Analysts say the race is close with none of the front-runners significantly ahead of the other. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the election will go to a second round for the first time in Kenya’s history. Tuesday’s presidential election, according to opinion polls, is seen as a two-horse race between Deputy President William Ruto, 55, and veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, 77. Odinga is a businessman and politician who served as Kenya’s prime minister for five years following a disputed December 2007 presidential election that led to widespread protests and violence that left more than 1,000 dead. Odinga is part of Kenya’s political dynasty. Jaramogi’s father Oginga Odinga was the first vice president of independent Kenya. He earned a master’s degree in mechanical engineering in East Germany in 1970 and was once a lecturer at the University of Nairobi after studying abroad. He is running for the fifth and final time, he says, after failing in his four previous attempts. Odinga has received the support of President Kenyatta’s former rival, who overlooked Ruto’s deputy for the top job. Known as “Baba” to Kenyans, he is committed to creating social protection and a universal health care program called Babacare for poor households. Free education up to the college level is also part of his plans. This could be Odinga’s year, says political reporter and analyst Moses Odhiambo. “There is a sense that whichever way the government seems to be leaning is winning. If you borrow from opinion polls, then Raila has an advantage,” Odiabo told CNN. Odinga’s main rival, Ruto, describes himself as the “Hustler-in-Chief”, citing his humble beginnings as a chicken seller who fought his way to one of Kenya’s highest political offices. Ruto, a former teacher who holds a PhD in Plant Ecology from the University of Nairobi, has adopted a populist “man of the people” approach designed to capture Kenya’s biggest voting bloc — the youth. And he seems to be succeeding, veteran political analyst Herman Majora told CNN: “Ruto has excited young people … almost with a sense of euphoria. That may help them turn out and vote.” Ruto has pledged to prioritize Kenya’s economy and “uplift ordinary citizens” if elected president. “There is a world of difference between me and my competitor. I have a plan, he doesn’t,” Ruto says of Odinga. Ruto was also tried alongside Kenyatta in 2013 at the International Criminal Court in the Netherlands for alleged crimes against humanity following the 2007 election violence. However, the charges were later dropped. Although the election will bring about a change of administration, linking Ruto and Odinga to the current government does not necessarily provide a new political phenomenon, argues analyst Odiabo. “Among champions, people like to strike a balance between what’s perceived as continuity and freshness within a continuity,” Odhiambo said. “Ruto is the deputy president and part of the current government. There is a perception that Odinga could be an extension of the current president because of the support the president has given him.”
What are the issues?
Among the key pressing issues for the electorate are myriad economic problems ranging from rising debt to high food and fuel prices and mass youth unemployment. Parts of the country are also suffering from a debilitating drought that threatens to exacerbate growing insecurity issues. Analyst Manyora says many Kenyans, especially young people, are disillusioned with the government and may boycott the election. “There are things that can affect participation. One is disillusionment in the country with the high cost of living, powerlessness and hopelessness among the youth, unemployment, poverty levels and people not seeing anything that the politicians for them,” the analyst said. He added that Kenya’s problems should usually prompt his countrymen to vote for the right candidates regardless of race, but they are not “angry enough”. “You would expect that because of these problems Kenyans would turn out in large numbers to the polls to express their anger at the high cost of living by voting those in charge… I don’t think Kenyans are at a point where they are angry enough to translate anger into political action,” Manyora told CNN.
The role of ethnicity
The Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin and Luo are four of the East African country’s most populous ethnic groups. Outgoing leader Kenyatta is among three of four Kenyan presidents to have emerged from the dominant Kikuyu ethnic group since the country’s independence in 1963. “The problem in this country is that racial considerations supersede everything else… Most of the votes cast will be based on race; very few votes will come from critical voters,” analyst Manyora said. Ruto is from the Kalenjin tribe and Odinga from the Luo ethnic group. Both men criss-crossed the country before wrapping up their campaigns over the weekend and sought support from those outside their strongholds. Both candidates also selected their candidates from the Kikuyu — one of Kenya’s largest electoral blocs — also known as the Mount Kenya region. Ruto is running alongside first-time MP Rigathy Gatsagwa, while Odinga is on the ballot with former justice minister and one-time presidential candidate Martha Karua. Karua will become Kenya’s first female vice president if elected. Analyst Odhiambo says the choice of Odinga as a running mate has excited women in Kenya. “There is a growing wave of support around female leadership, which has been accelerated by Odinga’s selection of Martha as his running mate,” he said. Women make up 49% of Kenya’s registered voters, according to the country’s electoral commission. Only the Kikuyu and Kalenjin tribes have produced the country’s presidents, and this is the first election where none of the leading candidates are Kikuyu. No candidate from the Luo tribe has won a presidential election.
