The thought that this could be a long-term conflict represents a remarkable change from the early days of the war, when Russia was expected to quickly occupy the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and underscore Moscow’s failures on the battlefield. The longer the war continues, the more brutal the humanitarian tax on the people of Ukraine. And while officials have stressed that international determination to provide a high level of support to Ukraine is likely to continue, they acknowledged that there may be real practical weapons challenges that need to be addressed as the war progresses. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Thursday that fighting in Ukraine was likely to be “prolonged” and would continue “for months or more.” Some members of Congress and their aides are silently comparing themselves to the three-year Korean War. Two other European officials said they believed the fighting in eastern Ukraine – where Russian forces are expected to launch a new offensive – could take four to six months and then lead to a stalemate. Blinken, a senior State Department official, “discussed with his counterparts our concern that the conflict could be prolonged, but all his commitments revolve around the best way to stop it as soon as possible.”
Doubling arms support
British Foreign Secretary James Cleverley said this week that the start of new Russian fighting in Donbass could be weeks away, telling reporters that “there is a window of opportunity and I think that is why the nature of the support us is so important. that we provide weapons, the equipment that the Ukrainians need to do the job they need to do. “ There is growing public recognition of the links between Ukraine’s success on the battlefield and any hope of a diplomatic solution to the conflict – an idea that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba expressed directly to NATO’s Foreign Ministry last week. “It is clear that the positions of the delegations in the talks will be determined by the successes of the respective armies and the impact of the sanctions imposed on Russia,” he said. US officials have been giving additional military support to Ukraine this week as a follow-up, but say part of what has led to the doubling – and additional support – is the Ukrainians’ efforts on the battlefield. A second senior State Department official said, “We have done a lot and so we believe and have always believed in our Ukrainian partners. But as the struggle doubles, so does our commitment to give them weapons and equipment that they can use.” have used some weapon systems “with great effect”. Blinken said in a statement Thursday about the new $ 800 million security aid package that the United States “is focused on putting Ukraine in the strongest possible negotiating position, continuing to provide security assistance to help Ukraine defend itself.” and increasing pressure on Putin by imposing heavy costs on Russia. ” “We believe that (the Russians) really have the motivation only when they realize that they are facing a strategic defeat,” Estonian Ambassador to the United States Christian Prick told CNN. “Since it seems that they still have the same goals in mind that they had at the beginning of the war, which is essentially destroying the Ukrainian state and the complete surrender of the Ukrainians, it is difficult to see them become really serious. negotiations.” Prick said discussions were under way to better coordinate security assistance so that Ukraine had the weapons it needed when it needed them, and noted that there were “practical challenges” to arms availability. Such challenges were posed by other European officials who spoke to CNN, and State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Thursday that “there are practical challenges that accompany this, supply chain supplies, other elements of it.” “These are things we are working on,” he told the State Department. The Pentagon this week hosted the CEOs of the army’s eight largest contractors to discuss faster weapons production.
The cost of inaction
Officials also acknowledge that the public may be tired of continuing to support Ukraine, and it should be borne in mind that inaction would be even more costly. “You can not defend democracy for free. It just does not work that way,” said Smart. “The very visible cost is in human lives. We have discussed the number of people killed and injured during this conflict, but it has a financial cost and you know – we will pay for it by raising gas prices.” We will pay for this through general inflation as the kind of ripple effect of this kind of wash around the world, and people will not like it. “And it is quite understandable that people will not like this, but they should also recognize that not acting would cost much, much, much, much more.” There is also always a risk of divisions in the transatlantic alliance as long as the war continues, a European official said. However, they and others have said that Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine are likely to play a role in maintaining international resolve to ensure that Russia does not win. “I think the world has continued to be shocked by the level of brutality, the level of violence, the level of barbarism that Russian forces have engaged against the Ukrainian people. I think that will inevitably maintain that level of consensus within the international community.” , said Price. “It does not make sense that these countries are preparing to move on, to look the other way, and in fact, every time we gather, there is renewed horror, there is renewed condemnation, there is renewed determination to continue to take care. Our Ukrainian partners have this. “they need,” he said, adding, “at the political level, at the strategic level, there is no indication that we have seen that focus, determination, perseverance will diminish over time.”
