Despite a Tory leadership contest dominated by the timing of tax cuts, the latest Opinium poll found little to shout about for them, with concerns over school and NHS funding heading into the autumn. About a third (34%) say taxes and spending on public services should remain at current levels, while 26% think there should be a tax increase to increase funding. Only 22% said taxes should be cut and less spent on public services. A lack of enthusiasm was also evident among those who voted Conservative at the last election, with 41% saying they wanted to see levels remain as they are now. Meanwhile, 27% want to see taxes cut and 22% want to see them increase. Liz Truss, the front-runner to replace Boris Johnson as prime minister, has promised an immediate program of tax cuts costing around £30bn, reversing a rise in national insurance contributions and skipping a planned rise in corporation tax. Rishi Sunak said business tax cuts would be prioritized and promised to cut income tax by 1p in 2024 – but wants to tame inflation first. The tone of the debate is causing desperation in Whitehall, with candidates battling it out as the threat of recession and the rising cost of living continue to grow. “What was Westminster’s response? Mismanaged government, months of prime ministerial fratricide and now a farcical leadership debate dominated by fantasy tax promises – which will create a weak, unfit new Trus government unable to handle the coming autumn tsunami,” said a Whitehall source. . Senior Tories have warned that the Truss tax cuts will fuel inflation, but the public is divided over their impact. Around a quarter (24%) think the tax cuts would lead to a rise in inflation, while 12% agree with Truss that it will cut the interest rate – while 24% think it would make no difference. The Opinium poll also reveals Tory voters now appear to be being won by Truss, who led the Tory member polls throughout the contest. The proportion of Tory voters in 2019 who think he ‘looks like a prime minister in waiting’ has risen from +5% to +28% overall since the last Opinium poll. Sunak has seen his rating drop from +14% to +6%. Among Tory voters in 2019, 48% think Truss would make the best prime minister, compared to 22% who chose Sunak. Truss poll data This suggests that many see Truss’ victory as a foregone conclusion, although the contest is still weeks away. Sunak’s campaign has insisted he can still win and that they should not rely on Tory MP polls. In a race that has seen candidates make regular announcements in a bid to win over the 160,000 Tory members with a vote in the contest, Sunak is today attempting to appeal to them by promising to take action against university degrees that have poor outcomes for students . He also vowed to boost vocational education. Adam Drummond, deputy director at Opinium, said how Tory voters now rated Liz Truss on a range of positive attributes had “increased by double digits”. Sunak poll data “Tory voters believe they are more likely to win the next election with Truss than Sunak and when the two candidates are pitted against Keir Starmer among all voters, Sunak trails by 4 (essentially the same as Boris Johnson) while Truss leads by 1, although the real winner in all these head-to-heads is ‘none of them’, which is higher than any single candidate,” he said. “But in October energy prices are up 70% and the Bank of England is predicting a five-quarter recession and any honeymoon the new prime minister gets is likely to be short-lived.” Opinium polled 2,010 people online from August 3-5.
