Russia’s expansion in Africa pre-Ukraine was met largely with a collective yawn from the West. Now, as the announcement of an African tour by Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, shows, Washington is worried enough to stage its own charm offensive. But claims that the West is losing Africa are hyperbolic. A more accurate critique is that the West misjudged how Africa would react to Ukraine being framed as an attack on the rules-based global order. Rather than rallying Africa to the West, it prompted many in the continent to conclude that they were being enlisted for Cold War redux. That narrative was born from the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has been reinforced ever since by the West through multiple forums from financial sanctions to sporting event bans. Not only do many states in Africa disagree on principal with such an approach, but a vote that says ‘you’re either with us or against us’ in the new Cold War constitutes a huge ask for African countries. Although Africa is seeking to increase its self-sufficiency, it remains deeply reliant on international aid and investment.
