Ontario Quietly Revises Its Plan For Hitting Climate Change Targets

The new forecast for the province’s greenhouse gas emissions posted on a government website shows some significant deviations from the reductions envisaged in the “Made in Ontario Environment Plan” in 2018. The new plan does not include reductions from the largest absorption of electric vehicles, which accounted for almost 15 percent of the projected CO2 cuts in the government’s 2018 plan. It also lacks the new forecast: any reference to the Ontario Carbon Trust, which the government has previously cited as a significant source of emissions reductions. It was announced in 2018 as a $ 400 million fund to help the private sector develop clean technologies, but it was never implemented. The forecast for gas conservation in the 2018 plan to reduce CO2 emissions by 2.3 megatons (MT) has been reduced to almost nothing in the new plan: 0.03 MT
Although the Ford government has unveiled its environmental plan for 2018, it has not issued a press release on the new emissions forecast. CBC News asked Environment Minister David Piccini for an interview in the days leading up to Easter weekend, but he was not available. This is the Ford Government’s new forecast for how it expects to reduce Ontario greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. (Ontario Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks)
Despite the revisions, the new forecast still shows that Ontario achieves a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2030. “The province remains firm in its commitment to meeting the 2030 emissions reduction target and is confident of the plan and trajectory to get there,” the new document said. The revised forecast notes that Ontario has already achieved “greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions than any other province or region in Canada.” These reductions came almost entirely through initiatives by previous liberal governments – mainly ending Ontario’s use of coal-fired power generation. By the time the Ford administration took office in 2018, the province was already two-thirds of the way to achieving that goal for 2030. The government can help in the course of the pandemic. Ontario emissions in 2020 were the biggest year-on-year decline since the 2008-09 recession hit the manufacturing industry: 16 tonnes lower than in 2019, according to federal data released this week, largely due to drivers who travel less and travelers who fly less.
Ontario’s new forecast predicts it will meet its 2030 target by reducing emissions by 12 tonnes from current levels. These reductions will come mainly from three sources:

Higher content of renewable energy sources in gasoline. Stricter emission standards for heavy industry. The planned shift of the steel industry from coal-fired furnaces.

Keith Stewart, senior energy general at Greenpeace Canada, says the bulk of the county’s planned emissions reductions are due to either federal regulations or programs that Ottawa helps pay for.
“The Ford administration is basically following the previous actions of the Ontario governments and the current actions of the federal government,” Stewart said in an interview. “Ontario seems to be saying, ‘We will do whatever the federal government owes us or pays us, and nothing more.’ “And that’s not good enough in the face of a climate crisis.” Ottawa’s mandate for clean fuels requires gasoline and diesel suppliers to reduce their carbon footprint. Ontario is largely achieving this by increasing its minimum ethanol content in gasoline to 15%. According to data provided by the Ministry of Environment to CBC News, the transition to “green steel”, which is partly funded by the federal and provincial governments, is expected to reduce emissions by 5.1 tons, while the content of gasoline in renewables heavy industry sources and standards will combine for a reduction of 5.35 MT. The ministry did not provide an analysis between these two initiatives. This graph shows the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions predicted by the Ford government in 2018 in its Environmental Plan. (Ontario Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks)
There are much smaller emission reductions predicted from less food waste dumped in landfills (0.97 MT), greater use of transit (0.58 MT) and gas savings (0.03 MT).
The government’s plan works, Piccini’s press secretary Phillip Robinson said in an email to CBC News. “This was done while ensuring that our approach is flexible to the opportunities, needs and conditions faced by jobseekers and is not detrimental to Ontario’s economic growth,” Robinson wrote. The three-page document outlining Ontario’s new plan to reduce emissions does not address climate change, says Stewart. “This plan is about meeting federal requirements, not tackling the climate crisis, because the Ford government does not recognize it as a crisis,” he said.
The Trinto government unveiled a plan last month to cut Canada’s emissions by 40 percent from its 2005 benchmark. Paris in 2016.
Dianne Saxe, vice president of the Ontario Greens, says the government’s forecast is unreliable. “It hides even more details from the unfounded figures in Ford’s latest forecast,” Saxe told a news release. “Doug Ford is not doing anything about the climate emergency,” he added. “Doing nothing about the biggest issue of our time is an insult to our children and future generations.”

title: “Ontario Quietly Revises Its Plan For Hitting Climate Change Targets " ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-02” author: “Cindy Goodrich”

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This is the Ford Government’s new forecast for how it expects to reduce Ontario greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. (Ontario Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks)
Despite the revisions, the new forecast still shows that Ontario achieves a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2030. “The province remains firm in its commitment to meeting the 2030 emissions reduction target and is confident of the plan and trajectory to get there,” the new document said. The revised forecast notes that Ontario has already achieved “greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions than any other province or region in Canada.” These reductions came almost entirely through initiatives by previous liberal governments – mainly ending Ontario’s use of coal-fired power generation. By the time the Ford administration took office in 2018, the province was already two-thirds of the way to achieving that goal for 2030. The government can help in the course of the pandemic. Ontario emissions in 2020 were the biggest year-on-year decline since the 2008-09 recession hit the manufacturing industry: 16 tonnes lower than in 2019, according to federal data released this week, largely due to drivers who travel less and travelers who fly less.
Ontario’s new forecast predicts it will meet its 2030 target by reducing emissions by 12 tonnes from current levels. These reductions will come mainly from three sources:

Higher content of renewable energy sources in gasoline. Stricter emission standards for heavy industry. The planned shift of the steel industry from coal-fired furnaces.