A surprisingly high turnout and an overwhelming vote (59 percent to 41 percent, according to unofficial estimates) to maintain the state’s constitutional protections for abortion surprised many and provides lessons for Democrats and Republicans, analysts say. “We have pretty clear evidence here that abortion can motivate voters,” said Gerald Seib, a fellow at the Robert J. Dole Institute of Policy in Lawrence, Kan., and a former Washington editor at the Wall Street Journal. The polling firm’s coefficient adjusted its models 300 percent above historical averages, chairman Ryan Moons said, after voter registration in the state surged after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June. But he said they are still pulling back, not expecting nearly half of the Kansan electorate to turn out to vote, well above the 20 to 30 percent that is common in primary contests. “Rarely do we see movement in demographic participation rates so out of the norm,” Munce said in an email to CBC News. “In Kansas … Voters Broke All Models.” WATCHES | Pro-choice advocates hope the Kansas result can galvanize voters in November:
Kansas votes to protect abortion access, sparks hope for pro-choice groups
Voters in conservative Kansas resoundingly affirmed their support for abortion access, a major victory for pro-choice groups. This comes as US President Joe Biden signed an executive order to protect abortion travel.
Independent, moderate Republicans were the key
The ballot measure that sought to overturn a 2019 state Supreme Court ruling on constitutional protections for abortion also broke down trends in voting along party lines. In a state almost entirely controlled by Republicans, except for the governor, the vote against the measure was almost the exact opposite of the 56 percent to 42 percent Republican-Democrat split seen in the 2020 presidential election. Voters in Wyandotte County mark their ballots. The high turnout, unusual for a primary election, surprised many, as did the outcome of the abortion referendum, which suggested that even in a staunchly conservative state like Kansas, voters were unwilling to support a possible outright ban on abortion. . (Eric Cox/Reuters) “That would be interesting anywhere, but the fact that it was Kansas red really puts an exclamation point on it,” said Charles Sykes, a moderate Republican based in Wisconsin who founded the conservative news website Bulwark. Preliminary numbers show independents, who can’t vote in the Kansas primary, only dropped out of the ballot measure, and moderate Republicans must have played a role in the unusually high turnout. “That’s what Democrats have to hope for, that they can pull independents back on their side, and maybe that suggests that abortion can help them do that,” Seib said. Democratic state Rep. Stephanie Clayton reacts to campaign remarks on the abortion referendum at the Overland Park Convention Center. Republicans have a majority in the state and Senate in Kansas, but the governor is a Democrat. (The Topeka Capital-Journal/The Associated Press) Normally, those who care most about the abortion issue are the bases of their respective parties, but in this vote, voters who spoke in the center and a large majority of Democrats overcame their displeasure with the Biden administration and braved 30-degree heat to vote against the measure. “The fairly healthy turnout for both of these groups may be an indication of greater engagement to come,” said Patrick Miller, an associate professor of political science at the University of Kansas in Lawrence.
What it means for Democrats in the midterms
But he and others cautioned against mapping the results of a single-issue referendum onto the general election. “Abortion is now coming back as an issue that might be a swing voter? Kansas is making us think maybe, but we’ll have to see how it plays out this fall,” Miller said. Emily’s List’s Christina Reynolds, who works to elect more pro-women candidates to office, believes the turnout in Kansas is a sign that abortion can get people to the polls, and said that candidates with the organization is working with are already campaigning on the issue. Gabby Lara, with Students for Life, canvasses a Kansas City suburb, urging residents to vote “yes” on a proposed amendment that would overturn a court ruling that found the state constitution protects the right to an abortion . (Gabriella Borter/Reuters) “Democrats faced an enthusiasm gap … and we think this is changing that dynamic,” he said. “We know that the majority of voters are with us on this issue because fundamentally, what they stand for is the freedom to make your own decisions.” Other Democrats are more cautiously optimistic. “It’s an indicator, but not an indicator of what the interim terms will be,” South Carolina quarterback Antjuan Seawright said. “Quality of life issues continue to prevail in any given election.” Democratic activist Anne Melia prepares to knock on doors in Merriam, Kan. The two sides on the ballot spent millions of dollars on their respective campaigns and tried to reach voters directly. (John Hanna/The Associated Press) He said strong turnout in districts such as Johnson County in the east, the state’s largest and where the pro-choice vote was higher than support for Biden in the 2020 election, suggests that suburban voters, particularly white women, will be critical to the Democrats’ success in the fall. “In this midterm, probably more than any other midterm in recent history, you’re going to find an expanded number of people who would identify as independents,” Soorit predicted, noting that could include registered independents and those who simply vote independent of party. their. some issues. Miller, for his part, said that while a ballot measure might not be a typical partisan vote, the fact that post-Roe voter registration surges have tilted disproportionately independent and Democratic suggests that Republicans who have raised the abortion issue on the ballot they did not calculate correctly, assuming that the independents would have no reason to participate in the primaries. “People assume that abortion is a hyper-polarized issue, and if you look at people who are 100 percent either way, it is, but that’s not the typical American or the typical Kansan,” he said. “The typical person supports a basic right to access abortion services, but with certain limitations.”
Most Americans support some access to abortion
This supports what a overview by Harvard and three other universities held in all 50 states over four weeks in June and July. Just over 60 percent of Kansas voters who responded said they support access to abortion in cases of rape or where the woman’s life is in danger, compared with about 15 percent who oppose those cases. 29 percent support access for pregnancies after six weeks and 18 percent beyond the point at which the fetus is considered viable. And those numbers were similar for the US as a whole. For Sykes, the Republican commentator, the Kansas results are a sign that the full implications of the overturning of Roe v. Wade have not yet fully sunk in for his party. “You can see there’s a little bit of confusion on the part of the Republicans — how far do they want to go?” he said. “Even though we’ve been fighting for abortion for 50 years, we haven’t really had a conversation with real-world consequences like we do now. So this is really just beginning.” Kelly Brende and Erin Woods of the Vote No campaign talk with Justine Kigenyi in Lenexa, Kan., on Aug. 1. (Kyle Rivas/Getty Images) Democratic strategist Rachel Gorlin agrees that since the Supreme Court decision, Republicans have been struggling to answer the question, “Now what?” While both parties have always framed the abortion debate in terms of extremes, he said, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for Republicans to label Democrats as extremists when some of the loudest voices on their side are calling for an outright abortion ban. “For the people who really support a total ban, I think you’ll find that most of those people are not in competitive districts,” Gorlin said. He said anti-abortion Republicans won’t be able to avoid talking about the issue altogether in the midterms, but should reassure voters that they will protect abortion in extreme cases and “leave it at that.” For Democrats, the smart strategy, he said, is also to highlight those difficult cases, such as the 10-year-old rape victim denied care in Ohio, who has no rape or incest exemptions and was sent out of state for an abortion. “You don’t have to go that deep into the Republican electorate that opposes abortion rights. To win, you just have to reach out to those Republicans who have doubts about the government telling families how to deal with a crisis pregnancy.” A yard sign in Wichita. Those campaigning for the amendment appealed to the notions of protecting the lives of women and infants in their messages. (Gabriella Borter/Reuters)
Telling the truth pays, says the pro-choice advocate
This was largely the strategy adopted by pro-choice advocates in Kansas. television commercials focused on framing the amendment as a “government mandate” that would interfere with private medical decisions and cast the vote as a choice between government control and religious freedom. Pro-choice advocates pointed to the fact that Kansas already regulates abortions, prohibits taxpayer funding for it and requires parental consent. They also argued that removing constitutional protections would be an extreme step that could cut off access…
