When asked who they would “vote for today” with Hochul and Zeldin running for their respective parties, 53% of respondents said they would vote for the governor while 39% said they would vote for Zeldin. Another 7% said they “don’t know” or had no opinion, and 2% said they wouldn’t vote for governor at all. “Fourteen weeks is a long time in politics, and we know that most voters don’t really start focusing on the election until after Labor Day. However, Hochul has an early – but certainly not insurmountable – lead,” said pollster Steven Greenberg. “Hochul dominates New York City, leading by nearly 50 points, while Zeldin has a slim 3-point lead in both the upstate and downstate suburbs,” Greenberg said. Political experts say the path to victory for Zeldin requires him to win at least 30 percent of the vote in Democratic-dominated New York, while making big gains in the surrounding suburbs and upstate.
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The Siena poll showed Long Island Republican Zeldin leading Hochul with suburbanites 46 percent to 43 percent and a 48 percent to 45 percent advantage among state voters over the Buffalo governor. Hochul has the support of 70% of voters in the hard-left Big Apple compared to 21% for Zeldin. The incumbent governor ranks highest in every demographic category based on race, age and income in the survey of 806 likely voters conducted July 24-28. Black voters favor Hotchul by a margin of 78 percent to 8 percent, but the poll shows her leading by just six points and eight points among white and Latino voters. The candidates are close among voters 35 to 54, with Hochul leading 46 percent to 43 percent. It increases by 15 points among older voters and 35 points among voters under 34. Women favor Hotchul by 26 points, while Hotchul and Zeldin each have 46% support among men. A total of 31% of respondents have a positive view of Zeldin with 28% saying he has a negative view, while Hotchul received favorable marks from 46% of voters along with 41% who disapproved. While 36% of New Yorkers think the Empire State is headed in the right direction, just 19% say the same about the country — a record high that could help Republicans like Zeldin campaign on issues like historically high inflation. Gov. Kathy Hochul dominates New York City, leading by nearly 50 points.Matthew McDermott President Joe Biden is getting mixed reviews from the Democratic Party.Getty Images/Anna Moneymaker New Yorkers are divided over Democratic President Joe Biden, who is rated favorably and unfavorably by 46% of respondents in the Siena poll. The poll results are similar to a separate survey released Tuesday morning by Emerson College Polling that showed Hochul with a 16-point lead over Zeldin, with similar margins separating the candidates in New York and other parts of the state. . While Zeldin appears to be falling short of his electoral goals, he appears in a better position at this point in the race compared to other recent GOP candidates. A 2018 Siena poll showed Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, a Republican, trailing incumbent Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 22 points, weeks after they won their respective party primaries held in September of that year . New York State Congressman and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin has a 3-point lead in both upstate and downstate suburbs.J. Messerschmidt/NY Post “While Democrats have carried the last four gubernatorial elections, Zeldin’s current 14-point deficit matches the closest Republicans have come in those races, when Andrew Cuomo defeated Rob Astorino 54-40 in 2014. In August 2014, Cuomo led Astorino by 32 points, 58-26 percent,” Greenberg said in the press release. But Zeldin has ground to cover if he wants to repeat the success of George Pataki, the last Republican to serve as governor. Republican challenger George Pataki led Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo by 3 points statewide – with an 11-point advantage in New York – in an October 1994 poll conducted by The New York Times/WCBS-TV News before the upset victory of Pataki on the three – term in November. Other GOP candidates on the national ticket in November 2022 appear to face even greater odds than Zeldin to become the first Republican to win statewide election since Pataki won a third term in office in 2002. US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is leading in his race. Rod Lamkey/CNP/MediaPunch U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer and state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli have 21-point leads in their respective races over Republican candidate Joe Pinion, a former Newsmax anchor, and banker Paul Rodriguez, according to the Siena Poll. State Attorney General Letitia James is 14 points ahead of Commercial Judge Michael Henry in her own bid for re-election. Hochul has raised more than $34 million in her bid to become the first woman to be elected governor after taking over last August as a former governor. Andrew Cuomo, who resigned amid multiple scandals. Her campaign finance disclosures filed in mid-July show she has $11.7 million to spend on the campaign ahead compared to $1.6 million for Zeldin. Hochul has advocated for stricter gun control following a landmark Supreme Court ruling last month. AP/Philip Kamrass In recent months, he has campaigned hard on abortion rights and gun control following controversial U.S. Supreme Court rulings that could hurt Republicans’ chances in the Empire State this November. “Although a small majority of Republicans support the Dobbs decision, it is opposed by 89% of Democrats, 60% of independents and at least 62% of voters from every region, age group, gender and race,” Greenberg said. reference to the recent SCOTUS decision on abortion. “Support for the new law that expands the eligibility requirements to obtain a permit to carry a concealed weapon — background checks with character references and firearms safety training classes — is overwhelming across demographics,” he added of the new state laws passed after another decision. repealing New York’s longstanding rules on carrying concealed weapons.
