The race pits presidential front-runners Raila Odinga, former Prime Minister and Deputy President William Ruto against each other in a tight race. Polls put Odinga in first place. Odinga has run for the presidency four other times in races that were just as close. This time, however, he will enter with the support of an unlikely ally: his long-time political rival, President Uhuru Kenyatta. The two reunited after a public handshake in 2018, marking the end of their long-standing political enmity. The handshake between the two leaders, who hail from Kenyan hereditary families, stunned the nation and the couple’s supporters. Odinga and Kenyatta hail from the Luo and Kikuyu ethnic communities, which have long been on opposing political sides. In Kenya’s national political landscape, their alliance is seen as the card that could make Odinga fifth time lucky, with Kenyatta’s support expected to include a share of the Kikuyu vote. But observers are unsure whether the alliance can bridge a decades-old national divide. “A large number of Kikuyu rebelled against the alliance,” says Gabriel Muthuma, a political analyst. “The only way we’re going to know if it worked or not is by what it produces on the ballot.” Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, left, applauds as he jingles to a popular election campaign jingle on a step next to his former political nemesis, Raila Odinga, right. Photo: Tony Karumba/AFP/Getty Images The handshake left Ruto – Kenyatta’s former ally and hopeful successor – on the sidelines. The president and his deputy eventually clashed for reasons that are not clear, ending a once favored bromance enjoyed by the public when the pair came to power in 2013, giving them the moniker “UhuRuto”. But by the time of their ouster, Ruto had already won some favor in the Kikuyu-dominated Mount Kenya region. He expanded this influence by choosing a candidate from this region. Analysts say his choice, Rigathi Gachagua, a businessman and outgoing MP, has significant influence in the region. However, their campaign has been dealt a blow after he was recently ordered by the country’s highest court to forfeit 202 million shillings (£1.3 million) of his wealth because he was linked to corruption. Odinga, on the other hand, nominated Martha Karua, a former justice minister and longtime politician, as his running mate. She is the first woman nominated as a vice-presidential candidate on a major political ticket, and if elected will be Kenya’s first vice-president. Karua is also from the Mount Kenya region, but is said to be less influential there. Analysts say the selection of Karua as a candidate, however, has given his campaign a boost among other voter demographics, including women, civil society and urban, educated Kenyans. Supporters listen during a rally by Kenya’s vice president and presidential candidate William Ruto. Photo: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images Beyond redrawing national alliances, a struggling economy has drawn unprecedented public attention to the economic agendas of presidential candidates. “The political class has had to step up after recognizing that this time it won’t just be about national balkanization,” says Kenyan economist Ken Gichinga. Food prices have soared across the country, fueled by global food supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Kenyans are also shouldering the brunt of the country’s growing public debt of 8.6 trillion shillings (£59 billion) through highly taxed goods. Many households are struggling and a Gallup poll found that seven out of 10 Kenyans reported experiencing food insecurity in 2021. “The economy is a very big pillar in this election and it can be a game changer,” says Muthuma. Annan Okenye, who is running for a country assembly seat in Pipeline, Embakasi, one of Nairobi’s most densely populated neighborhoods, says the country’s economic situation has made life unbearable. The greengrocer and street vendor, who ran a limited campaign on donations and meager savings, spent six years trying to put himself through university on a daily income of around 400 shillings (£3) a day. Just as he had put an end to his dreams of becoming the first graduate in his extended family in 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic struck, forcing him to drop out of school and look for work. With formal employment elusive, he found himself back where he had started: eking out a living at his market stall. “Kenyans have been devastated by economic conditions that make many of them believe that their best lives are behind them,” says Gichinga. A street hawker in his early days, Ruto clawed his way into the ranks of the political elite and its considerable wealth. He positioned himself during his campaigns as a “hustler” who could understand the struggles of the ordinary Kenyan. He took on “dynasty” candidate Raila Odinga, but as references to “dynasties” and “hustlers” took off, some lawmakers branded it inflammatory, saying it stoked class tensions and fueled dangerous divisions in a country with extremely high inequality. William Ruto speaks to supporters during a rally in Machakos, Kenya, ahead of the general election. Photo: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images Ruto’s bottom-up campaign messaging has gained ground with small business owners such as market stall holders and motorcycle taxi drivers, Okenye says. The model promises to empower those at the bottom of the economic pyramid, including by providing a 50bn shillings (£346m) ‘Hustler Fund’ to support small businesses. “The people of the market feel that it is an integral part of them. I listen to what people say, as a politician, and it scores high from the bottom up,” says Okenye, who says he does not agree with any candidate. Odinga, on the other hand, has proposed a health care plan for all called BabaCare. It also pledged that every vulnerable household would receive 6,000 shillings (£40) every month as a form of social protection. Economists say cash transfers can be effective, but Odinga has been unclear on how the billions of shillings needed to implement them will be raised. “Will it be through taxes, and if so, are Kenyans ready for higher taxes? Will it be done through borrowing? If so, aren’t Kenyans already tired of debt?” Gittinga asks. Heading into the election, voters’ expectations for change are low. A resident of Nairobi’s Kayole Junction neighborhood, Noah Dulo, says: “Our debt is now almost at nine trillion. So the concern is that whichever leader we elect, there just aren’t enough resources to run the country.”
