The Padres have made a habit of pitching moves during AJ Preller’s tenure as general manager. This is the biggest, as it gives San Diego a 23-year-old who is on a Hall-of-Fame track and who is under team control for two more seasons. The Nationals, for their part, are receiving several young players, some of whom could be great in Washington. Now they are moving on, likely under new ownership, without the ability to be competitive for at least a few years. We here at CBS Sports aren’t judgmental at all, and that means we offer near-instant analysis on big trades this time of year. Below, you’ll find grades for both the Padres and Nationals, along with explanations for those ratings. With that out of the way, let’s start by recapping the deal: Fathers receive Nationals receive
1B Luke Voit SS CJ Abrams LHP MacKenzie Gore BY Robert Hassell III BY JAMES WOOD RHP Jarlin Susana
Parent rank: A
Professional baseball is, at its core, part of the entertainment industry. We try to overlook this reality most of the time on the grounds that we want baseball to be something better, something more. Accepting that baseball is part of the entertainment industry is not a bad thing and does not preclude these romantic feelings. No one ever had it against movies or music. Recognizing baseball as primarily entertainment, and removing dogmatic devotion to it as Something Greater, only becomes a problem when you don’t find the product entertaining. Padres fans have been there and done that. They’ve spent summers watching a lifeless product faced by Chris Denorfia, Will Venable and Chase Headley wearing those forgettable generic uniforms. We mean no disrespect to this trio of players, but you can sympathize with any Padres fan pinching himself today, realizing he’ll be accepting the fall by watching a souped-up trio of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto. (They’ll be wearing technicolor jerseys, too.) No executive seems to understand and appreciate the entertainment side of things more than AJ Preller. Say what you will about his trades and his methods (and other teams make fun of freewheeling ways all the time), but the man knows how to fire up his fan base by making big-name jerk moves, all in pursuit of winning the first World Series in franchise history. Whether the Padres achieve that goal or not — and they seem more suited to do so than ever before — they’re sure to have fun trying and sell plenty of tickets and merchandise along the way. Soto is one of the best hitters, and therefore one of the best players in the majors. To put it bluntly, he’s having his worst season (as judged by OPS+) of the Pandemic Era. He’s still hitting .246/.408/.485 with a lot more walks than outfielders. If your “lows” involve an on-base 40.8 percent of the time and a .240 ISO… then, friends, that’s an indication you’re dealing with an elite talent. Soto is; There’s a reason people keep throwing around names like Ted Williams when discussing his place in the game. For those who haven’t had the pleasure of watching Soto play consistently, he does everything you could want at the plate. He has excellent command of the strike zone. He has good bat-to-ball skills, allowing him to make contact at above-average rates. and his awareness of the barrel is such that he consistently posts average exit velocities that rank near the top of the league. The only real knock on Soto is that his defense is often substandard, but that’s a minor issue given his offense. Adding Soto to an already good roster for up to three playoff games is the kind of opportunity that doesn’t come around often. It’s the kind of high-leverage maneuver where any cost is justified, even if it means mostly emptying what’s left of your farm system. The Padres did just that here, though they did manage to keep some interesting youngsters, including catcher Luis Campusano and infielder Jackson Merrill. Again, the cost almost pays for itself when you get a player of Soto’s caliber for many years. That the Padres got more than Soto here is hard to fathom — and that “more” is another good, in-demand player… well, geez. Bell is an impending free agent who represents a clear upgrade over Eric Hosmer. In 103 games this season, he’s hitting .301/.384/.493 (152 OPS+) with 14 home runs and just 12 fewer walks (69). It’s not everyday you can add a batter who can hit for average, walk and slug — the Padres added two on Tuesday, giving them a deeper, stronger lineup for what is likely to be a glove of October. Even so, there’s no guarantee the Padres will advance beyond the wild-card round. It’s a best-of-three streak, and weird things happen in three-game streaks all the time in this sport. But it seems like every time baseball people invoke probabilistic analysis these days, it’s to justify getting up or standing pat. Our team only shot 20 percent in the playoffs, what were we supposed to do? What Preller seems to be saying is: what if we treated probability as a reference, not a guide. nothing ensures that the numbers are done like groups that treat them as one. The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets have big impact talent, they sure do. the only way to beat it is with your own talent. The Padres have their share now, and it’s all thanks to Preller. It might work, it might not. Give Preller this much: baseball was a lot more fun, in San Diego and elsewhere, because of him. Check the opt-in box to confirm you want to join.
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National grade: D
It doesn’t matter who the Nationals got in return for Soto. He never did. The reality is, you’ve already lost if you find yourself trading a 23-year-old on a Hall-of-Fame track who has many years of team control left. History supports the idea that it’s nearly impossible to get equal value for a player of Soto’s caliber, and it seems unlikely that this deal will prove to be the exception, even if some of the young returners go on to have solid or better careers. Since sometimes it needs to be stated directly: this grade is a reflection of the prevailing situation, exchanging a face of the franchise in these conditions, more than the players. The most generous reading of this deal is that the Lerners, who are selling the franchise, took the PR hit for trading Soto so that the next owners could come in with a clean slate. How kind. The bottom line — the Lerners know the next owners wouldn’t want to extend Soto either — shouldn’t be lost on anyone. (Remember that whole story about how baseball is part of the entertainment industry? Here’s the other side of it.) You have to feel for general manager Mike Rizzo. Do you think he has his valedictory speech memorized now? Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and now Soto. All lost in a few years. Voit, 31, is the most complete player the Nationals received, even if he was Plan B after Eric Hosmer vetoed his own inclusion in the trade. Voit has two more seasons of team control remaining and will serve an immediate purpose as a handy replacement for Bell. He is an above-average hitter with good power and a willingness to walk. Voit’s strikeout rate has climbed over the past two years, suggesting the Nationals may want to move him this winter before his floor drops. Abrams and Gore are the real headliners almost by default, having been near the top of prospect lists for years and have since made their major-label debuts. However, each had an understandably sketchy introduction to the big league game. Abrams, 21, is an arm speedy who hit .232/.285/.320 (77 OPS+) with 23 more strikeouts than walks in his first 139 trips to the plate. It’s not far off being held as the reason Fernando Tatis Jr. he would move away from shortstop, which speaks to how the Padres and the industry viewed him. That assessment might be hard to reconcile with his play in the majors, but it’s worth remembering that the Padres rushed his arrival. He had appeared in just 42 games above A-ball when he made his major league debut, and those came before suffering a season-ending foot injury last summer. Some evaluators have expressed concern about Abrams’ shaky decisions and quality of contact in the past. Those concerns seem prescient so far: his strikeout rate was over 40 percent and he averaged an exit velocity in the mid-80s. Not ideal. The question is whether or not Abrams can settle in as he gains some much-needed experience against higher-level competition. We’re willing to hold out hope that the answer is yes, which in turn would make him a high-quality…
