. This meant that those who saw Sunak as Johnson’s natural successor could not suddenly denounce the prime minister, while Sunak could not resign without the collapse of the government. Even then, the allies said he spent a miserable few hours looking at his future, regardless of the impact, but avoided giving up. Despite these plots, however, several lawmakers said Saturday night that the security of Johnson’s position is now being overestimated. All those who spoke to the Observer considered that further fines were inevitable and would be more difficult to justify. In particular, Johnson’s presence at a “bring your own drink” event to the Downing Street garden, as well as an alleged party at Johnson’s Downing Street apartment – which he denies No. 10 – are most likely to be damaged. “I think a birthday is a little beer compared to what’s coming,” said a veteran lawmaker. “[Potentially] six other fines? And what about the flat party? “ Our view on the doorstep was that people are angry with us, but there is no appetite for a Labor North MP As Torres MPs began browsing their emails late last week, various responses reflected that of Gale – that “no now” largely meant “never”. Many agree that the key moment remains the publication of Sue Gray’s full Downing Street party report, which will come as soon as all Partygate fines are issued. Correspondence from Tory MPs to voters seen by the Observer includes Kevin Hollinrake, a Thirsk and Malton MP, who condemned the breach and added: “There is a demand within the [ministerial] code that any significant violation would require the resignation, and this of course will apply to the Prime Minister. Sir Christopher Chope, a lawmaker on the right of the party, also said ominously: “Before I decide which course of action to take, I will wait for these further reports.” Sir Gary Streeter, a veteran South West Devon MP, was more blunt. Responding to an email saying it was “one of many”, he said: “I submitted a letter of no confidence several weeks ago, which was widely reported. “My position remains unchanged.” Interior Minister Priti Patel and Rwandan Foreign Minister Vincent Biruta at a press conference in Kigali. The UK government has sparked outrage after announcing a plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing. Photo: Jean Bizimana / Reuters There are also dangerous moments next week. In addition to the imminent threat of further fines, it is understandable that Members approached the President to refer the Prime Minister to the Committee on Privileges as to whether he had misled the House about a party. Other MPs are said to be on the sidelines. Alex Chalk, the attorney general, who is believed to be backing the resignation, went as far as he could without resigning in a statement to his local newspaper, saying he would not defend the prime minister’s actions. He is one of five QCs at the frontbench. A sixth, Justice Minister Lord Wolfson, has resigned. Local elections have also been pivotal to test public support for Johnson, a leader whom many lawmakers backed only after being convinced of his electoral draw. Is the anger over Partygate over? “I think a lot [Partygate] has been invoiced “, said an MP in a marginal position. “But this is not to minimize the damage caused by it. I do not think any of us should be fooling ourselves. It has turned him into a mere mortal unlike Super Boris. “I do not think it has that kind of glow – it’s all gone.” In last week’s election campaign, the Tories’s candidates did everything they could to divert attention from national politics. Walking on Tattenhoe’s Milton Keynes Wing, Shazna Muzammil talked about parking, potholes and rubbish. A candidate for Tory council, she has focused her campaign on things she believes are most important to the locals. But it becomes more difficult to keep the conversations on track. National issues, including the party and the cost of living, continue to come to the fore. “What is happening at the national level certainly makes it more difficult,” said Muzammil, 44. “The prime minister is doing well in Ukraine, but people never talk to you about it because they have nothing to complain about.” The Tattenhoe, a relatively affluent Milton Keynes pocket characterized by green spaces and attractive new homes, has two conservative advisers and one Labor. Next month, the Labor Party headquarters is available – an opportunity that Muzammil hopes to seize. Last year, the Tories won six seats across Milton Keynes to become the largest party on the council, although no party has overall control. Whether they will win new voters or cling to existing ones is uncertain. At Milton Keynes last week, some Tory supporters admitted their faith was faltering, while other voters remained on the fence. Frederick, 77, a former Stony Stratford-based engineer, voted for the Conservative candidate in the last local election, inspired by the national leadership. “It seemed to be going well – things seemed pretty flat,” he said. Partygate made him wonder if he deserved to vote at all. “You feel you can not trust them – what they say or do,” he said. “Boris Johnson lied – there is no doubt about it. I’m sorry for the people who had friends and relatives who died in the hospital and could not go in and say goodbye. “And they have bloody parties.” He will decide who will vote locally “after a pint,” he said. “But it will not be conservative,” he added. He has previously voted for Labor, but is “not so sure” about the party leadership. “Maybe it would be a good idea to go for the Liberal Democrats.” Another local, Vicky Elizabeth, 39, a teacher from Bletchley, is considering voting for the Liberal Democrats. He wants city councilors to focus on environmental issues and the redevelopment of the main road, as well as on improving safety for residents, and “keeps an open mind”. But he said: “I can not imagine that they will be Conservatives, even if they were defending something amazing locally. “With the changes in education and the Tory storm, there is too much water under the bridge at the moment.” However, despite the public outrage – with a Tories describing…
