It is called for a smaller sacrifice and a higher purpose: to stop the slaughter on the doorstep of the EU is comparatively mediocre.
In any case, there is reason to believe that imported Russian gas could be completely replaced by next winter. Additional supply of gas and coal is emerging everywhere, mainly from imports that are no longer needed in China.
Chinese coal imports fell 40% by volume in March. The Communist Party is returning to domestic production of mines at breakneck speed for national security reasons, fearing that the US could at some point stifle offshore thermal coal supplies.
This is fueled by global markets. Rotterdam coal futures prices have fallen 25 percent since peaking five weeks ago, allowing gas-to-coal to power stations to switch. Citigroup believes that gas prices in Europe could be cut in half this summer.
The global oil market remains tight, but the International Energy Agency has again cut its forecast for global demand, this time due to China’s Omicron lockdown and Xi Jinping refusing to abandon Covid zero policies. The IOC reduced global crude demand by 1.5 million barrels per day in a matter of weeks.
The US adds one million a day from its oil reserves. Washington has mobilized American companies to carry out drilling as a patriotic duty. They can undoubtedly produce an extra million a day this year. Frackers added 13 platforms last week. The new licenses in the Permia basin have broken old records.
Yes, it can still be traumatic. Rystad has warned of a rise to $ 240 by the summer if Europe opts for an oil embargo. But such prices would very quickly destroy global demand and bring the market back into equilibrium.
It would no longer be politically possible for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to continue to hold 2.5 million barrels a day of excess capacity. Trying would be a strategic suicide.
In any case, the political barrier bursts in Germany. Die Welt described the media outrage, saying Germany’s love affair with Putin’s Russia was “the biggest and most dangerous miscalculation in the history of the Federal Republic”.
The chairmen of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs, defense and Europe committees – which cover all three coalition parties – all called for an oil embargo on Thursday.
“We must finally give Ukraine what it needs, and that includes heavy weapons. “A full energy embargo is possible,” said Anton Hofreiter, president of the Greens for Europe. “We are losing the respect of our neighbors on a massive scale. The problem is in the Chancellery’s office. ”
When you are in a deep hole, Scholz, stop digging.