Three people familiar with the situation said Pelosi will meet with Tsai in Taipei as part of a broader visit to Asia that began in Singapore on Sunday. Pelosi did not include Taiwan on her official itinerary – which includes Japan, South Korea and Malaysia – due to security concerns, but the Financial Times first reported that she would be the first speaker to visit Taiwan here and 25 years. China has issued strong warnings to the Biden administration, including suggestions that the People’s Liberation Army could take action if the 82-year-old Democrat went ahead with her planned visit. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on Monday called on China to act responsibly and “not engage in any escalation” if Pelosi visits Taiwan. President Joe Biden sent senior officials, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, to outline the risks to Pelosi, but people familiar with the situation said she decided to go ahead with the landmark trip. Many Republicans, and a few Democrats, urged Pelosi to go ahead, arguing that any decision to postpone or cancel would capitulate to China. But the White House worries it could spark a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, where tensions have soared over the past year. On Monday, China stepped up its threats. After the People’s Liberation Army held live-fire drills in Pingtan, an island in the Taiwan Strait, and other drills in the South China Sea last week, China’s Maritime Security Administration said more drills would be held from Tuesday to Saturday. “The Chinese People’s Liberation Army will not be left behind,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Monday. At the White House on Monday, John Kirby, the National Security Council’s communications chief, said there was “no reason” for Beijing to turn a potential visit into “a pretext for increasing aggressive military activity.” “China appears to be positioning itself to possibly take further steps in the coming days,” Kirby said. “These possible steps . . . it could include military provocations, such as firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait.” Kirby repeatedly declined to confirm that Pelosi would visit Taiwan during a press briefing, but said, “We will be watching it very, very closely. We will make sure he has a safe and secure visit.” A longtime critic of China, particularly on human rights issues, Pelosi would be the most senior lawmaker to visit Taiwan since President Newt Gingrich went in 1997. Beijing opposes all visits by US lawmakers to Taiwan, over which it claims sovereignty. But it is particularly sensitive to Pelosi’s visit because she is second in line to the presidency after the vice president and belongs to the same party as Biden. Her visit will also come just months before the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, at which President Xi Jinping is expected to receive an unprecedented third term as leader. Beijing has accused the US of softening its “one China” policy, under which Washington recognizes Beijing as China’s sole government, while acknowledging, but not endorsing, its position that Taiwan is part of China. The US military is preparing to protect Pelosi, who is flying in a US Air Force jet. Few experts believe China would try to shoot down its plane, but Chinese fighter jets could attempt to intercept its plane. This could cause a dangerous situation because the US military would have to step in to protect Pelosi and her delegation. “If a decision is made that President Pelosi or anyone else is going to travel and request military support, we will do whatever is necessary to ensure that their visit is safe,” said Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs. last week in response to a question from the FT. A senior Taiwanese official said Taipei had not seen a noticeable increase in PLA activity in the past week, but China’s military had stepped up its movements around Taiwan in recent weeks. “They have been increasing the pressure very recently,” said a second senior Taiwanese official. “They are sending more aircraft and ships and they are closing in.” According to Taiwan government data, on July 24 the PLA conducted joint air and sea maneuvers on three sides around Taiwan, including an attack drone and a destroyer off its east coast, an anti-submarine warfare aircraft and two fighter jets and a reconnaissance plane flying a raid on the southwestern edge of the “air defense reconnaissance zone.” The day after those moves – some of which have not been made public – the Japanese military said another type of Chinese attack drone had flown between Yonaguni, a Japanese island off the east coast of Taiwan. Figures released by Japan’s military and Taiwan’s defense ministry also show that the PLA has stepped up activity around Japan’s southernmost islands and in Taiwan’s ADIZ since the second half of June. Follow Demetri Sevastopulo and Kathrin Hille on Twitter
