The contest is between current Deputy President William Ruto, 55, and Raila Odinga, a 77-year-old veteran of such campaigns who is now on his fifth attempt at the top job. Relations with China, which has invested heavily in the country in recent decades, causing concern among Kenyans, has become a key battleground for the campaign. The usual rule of incumbent advantage has been upended following Ruto’s spat with current president Uhuru Kenyatta, who has in turn thrown his weight behind Odinga. As a result, the competition is now open, according to the FT’s Africa editor David Pilling. Further FT comments on the Kenyan poll, which will also include elections for parliament and 47 local assemblies, will be published as the results come in. Attention will also turn this week (once again) to an earlier major poll: the 2020 US presidential election. Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor turned personal lawyer to former President Donald Trump, has been ordered by a New York judge to testify Tuesday before a grand jury investigating efforts by Trump supporters to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia. It’s a sign of the threat posed by the Georgia grand jury’s investigation of Trump and those around him, greater than some believe the Jan. 6 congressional committee’s investigation into the 2021 Capitol attack. In other news, the UK’s Summer of Discontent over post-lockdown pay awards is taking place this week with up to 120 Red Funnel staff on the Isle of Wight ship kicking things off with a strike on Tuesday. More than 1,000 people at Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon ​​Borough Council, one of Northern Ireland’s largest local authorities, will go on strike on Wednesday, affecting waste collection, planning and leisure services. Glasgow Metro workers plan to go on strike © Strathclyde Partnership for Transport via FT On Friday it will be the turn of Glasgow Metro workers, a particular inconvenience for Rangers fans on a matchday, followed by (another) national rail strike by Aslef drivers on nine rail companies on Saturday. On the bright side, and goodness knows we need it, Tuesday kicks off UK school exam results season with Scottish students hoping for news that they have the necessary Highers and Advanced Highers to secure places at universities and colleges . This was the first year of students taking the exam after the pandemic, so expect this to be discussed as a factor in the grades students receive. It will also be an opportunity for a school report on the Scottish National Party’s performance in education north of the border.

Financial data

The main economic news this week will be inflation data from the US and China, plus the UK’s first stab at second quarter gross domestic product. We could also get some indication of future fuel price movement with the monthly oil market reports from the Energy Information Administration and OPEC. The growing possibility of a recession and, by extension, concerns about oil demand will have an impact on these updates, despite the fact that supply remains very tight.

Companies

Like the holiday tan, the rush of corporate earnings announcements fades for another season. The dominant theme will be insurance companies, which provide further evidence of the damage inflation is doing to the industry, particularly motor insurers, as the price of parts and other claims rises sharply. After July profit warnings for Direct Line and Sabre, all eyes will be on Admiral’s half-year results on Wednesday to see if its profitability and guidance can withstand the inflationary threat. The other notable players are Aviva and Zurich. “These will provide more evidence of how the larger, diversified groups are faring in a period of rising interest rates and a worsening economic outlook,” says my colleague FT insurance correspondent Ian Smith. Read the full calendar for the week here