With the Mariners in a wild-card spot and trying to end an epic playoff drought dating back to the stony years (at least in sports years) of 2001, you knew general manager Jerry Dipoto was going to make a move — and maybe a big one. It didn’t disappoint. The Mariners were believed to be one of the top contenders to sign Juan Soto, but Dipoto instead acquired Castillo, who was considered the top starting pitcher available (barring a shocking Shohei Ohtani trade) and offered teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Cardinals also chasing Castillo. Let’s go to the grades. The Mariners went 17-5 in their last 22 games to get into a playoff spot, but all five of those losses have come against the Astros since the All-Star break, with the Mariners hitting just 11 runs in those losses . That’s why he was in Soto. They need to improve an offense that is 11th in the American League in runs per game. But they faced another issue: rookie George Kirby is nearing the innings cap, with 94 innings on the season, after having just 67.2 in 2021 in his first full season as a pro. Without a viable No. 5 starter, they needed another starter to eventually replace Kirby in the rotation. Castillo obviously fits that hole. The two-time All-Star is just 4-4, but has a 2.86 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 85 innings (he missed April after coming out of spring training with a sore shoulder). He’s been especially hot in recent years, posting a 1.59 ERA in his last five starts, including 7 innings in his last four outings. Two of those games came against the Braves and Yankees, two of the best offenses in the majors, so he hasn’t just beaten the Cubs and Pirates. With a fastball that averages 96 to 97 mph, Castillo’s velocity has never been an issue, nor has his changeup, which has been one of the best in the majors for several years. But he’s developed a bit more consistency this season, dropping his walk rate from 3.6 per nine innings to 3.0, and his slider has turned into a wipeout pitch, holding batters to a .189 average and just one home run. Scouts have long viewed Castillo as a potential ace, and he was closer than ever to that level in 2022 — which is why every prospect in need of a starter wanted this guy. 2 Related Castillo has gone deep into games, pitching 187.2 innings in 2021 and 190.2 innings in 2019. Acquiring Castillo will allow Scott Servais to retire the innings of second-year right-hander Logan Gilbert, who has thrown 123 innings. just three behind Aleknoah for most in the AL. Kirby can be moved to the bullpen or make some starts as needed. Seattle’s bullpen has been on fire over the past two months — entering Friday’s games, it had a 2.59 ERA since May 25, the best in the majors — so the Mariners now have plenty of depth in both the rotation and the bullpen to spend the last two months. The added bonus is that Castillo is also under team control through 2023, giving the Mariners six viable starting pitcher options for next season in Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Of course, there’s still that offense that needs upgrading. Trading Marte, their top prospect, almost certainly takes them out of the sweepstakes for Soto, who they probably weren’t going to win anyway. Sure, they could offer a package with Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis and another prospect, but that would essentially empty the farm system, and given Kelenic’s struggles at the major league level, his trade value not worthy of Soto now anyway. The big upgrade the M’s are looking for will likely have to come from Mitch Haniger, who has been out since mid-April (except for one game). He is finally rehabbing in the minors and should be back soon. Remember, he hit 39 home runs last season. But Haniger alone might not be enough, especially since the wild-card race remains a race with the Blue Jays, Rays, AL Central teams and perhaps the Orioles and Red Sox. The Mariners could still be looking for a second-tier bat, someone like Joc Pederson, Ian Happ (although he has other team control, so the Cubs might not trade him), Brandon Drury, or David Peralta. Or maybe Jesse Winker will finally start running on a consistent basis like he did in 2021. Look, you can make the argument that no team needs a playoff trip more than the Mariners… but they gave up two extremely promising prospects to get Castillo, and I think there’s a very good chance this trade looks lopsided in the Reds’ favor In a few years. Yes, the trade helps the Mariners for this season and next, but given the way the Astros have crushed them in the last five games, Seattle hardly looks like a World Series contender in 2022 (but you have to get in for have a chance!) .
Grade: C
The Reds and Mariners brought the Winker/Eugenio Suarez deal back to spring training (Brandon Williamson was the starting shortstop for the Reds), so that would explain that deal. The Reds know Seattle’s system and the two front offices have talked to each other in the past, often the key to any successful trade. And there’s a reason the Reds agreed to this deal: They might have hit home. Marte was Kiley McDaniel’s No. 12 prospect entering the season, and he’s played at a level to stay in that ranking — or maybe even move up. He’s hitting .270/.360/.460 for Everett in the top-A Northwest League at age 20, making him one of the youngest players in the league. His .820 OPS is well above his league average of .693, and he’s been especially hot in recent years, hitting .370 with seven home runs in July (with 10 walks and just 12 strikeouts). Gotta love this mid-season tweak/upgrade. Marte’s potential has been his calling card, with Kiley giving him a 60 grade in spring training. It may not stick to the counter, but the bat and glove will easily profile third base. Look, you never know with any prospect, and Marte wasn’t exactly tearing it up before his hot streak in July, but unless his hitting streak suddenly evaporates, Marte at least looks like a solid major leaguer and a star with potential . For a year-plus Castillo, this is about as good as you can expect. Which stars will move? Which candidates will make the biggest splash? Here’s our latest update as the deadline approaches. Watch MLB Trade Deadline » Points for each offer » Except the Reds also got Arroyo, Seattle’s second-round pick last year, from Puerto Rico. He was a very young draft pick and didn’t turn 19 until August, but he was extremely impressive in the low-A California League, hitting .316/.385/.514 with 13 home runs. Yes, you have to adjust the California League stats — the league OPS is .755 — but Arroyo is one of two 18-year-olds in the league with at least 93 at-bats, and the other is hitting .188. Oh, he’s also 21-for-24 stealing bases with a chance at shortstop. Looks like a top-100 prospect for 2023. Reds fans should be very excited about this deal. Except that’s not all. Levi Stoudt was likely Seattle’s consensus No. 5 or No. 6 prospect, though he struggled at Double-A Arkansas with a 5.28 ERA and 13 home runs in 87 innings. But he has big stuff, with a fastball in the low 90s and a changeup that has been considered his best secondary option. The strike-to-walk ratio was pretty good at 82 to 22, so with more finesse, there’s still potential to start here. Andrew Moore (not the former Mariners prospect of the same name now in the minors with the Blue Jays) is Bugs Bunny numbers in relief in Modesto (58 K’s, no home runs in 32.1 innings). A 14th round pick last year out of Chipola Junior College in Florida, the numbers are interesting to say the least. Look, any rebuild is painful, and while you can blame the Reds for starting to move away from their best players in spring training, you can’t blame the Reds for this trade.
