Padres send their own closer, Taylor Rogers, to Milwaukee back in deal, Passan further tweets. Milwaukee will also get righty Dinelson Lamet, prospect Robert Gasser and outfielder Esteury Ruiz. It’s a huge acquisition for the Padres, and while it’s a real surprise to see Milwaukee close while holding a three-game lead in the National League Central, the reasoning behind the trade is pretty simple. Hader’s $11 million salary is projected to jump to $15 million next season in his final year of club control, and a generally budget-minded Brewers club may not be willing to commit $15-17 million to only a relief when this accounts for such a significant portion of the total payroll. The Brewers, of course, could have kept Hader over the winter and made him available at that point, but the allure of landing Hader for multiple postseason hits arguably allowed them to seek a higher price at this time. To that end, they get a closer in Rogers, who — like Hader — has struggled of late but has an excellent track record spanning several seasons. Milwaukee also adds a high-octane arm in Lamet, albeit one that has been plagued by injuries, and two of the Padres’ top ten prospects in Gasser and Ruiz, which breathes some life into a farm system that has generally been overlooked. of the strongest in the sport. It’s the kind of trade we’re used to regularly seeing lower-salaried clubs like the Rays and Guardians: cash in on the trade value of a coveted player when he’s had multiple seasons of club control while filling out that roster spot with other big-league help . It’s an immediate downgrade to the roster overall, but this type of simultaneous tightrope buying and selling has been one of the keys to keeping Tampa Bay, Cleveland and even Milwaukee itself competitive despite rarely being able to spend top-tier money. purchase. Hader, 28, is sporting a career-worst 4.24 ERA, though that mark was inflated by an uncharacteristic pair of back-to-back slumps earlier this month in which he was tagged for a stunning nine-run streak in one-third of an inning. Other than that pair of disastrous outings, Hader has a 1.87 ERA in 33 2/3 innings. He didn’t even allow a run this season until June 7th and struck out a whopping 41.8% of his opponents against 8.5% walks. Dating back to Hader’s debut in 2017, no one in baseball has surpassed his massive 44.1% hitting percentage — or even come close to doing so. (Craig Kimbrel is second at 40.6%). Hader’s 2.48 ERA this season is eighth best among 309 eligible relievers, and no one has topped his 19.5% swinging-strike rate. The name that follows Hader in that huge swing percentage — former teammate Devin Williams — may also have something to do with today’s trade. The Brewers certainly wouldn’t be as comfortable moving Hunter if it weren’t for Williams’ breakthrough as one of the sport’s most dominant relief pitchers. Armed with a deadly changeup (nicknamed the “Airbender”), Williams ranks fourth in strikeout percentage (39.9%), second in swinging-strike percentage (18.6%) and second in ERA (1.94) among of the same subset of special relievers just mentioned regarding Hunter. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Milwaukee should have simply kept Hunter and gone with that dominant duo throughout the rest of the season and the upcoming playoff run, but the combination of high upside, immediate replacements (Rogers, Lamet) and the long-term value of adding a pair of prospects to the system proved too enticing for president of baseball operations David Stearns, GM Matt Arnold and the rest of the Milwaukee staff. Moving on to this collection of young talent, the Brewers will surely hope that Rogers can shake off the recent slump that has plagued him over the past couple of months. Rogers, from 2018-21 with the Twins, wasn’t far behind Hader on the list of the sport’s best left-handed relievers. He worked 197 2/3 innings during that span, pitching to a 2.91 ERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate and 50 saves. However, a torn tendon in his hand cut short last season for Rogers, and he was traded by the Twins to San Diego on the eve of Opening Day this year. Rodgers excelled in his new surroundings, posting a commanding 0.44 ERA with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio through his first 20 1/3 innings. Since that time, however, he has slogged for an 8.14 ERA in an almost identical sample of 21 innings. However, Rogers still has an excellent 25-to-5 K/BB ratio in that ugly stretch, allowing just one home run along the way. His .429 average on balls in play during that slump is pretty big, but it’s still hard to overlook the stretch that has seen Rogers surrender 13 of his last 22 appearances. Still, Rogers’ track record is enticing, and perhaps the Brewers have their own idea of how the lefty can get back on track. He’s a free agent at the end of the season, making Rogers a pure rental — but he’s extremely affordable, as the Twins covered all but $700,000 of his salary in that trade to the Padres. Lamet, meanwhile, is another huge upside arm that the Brewers are buying low on. The right-handed flamethrower was a Cy Young candidate in the shortened 2020 season, but went down with a late-season biceps injury and missed a significant portion of the 2021 campaign with forearm strains. Lamet has 13 earned runs in just 12 1/3 Major League innings this season, but has been dominant in Triple-A (0.77 ERA in 11 2/3 frames). His fastball, which averaged 97 mph in 2020, is down to an average of 95.3 mph this year. There are obviously plenty of red flags with Lamet, but if he can recapture anything resembling his 2020 form (2.09 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate) while coming out of the Milwaukee bullpen, he would he’s been a formidable addition to the relief corps both this year and next year, as he’s arbitration eligible once again before free agency in the 2023-24 offseason. Both Gasser and Ruiz were among the Padres’ top 10 prospects and will now join the Brewers’ top 10 as well. Gasser, 23, was the No. 71 overall pick in the 2021 draft and held his own in the rotation with the Padres’ Class-A Advanced affiliate this season. In 90 1/3 innings, he posted a 4.18 ERA, but a much more impressive 3.27 FIP, thanks in large part to a 30.5% strikeout rate and a 7.4% steep walk rate. Amusingly, Gasser doesn’t rely on speed to find success, but rather command plus a breaking ball. Baseball America lists his fastball in the 90-93 mph range and calls Gasser a high-probability fourth starter—one who could move quickly through the minors. He could be an option in Milwaukee late in the 2023 season and certainly through the 2024 campaign. Ruiz, meanwhile, is an immediate option for the Brewers in center. He’s already made his big league debut, and while he’s just 6-for-27 in his first games, he’s obliterated Double-A pitching (.344/.474/.611 in 232 plate appearances) and Triple-A against moment in 2022 (.315/.457/.477 in 142 plate appearances). Ruiz, incredibly, has stolen 60 bases in just 77 minor league games this year and has already picked up the first of what should be some pretty big steals as well. Add in average or better raw power and it’s easy to see why Milwaukee loved him — especially given the team’s need in center. Ruiz isn’t a true center fielder and moved to the outfield full-time last season after struggling as an outfielder, but BA’s report on him notes that he’s already making decent jumps and reads as he learns in center. fly. Strikeouts were an issue for Ruiz earlier in his career, but he has struck out at just a 17.4% clip in the minors so far this season and has reportedly made some changes to his approach and swing that have improved his skills at bat to ball. . Of course, it’s not common to see a top team go with one of the game’s best players at his position midway through the season, but the overall game for the Brewers is an upside game that could get them comparable production in 2022 and significant long-term value afterwards. For the Padres, it’s a pure short-term play aimed at building a strong postseason staff. It’s also certainly not the only move San Diego president of baseball operations AJ Preller will make between now and tomorrow’s deadline. He was able to add Hader without having to give up any of the organization’s top prospects – ie. Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, Jackson Merrill, James Wood, Luis Campusano – all of them could be used as firepower to bring in a sizable pitching or outfield upgrade (eg Frankie Montas, Juan Soto). It’s worth mentioning that getting Hader likely puts the Padres over the luxury tax threshold, even with Lamet’s salary going back to Milwaukee. However, this only serves as a further indication of significant business by Preller & Co. In all likelihood, the Padres are just getting started, and we shouldn’t expect this to be the only move of note for the Brewers.
