In the midst of all the horror of the war in Ukraine, some in the US and Europe have spotted a silver investment in reviving the Western alliance. Ivo Daalder, the former US ambassador to NATO, captured the new mood in a recent article he co-authored with James Lindsay, entitled “Why Putin Underestimated the West.” The speed, strength and unity of the Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine surprised the Kremlin, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov admitted. It may even have surprised Western leaders. Within days of the invasion, much of Russia’s central bank assets were frozen. A number of Russian financial institutions and oligarchs have been hit with sanctions. European airspace was closed to Russian airlines. Technology exports to Russia have been reduced. Russia had been eliminated from the World Cup. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany had been suspended and Berlin had announced a historic increase in military spending. And Western countries have agreed to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons – with the EU making its first move for immediate military assistance. G7 leaders line up after meeting in Brussels in March. US and European allies in Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia, have joined the effort to impose sanctions on Russia. © Henry Nicholls / Getty Images These answers were not just individual. New sanctions or seizures of Russian assets continue to be announced. The Western alliance also looks set to expand with Finland and possibly Sweden to apply for NATO membership. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, partly justified in response to NATO expansion – has in fact triggered further NATO enlargement. Previous international crises — such as the Iraq war or Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 — have either torn the Western alliance apart or shut it down. On the contrary, as Margaret Macmillan, a distinguished historian, points out, this time “the West seemed prepared and had really thought about how to react.” The chaotic withdrawal of the United States and its allies from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 fitted perfectly with the narratives strongly promoted in Moscow and Beijing about American isolationism and Western decline. But the power of the US-led response to Ukraine has helped to challenge those ideas – and it has encouraged Atlanticists. The Afghans in Kabul are trying to leave in 2021. The chaotic withdrawal of the allies matched the narratives of the western decline, but the response on Ukraine challenged © Akhter Gulfam / EPA / Shutterstock Norbert Röttgen, a German lawmaker who until recently chaired parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said: “America’s central importance to European security has been reaffirmed. Europeans are more aware of the importance of the American alliance. “Americans are reminded of the importance of Europe.” It has also become clear that “west”, as a geopolitical concept, is no longer defined by geography. US allies in Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia, have been involved in seeking sanctions against Russia. So is Switzerland, a neutral country and an important international financial center. US officials were more relaxed about imposing sanctions on Russia’s central bank, knowing that the world’s other major financial centers were acting in concert with Washington. Efforts by Russia and China to diversify their assets away from the dollar are much more difficult if the major alternative currencies – the euro, the yen, the pound and the Swiss franc – are also out of bounds. But while there is undeniable satisfaction in Washington and Brussels for the strength and unity of the Western response, even optimists are well aware that Western unity can be fragile and elusive. Vladimir Putin and Emanuel Macron in Moscow in February. Tensions over EU stance on Russia are rising, with the Polish prime minister criticizing the French president for numerous phone calls to Putin. © Sputnik / AFP / Getty Images At the moment, all eyes are on the French presidential election next Sunday. Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right Rassemblement National, is a candidate for President Emanuel Macron near the polls. Le Pen has a history of hostility to the EU and NATO and remains a proponent of rapprochement with Russia. In a foreign policy speech in Paris this week, he argued that “equality” should be a central principle of French foreign policy – implying that France should not favor its relationship with the United States despite its relationship with Russia. Looking further, many Europeans are watching Biden poll numbers plummet. The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2024 scares some NATO and EU officials. Even without Trump or Le Pen in power, tensions are already rising within the EU itself. Macron recently attacked Mateusz Morawiecki, calling him an “extreme right-wing anti-Semite who bans LGBT people”, following the Polish prime minister’s criticism of the decision. Macron to make many phone calls to Putin. Rassemblement National’s Marin Le Pen, who has a history of hostility to the EU and NATO, is right behind Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential race © Clement Mahoudeau / AFP / Getty Images Some NATO and EU officials fear that the prospect Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2024 could threaten Western unity against Russia © Chris Seward / AP Such intra-European tensions could escalate in the coming months as the war in Ukraine continues. The initial euphoria over the force of Western sanctions could give way to a sense of helplessness and despair as Russia commits war crimes across Ukraine while the West watches from the sidelines. Rising inflation in the West – especially rising energy costs – could mean that voters’ attention will be diverted from Ukraine and economic hardship at home. Le Pen is already making the cost of living the focus of its campaign – and that is going to climb across Europe. For example, British consumers, who have just seen a 50 per cent increase in their energy bills – are, on the current track, likely to be hit by another 50 per cent rise in the autumn. These financial woes are already leading to divisions over sanctions. Germany continues to resist pressure to immediately stop importing Russian gas – arguing that a rapid cut could lead to rising inflation and unemployment.
The indifferent south
It is also dawning in the West that the idea that the whole world is united in condemning Russian actions is proven to be false. Certainly, there have been some major diplomatic upheavals for the Kremlin. The initial Russian invasion was condemned at the UN General Assembly by a vote of 141-4. On the other hand, there have been many and important abstentions. Indeed, the countries that have failed to condemn Russia to the UN, including China and India, represent more than half of the world’s population. India’s response to the war in Ukraine is a matter of particular concern and warning to the West. Often hailed as the world’s largest democracy, Indians are critical partners in America’s plans to confront Xi Jinping China. Washington has even gone so far as to redefine what was once referred to as the Asia-Pacific region as Indo-Pacific – a bow to India’s geopolitical importance. Along with Australia, Japan and the US – the Indians are part of the Quad, a security group that China has denounced as part of an embryonic “Asian NATO”. But while Australia and Japan have joined forces with the West to push Russia away, India has clearly sided. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov recently paid a friendly visit to Delhi and had a private meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The least troubling explanation for India’s neutrality is the simple realpolitik: the Indians buy a lot of weapons from Russia and their main strategic concerns are Pakistan and China – so they see no reason to have a conflict with Russia either. The Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. While other Indo-Pacific countries have joined the “west” to repel Russia, India has clearly stood by © AP Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was one of the last foreign leaders to visit Vladimir Putin in Moscow before the invasion and remained neutral in the war © Andressa Anholete / Getty Images But there is clearly some emotion involved. Indian media coverage of the war is replete with references to the country’s long-standing friendship with Russia – and to Western hypocrisy, with everything from the British Empire to the Iraq war being cited as evidence. Kapil Komireddi, an Indian commentator who has been highly critical of his own government’s stance on Ukraine, also condemns the “intolerable sanctity of the West”. India is far from an isolated case. Brazil and South Africa also abstained from key UN votes on Ukraine. Two weeks after the Russian invasion, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa – considered a supporter of the rule of law and democracy in his homeland – wrote on Twitter thanking “His Excellency Vladimir Putin for accepting my call today.” Brazilian President Zaire Bolsonaro was once a close ally of Trump – but now he hates the Biden administration. He was one of the last foreign leaders to …