So far, the Blue Jays have been quiet, but with clear needs, desirable prospects and a history of busy deadlines, there’s reason to believe moves are coming. In the meantime, here are some observations on where the Blue Jays stand, what fits best on their roster and what’s next. The case for relievers It’s easy for front office executives not to trade good prospects for relievers. They’re fickle and pitch relatively few innings—yet they’re often still expensive. The risk is great, the cost is great, hesitation follows. If you evaluate reliever trades by WAR, the team that sends the reliever out of town usually wins. But consider this point, made recently by a longtime baseball insider: when your season is on the line, who’s holding the ball? The 8th inning of Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, for example? Or the ninth inning of Game 6 of the ALCS? Most of the time it is a relief. So, as useful as WAR is in capturing the relative value of players over 162 games, it doesn’t capture the importance of relievers in a deep playoff run. And yes, reliever performance is erratic. There’s an absolute risk of overpaying for a massive 20-inch specimen. But the biggest risk? Giving the ball to a mediocre pitcher with the season on the line. Right now, Jordan Romano and Jimmy Garcia are pitching like relievers who deserve the ball in the highest, high-leverage situations. Beyond those two, who on this Blue Jays staff really fits that description? David Phelps, Adam Cimber and Tim Mayza have all been effective, but their strikeout rates are below average for relievers, so there’s still a need here. By all accounts, the Blue Jays are motivated to bolster their pitching staff, checking in on relievers and starters in hopes of finding reinforcements. Of course, there is a lot of competition on this front. “Sounds like every team,” noted another person familiar with the trade market. The thing is, not all teams have the same opportunity in front of them that the Blue Jays have. Already, they are the third best team in the American League, trailing only the Yankees and Astros. Even without reinforcements, they could probably make the playoffs. However, there is a case to be made for trading good prospects to make sure John Schneider has enough options late in the game. Simply put: it’s hard to see the Blue Jays going four playoff series without more relief. With that, they could be scary. Bat-only formulas need not apply In the recent past, the Blue Jays have shown interest in DH types, including Nelson Cruz, but such players no longer fit Toronto’s roster as well. At this point in the season, George Springer has made about a quarter of his DH appearances (21 of 88), but right elbow soreness has been a concern enough that he missed three of the Blue Jays’ nine second-half games . He may need more DH time and that’s before we get to Alejandro Kirk, the Blue Jays best player so far in 2022. Between those two and the occasional partial leave for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., they seem to be talking about most of the Blue Jays’ DH bats. With that in mind, any position player the Blue Jays consider a possibility must be able to contribute defensively as well. Last call… Under the previous rules, when players could make it through August as long as they cleared waivers, this Blue Jays front office might as well have kept trading for another few weeks. Even if not, the ability to trade created flexibility for GMs in case of unexpected injuries. That was especially true for teams willing to take on payroll, and while the Blue Jays aren’t reckless spenders, they clearly fall into that category. They have received money in each of the last two deadlines and have publicly stated that they can do so again. Along these lines: while the details are still unclear and may not be until his contract expires, it is believed that the Blue Jays will at least receive some financial relief from Hyun-Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80 million deal (Tommy John surgery limited Ryu to six starts in 2022 and will cost him most or all of the 2023 season, after which he becomes a free agent.) Now, however, there is no possibility of negotiating a second wave of aid in August. The Blue Jays can’t afford to let Springer’s situation play out for another few weeks. they must decide now whether to supplement. The same goes for the pitching staff. As Alec Manoa’s scare over the weekend showed, the Blue Jays are one back away from trouble. It starts with internal assessment — knowing your own players. But GMs may want to look for help proactively, as this is their last chance to add meaningfully before the playoffs.
