The victory is all the more remarkable since it was achieved against fierce GOP opposition in the 50-50 Senate, where Democrats had no room for error. Democrats spent months negotiating among themselves, as moderate senators like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona extracted concessions that progressives had no choice but to accept to save the bill. Coal state Sen. Manchin revived the measure after reversing his opposition late last month and agreeing to a clean energy boost in exchange for concessions on fossil fuels. At times, Biden has been in the weeds trying to implement this important piece of his domestic agenda. The credibility of his presidency depended on overcoming obstacles to major legislation that changed the economy. But in recent weeks, beset by declining approval ratings, he let the Senate do its bidding and accepted an outcome that fell far short of his original aspirations for a Franklin Roosevelt-style makeover. The Senate eventually voted on it, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie, shortly after Biden emerged from the White House from his second Covid self-isolation. All major new laws are judged in many ways — for their impact on the lives of Americans, for how they change the political environment, and for how they appear in retrospect, many years later, in the history books. So even if the Democrats’ achievement may not be rewarded at the ballot box anytime soon, it may not go unnoticed in the long run.
How voters and history will judge the great victory of the Democrats
If, as expected, this bill passes along party lines in the House this week, its real impact will be measured by whether it lives up to Democrats’ claims that it will reduce carbon emissions at a time when the deadly effects of climate change – – seen in extreme floods, droughts and fires – are becoming increasingly apparent. The party and the White House also say the bill could have a huge human impact, helping older Americans who struggle to pay for some vital drugs and creating real improvements in quality of life for millions. And by expanding Obamacare subsidies, this measure will lock in and prolong one of the greatest achievements of democratic governance in the 21st century. Then there are the electoral fallout from the passage of a bill that, like most legislation, will take months and years to fully implement and thus could not have immediate, transformative political consequences. It is unclear whether this push, which would enshrine a major piece of Biden’s agenda, will save the President’s rapidly dwindling political fortunes. His approval rating, which has fallen below 40 percent, threatens to drag Democrats down and crush their hold on Washington in November. Democrats have faced a fierce political storm for much of this year as a pandemic-depleted nation grapples with rising gas and food prices. That legislative achievement could at least give them a chance to reconnect with their constituents, some of whom have given the president poor marks, according to recent polls. Democrats can argue that they have made the most sweeping investments to fight climate change in history, something important for generations — and especially young voters, who will live with a warming planet. “This is an absolutely historic investment in climate change,” White House climate adviser Gina McCarthy told CNN’s Pamela Brown Sunday, touting the measure’s impact on promoting clean energy, growing jobs and saving money. of the consumers. Meanwhile, to get older voters to the polls, Democrats can highlight drug price cuts now that Medicare will have some bargaining power. Coupled with the Supreme Court’s overturning of the constitutional right to abortion and the recent easing of gas prices, Democrats have reason to hope that their voters will turn out this fall. Driving grassroots voters to the polls may not save the House, which many election analysts believe is headed for the GOP. But it could play into the crucial handful of races that will decide control of the Senate, where Republicans need to win just one seat to win a majority. More broadly, the poor political environment for Democrats has cleared up somewhat, especially as Republicans nominate some candidates who could complicate the GOP’s ability to capitalize on what was shaping up to be a favorable year for them. Even Biden’s fortunes appear to have turned in recent weeks after being besieged for much of the last year as crisis after crisis, at home and abroad, has befallen his White House and derailed his ambitious plans. A bumper jobs report on Friday helped smooth fears that the economy is headed for recession. And the President presided over the assassination of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan, going some way to repairing his reputation as a shrewd commander-in-chief, tarnished by the chaotic end to the US war in the country. However, history shows that the party of first-term presidents — especially those who will have an approval rating below 50 percent — tends to get hammered in midterm elections. And Republicans sense an opening. They characterize the Senate measure as yet another massive spending bill that will exacerbate already soaring inflation. Economists are divided on Democrats’ claims that the bill will lower the cost of living. But if everyday costs continue to rise, it may not matter politically what the truth is — it could create a damaging impression that Biden is once again fanning the flames of inflation with a massive spending bill. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell sought to immediately get his party’s midterm message across, accusing Democrats of introducing “huge job-killing tax increases” and a “war on America’s fossil fuels” at a time of high energy prices. “The (Democrats’) answer to runaway inflation that they’ve created is a bill that experts say will not substantially reduce inflation,” the Kentucky Republican said. “The American people are clear about their priorities. Environmental regulation is a 3% issue. Americans want solutions to inflation, crime and the border.”
A strong legacy even if it doesn’t translate into November
Biden was quick to pounce on Sunday’s Senate vote as a sign of momentum for his presidency. “Senate Democrats sided with American families over special interests, voting to lower prescription drug costs, health insurance and everyday energy costs and reduce the deficit while making the wealthiest corporations finally pay their fair share them”, said the President. how Democrats, who have struggled to effectively advertise his victories as President, will sell the bill to voters. The passage of his health care and climate change bills in the Senate sets Biden up for a domestic legacy that rivals any recent Democratic President. This adds to Biden’s past successes in Congress, including a bipartisan infrastructure deal that eluded his two most recent predecessors, the first major federal gun safety legislation passed in decades and a pandemic rescue plan early in his presidency that the White House said it raised millions of children. from poverty. Those accomplishments may not move the political needle for Biden, especially if voters have already made up their minds about his presidency, with polls showing most Americans believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction. The President’s recent successes also seem unlikely to quell the drumbeat of debate about whether he should run for re-election in 2024, when he will be in his 80s. The age issue isn’t going away for Biden. But even if the President doesn’t get a substantial short-term boost to his winning streak and sees his poll numbers rise significantly, the past few weeks have been crucial in shifting the narratives about his presidency. Most administrations are ultimately remembered for a handful of accomplishments that create a kind of narrative shorthand to encapsulate a President’s place in history. If the global climate push succeeds in mitigating the planet’s most devastating impacts in the coming decades, Biden — who has done more than anyone else in office to address the threat — will be remembered for taking action . The same will happen if a new era of electric vehicles is enshrined in energy legislation and the US begins to turn its back on the internal combustion engine — a cornerstone of US mobility and prosperity for decades. Biden is also likely to receive credit from future historians for his role in capitalizing on the Obama administration’s advances in expanding access to health care. The Inflation Reduction Act fell far short of early hopes to transform home health care, increase education funding and offer dental and vision plans under Medicare. Those are some of the reasons Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont, was so critical of a bill he later voted for despite his reservations. “This reconciliation bill doesn’t go anywhere near enough to address the issues facing struggling working families. But it’s a step forward, and I was happy to support it,” Sanders said in a statement. But political success in the United States, on issues from civil rights to social welfare, almost always comes in increments, with one presidency building on the gains of another. Given the vicious and widening political differences of modern…