The increase agreed on Wednesday to just 100,000 barrels a day, or 0.1 percent of global demand, is likely to spark frustration in Western capitals after US presidents Joe Biden and France’s Emmanuel Macron met separately with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman. in recent weeks. Saudi Arabia is warming to a slight increase in output as it tries to use oil diplomacy to restore Prince Mohammed after Western allies distanced themselves following the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But it is also balancing its relationship with Russia, which has been working since 2016 with the Saudi-led OPEC group. Moscow has been hit with a series of sanctions targeting its oil exports that take effect later this year in response to its invasion of Ukraine. There are concerns that the kingdom and its Gulf allies, such as the United Arab Emirates, will not be able to replace the expected shortfall in Russian output. “Saudi Arabia is trying to balance calls from its Western allies for more oil production with the need to keep its excess production capacity in reserve in case output falls sharply elsewhere in the coming months,” said JPMorgan analyst Christyan Malek. . “This small increase will not materially change the balance of the market, but they cannot be accused of doing nothing,” he said. OPEC itself warned on Wednesday of “severely limited availability of spare capacity” saying it was therefore necessary to use it “with great care”. The Biden administration has sought to downplay the small size of the increase and has sought to emphasize that oil prices have already fallen in recent weeks, with international benchmark Brent crude falling from $120 in June to nearly $100 on Wednesday. Brent prices initially rose after the OPEC+ decision to above $102 a barrel, but later reversed to settle at $96.50, down 4 percent on the day. Amos Hochstein, senior adviser on energy security, told CNN that Wednesday’s announcement followed OPEC+’s agreement to accelerate planned production increases ahead of Biden’s trip to Jeddah last month. “We wanted to see some increases in production before we announced the trip, we saw that significant increase in July and August, this is a smaller increase, but an increase nonetheless,” Hochstein said. U.S. gasoline prices, a focus for Biden ahead of November’s midterm elections, followed the slow south, but there are concerns in Washington that prices could start to rise again. While Biden seeks lower prices at the pump, the Gulf states are seeking more military support and cooperation from Washington. On Tuesday, the US State Department, which is leading Biden’s efforts to lower global energy prices, approved the possible sale of missiles needed to rearm US-supplied defense systems to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This deal would have to be approved by Congress. Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst and head of commodities research at RBC Capital Markets, questioned whether the US private sector was as optimistic about the size of the increase, arguing that 100,000 b/d was likely to be less than what they wanted in return for investing in a “reset package” with the kingdom. “A lot of political capital was extended to that visit [by Biden] in Saudi Arabia,” Croft said. “I think it’s probably an understatement to say there will be disappointment in Washington.” Saudi Arabia, however, is already pumping nearly 11 million b/d of crude, almost at its maximum capacity of around 12 million b/d. There are questions in the oil industry about how long this level could be sustained. The country’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the crown prince’s half-brother, has emphasized cohesion within the group, but that is becoming increasingly difficult. Many OPEC members are already struggling to meet their own production targets after years of underinvestment and mismanagement, so they won’t benefit from higher volumes and could lose out if prices fall. Russia, which has become more dependent on its ties to the Middle East as Western powers seek to isolate Moscow, agreed that OPEC+ should accelerate production increases in July and August as they outlast the last of the production cuts made at the height of the Covid-19 lockdown. The G7 said on Tuesday it remained committed to trying to cut Russia’s oil revenues in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions targeting Russia’s ability to export its oil are expected to come into effect this year unless a deal is agreed to sell its oil at below-market prices, helping keep global markets well-supplied and limiting revenue that flow to the Kremlin. Additional reporting by Sarah White in Paris