US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken revealed this week that Washington had offered Russia a deal to repatriate American basketball star Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan, a Canadian-born corporate security executive. Reports say arms dealer Viktor Bout could be traded in return. Moscow made limited comments until Friday, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was open to talks with Blinken. The two diplomats later spoke by phone, with Blinken telling reporters he urged his Russian counterpart to go ahead with the proposal. If Washington’s approach prevails, the Biden administration could take credit for reuniting families and achieving results amid heightened tensions with Russia. Media reports emerged later on Friday that Russia raised the prospect of adding a second person held in Germany. But Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the US National Security Council, told Reuters that “detaining two Americans wrongfully held hostage for the release of a Russian assassin in the custody of a third country is not a serious counteroffer.” WATCHES | US reveals prisoner swap offer to Russia:
White House offers Russia deal to release basketball star Brittney Griner
The Biden administration says it has made a “substantial offer” to bring two American prisoners home from Russia, including basketball star Brittney Griner. Experts say there are always concerns that such exchanges can incentivize authoritarian governments to use these mechanisms to their advantage now and in the future. Weighing the pros and cons of the U.S. proposal, Seva Gunitsky, an associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said he sees cause for concern if other people end up being unfairly detained because of the value they can offer in a future exchange, based on what is happening here. And that left him “very ambivalent” about the proposal, in terms of the precedent it could set, he said. But Elliott Borenstein, a professor of Russian and Slavic studies at New York University (NYU), said such arrangements may indeed reward some bad behavior, but that is a reality that must be accepted when hard choices have to be made. “At some point, the other side has to decide what’s important to them,” Borenstein said.
Unusual publicity
Moscow did not appear to welcome the US decision to speak openly about the proposal — although Blinken’s remarks earlier in the week indicated to some that the proposal was under consideration. Michael McFaul, the former US ambassador to Russia, told the PBS NewsHour that Blinken’s comments were “a very positive sign” about the possibility of the deal moving forward. “It sounds like they’ve made a deal,” said McFaul, who is requesting that a third American — Mark Fogel — be included in the exchange. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken revealed this week that Washington had presented Moscow with a proposal for a possible prisoner exchange. The public disclosure of these conversations at such an early stage is unusual, experts say. (Andrew Harnik/The Associated Press) Stephen Sestanovich, the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Diplomacy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, said the US was likely talking to people at home as well as in Russia when sharing the information about the prisoner exchange pitch. “Publicity is certainly unusual in a case like this,” Sestanovich told CBC News via email. “Biden and his advisers may want to make it clear to their own domestic audience that they are working on the matter.” He said the US is likely to expect it to also send a message to Moscow that Bhutto can be returned, but not to “drag it out indefinitely”.
Imbalance in the scale
Maria Popova, an associate professor of political science at McGill University, sees an imbalance in the scales of the proposal — pitting Booth, a convicted arms dealer, against Griner, a star athlete charged with a minor offense. Whelan, the other American citizen involved in the proposed swap, was convicted in Russia on espionage charges two years ago — but he and his family have maintained his innocence. Maria Popova, an associate professor of political science at McGill University, sees an imbalance in the scales of the current US proposal — pitting Bout, a convicted arms dealer, against Brittney Griner (shown above), a star athlete accused of petty offence. (Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images) For Popova, it appears that “the impetus for the exchange is Brittney Griner,” and she said that has troubling implications. If such cases become more frequent, “maybe [become] an incentive to detain other Western citizens on various charges in order to exchange them,” he said. NYU’s Borenstein said he believes deals like the one involving Moscow tend to be asymmetric because there is much more pressure in Western democracies for governments to act than in Russia. “In a Western country, when it’s one of your own people being held captive in a regime that you think is more authoritarian and restrictive, then there can be this grassroots movement, a lot of debate, a lot of political pressure,” he said. . “And there’s not that much room for that in Russia right now.” Paul Whelan, seen in Moscow in this June 2020 photo, is among two US citizens Washington is trying to free in a prisoner swap. (Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images) Danielle Gilbert, Rosenwald Fellow in US Foreign Policy and International Security at the John Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College, said it is not just Russia that could learn from the proposed US exchange “It teaches nations like Russia, like China, Iran, Venezuela, that all they have to do is arrest a foreigner on these horrendous, trumped-up charges and eventually, they’ll be able to negotiate their way out,” he said. on the CBC. News in a recent interview.
The two sides are still discussing
Another takeaway from all the news about the proposal, experts note, is that Moscow and Washington are still talking, at some level, despite their many points of disagreement. A Russian flag appears outside the Russian embassy in Washington, DC, in a photo taken earlier this year. (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images) McGill’s Popova said she suspects these tensions are making prisoner swap negotiations difficult. “There is a lot of suspicion between the two sides,” he said. But Borenstein thinks it’s good that some level of communication is happening. “Two huge world powers should be able to keep the lines of communication open,” he said. “I guess it’s a sign that things could be worse.”
