The province recorded 10 more coronavirus-related deaths on April 3-9 and 192 people are being treated, 20 of whom are in intensive care, according to data provided Tuesday by health networks Horizon and Vitalité. Public Health reported only 79 people in the hospital, including 13 in the ICU, on its new website COVIDWATCH. But these are only people who are being treated for COVID, not people who were initially admitted to the hospital for another reason and later tested positive for the virus. The data of the regional health authority include both, as the province used to do in the former COVID-19 control panel. On February 9, the county presented hospitalization forecasts for COVID-19 if the county moved to Level 1 of the COVID-19 winter plan from Level 2. It showed that the transition to Level 1 on February 11 could lead to a peak of 300 people in the hospital. He did not distinguish between those admitted “for” COVID or “with” COVID. The February 9 chart, where the pink line shows the sharp increase in hospitalizations expected to cause the transition to Level 1 on February 11, while the yellow line shows the wait for the easing of restrictions until February 18, was not intended to calculate impact. after all restrictions on COVID were lifted on March 14, the health ministry said. (New Brunswick Government)
If the county waited until Feb. 18, hospitalizations would “increase moderately and then stabilize,” said Dr Jennifer Russell, chief medical officer. The graph showed that it was forecast to be around 190 between the end of February and the beginning of March before falling again to zero or almost to zero by 16 April. “The height and time of the planned peaks in the hospitals [are] is subject to significant modeling uncertainty “, the graph notes. Health Department spokesman Bruce McFarlane said the chart “was used to compare two dates and the corresponding cases for each, to show the best time for the county to move to Level 1. “The purpose of the exercise was to convey the effects of the change of measures within a given time frame,” he said in a statement sent via email. The forecasts “were not intended to calculate the effects following the abolition of population-based controls at a later date.” The Ministry of Health has previously stated that cases would be expected in the future, however the volume of cases treated for COVID was expected to stabilize in hospitals across the province. – Bruce Macfarlane, representative of the department
New Brunswick lifted all restrictions on COVID-19, such as coverage, mandatory isolation for positive cases, physical distance and concentration limits, on March 14. “The Department of Health has previously stated that collisions would be expected in future cases, but the volume of cases treated for COVID was expected to stabilize in hospitals across the province,” Macfarlane said. It did not provide a timetable and the department ignored all requests from the CBC last month for the release of any new model for hospitalization, ICU admissions or deaths. Last month, a former department spokesman sent CBC the same Level 1 screening chart that was unveiled on February 9, but with a new title, Predicted Hospital Peaks. When the CBC pressed the Department of Health last month about the model the government relied on to make its February 24 decision to lift all restrictions on COVID-19, a spokesman did not elaborate but re-released the February 9 chart. with a new title. (New Brunswick Government)
In detail, “the landscape and the expected orbits of COVID-19”, said Gail Harding. The modeling “predicted about 100 hospitalizations, on average, by mid-March, which was confirmed,” he said. “Modeling is one of the many factors used to determine if restrictions are required or can be removed,” Macfarlane said Thursday. “The province is constantly monitoring and monitoring COVID-19. If the models are notified, they will be made public.” In addition to deaths and hospitals, 7,734 new cases of COVID were recorded last week. This includes 3,962 people who tested positive for PCR and 3,772 people who tested positive for rapid tests. Based on PCR tests alone, there are now 5,721 active cases across the province. New Brunswick is now facing the threat of a sixth wave that could be fueled by a new sub-variant of Omicron called Omicron XE, which is a combination of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2. It is 10 percent more contagious than BA2, which is 60 percent more contagious than BA1, according to the chief health officer.