A senior Taiwanese government official and a US official told CNN on Monday that Pelosi is expected to make the first visit by a House speaker to Taiwan in 25 years as part of her Asia tour. The long-time critic of the Chinese Communist government and its alleged human rights abuses would arrive in Taipei despite extraordinary warnings from Beijing of retaliation and consequences. Before Pelosi’s expected arrival, rhetoric was flying between Washington and Beijing. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan told NBC’s “Today” that China “needs to think very carefully” about escalating the situation and warned that the U.S. will do whatever is necessary to protect its interests. . But Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi renewed President Xi Jinping’s warning in a call to President Joe Biden last week that Washington should not “play with fire” in Taiwan and reiterated Beijing’s “One China” policy. ». Pelosi’s position and the new conditions created by Xi’s nationalist rule, as well as Beijing’s new assertiveness and military and strategic power, make it Taiwan’s most dangerous fringe in decades. With indications that Pelosi is determined to visit, the question has now become how Beijing will respond. Most of her choices — after a barrage of threats and propaganda that have raised expectations for her response — are quite troubling. Most analysts believe some sort of military show of force is likely, at a time when China has already sent its jets into Taiwan’s air defense reconnaissance zone in unprecedented numbers. While China’s moves may not directly threaten US naval forces in the region, they could raise the possibility of miscalculations — and also raise the prospect of how Taiwan would respond to serious provocations.
Why should Pelosi go?
So why would Pelosi go and her trip needlessly compete with China’s leadership? Supporters of the visit, which include an unusually large number of Republicans lining up behind Pelosi, say it is critical for the speaker to show support for Taiwan and underscore that Washington is serious about its legal commitment to provide the island with its means self defense. Pelosi is also a symbol of democracy — a way of life that Taipei is desperate to preserve under China’s authoritarian shadow. But the controversy is not limited to Taiwan. It is a broader context of China’s constructive challenge to America’s determination to maintain democracy, Western values, and military and economic primacy in the Pacific and around the world. Once word of Pelosi’s expected visit leaked, it became politically unlikely — domestically and for strategic reasons — that she would bow to Beijing’s warnings that she should not go. It would be unpleasant for Pelosi, after a political career partly defined by standing up to China, to abandon her plan. And it would send a message that the United States, in one of its first confrontations with a new superpower adversary in the Pacific, will back down. Biden also had political considerations. While she publicly admitted that the US military was concerned about the visit, she could not openly side with China over Pelosi. And a President can hardly tell one of the top representatives of another branch of government what to do and what not to do, even if officials tried to inform the speaker of all the possible consequences of her decision.
Politics also drives Chinese actions
Politics also rages in the Chinese Politburo, although many in the West often view China’s Communist leadership as monolithic. Xi built his power base on aggressive nationalism and the idea that Taiwan’s destiny is “reunification” with the mainland. He is determined to preside over a national revival that will erase China’s past colonial humiliation and long 20th-century isolation, when it did not exert what it sees as its legitimate influence on the world. So Pelosi’s expected visit is more than a jab at China. It’s a personal slight on Xi’s core work from one of the US’s most senior politicians — and it’s one that calls for a political response. The crisis also comes at a pivotal time in Beijing. In a few months, Xi is poised to seek an unusual third term and cannot afford to be seen as weak. And his government’s questionable handling of the Covid-19 pandemic — mass lockdowns are still commonplace in Chinese cities — and a slowing economy mean Xi could be tempted into a nationalist stance to hide the domestic obligations.
A long dispute
While the current standoff is troubling, Taiwan has long been an irritant in US-China relations. The dispute is further muddled by complex diplomatic deals and nuanced US strategic doctrines designed to avoid the possibility of war with China. The island is considered by Beijing as a legitimate part of its territory. The United States recognizes the People’s Republic of China on the mainland as the sole legitimate government of China and does not consider Taiwan a country. But it does not accept the Chinese Communist Party’s claim to sovereignty over the democratic island. While offering Taiwan the means of self-defense when it buys American-made weapons, Washington has adopted a policy of deliberate ambiguity about whether it would defend Taiwan itself, in part to prevent a declaration of independence from Taipei and to give leaders second thoughts. of Beijing. a dynamic occupation of the island. Robert Daley, a former U.S. diplomat in Beijing, said Monday that China’s potential response — perhaps, for example, an invasion of Taiwan’s airspace, is unlikely to trigger war, but would push the rivals closer to a danger zone. “This will create a new basis that will bring us a little closer to confrontation,” Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center, told CNN’s Pamela Brown. “I don’t think we’ll be in a confrontation this time, but I don’t think we’ll be any better off in our relationship with Beijing a week from now than we are today.”
Why Biden is worried about the trip
Biden has reorganized US foreign policy around the principle of countering China’s growing power in Asia and beyond. Thirty years ago, Washington hoped that by encouraging then-isolated China into the global economy it could promote political liberalization and bring it into the Western-oriented global economic and political system. But Beijing has sought to use its growing military and political power and influence to build an alternative political and economic value system to that represented by the US and its allies. But Biden also wants to manage this new competitive relationship so it doesn’t lead to war between the rising power in the Pacific (China) and the incumbent (the United States) and its allies. The US leader stressed in a phone call with XI last week that there has been no change in the fundamental nature of US-China relations or the White House’s position on Taiwan. But seen from Beijing, Biden’s repeated recent statements that the US would defend Taiwan, all of which were retracted by aides, may have left the impression that he is not being sincere. China is also watching a growing movement among hawks in Congress for Washington to replace its policy of “strategic ambiguity” about US intentions if China invades Taiwan for a clear statement that the US will defend the island. Some analysts say such a shift could not only drag the United States into a Pacific war against China for which the Americans are unprepared, but could also make Beijing even more aggressive. Or that the promise of an American shield could encourage a push for independence in Taiwan that could also force China’s hand and bring a wider military conflict over the island closer. Ahead of Pelosi’s expected visit, official statements by administration officials have consistently reiterated that there has been no change in US policy and affirmed her right to travel, but hinted at a difficult few weeks for China to respond in any form . “There’s no reason for Chinese rhetoric. There’s no reason to take action. It’s not unusual for congressional leaders to travel to Taiwan,” White House National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said during an appearance of CNN. “New Day” on Monday. “We should not be intimidated, as a country, by this rhetoric or these potential actions.” But in a new statement on Monday, Zhang Jun, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, again warned that the Chinese military would not “sit idly” as Pelosi visits and that her trip would have “extreme political impact”. The assumption in Washington is that Xi is not interested in a direct military confrontation with Biden. But he is stronger than previous Chinese leaders. And there is a fiercely nationalistic streak within the Chinese military along with growing confidence in its ability. So making assumptions about how China would react to Pelosi’s visit based on its behavior in past crises it has overcome could mean the US is in for an unpleasant surprise.
