2:41 p.m.: The Reds and Twins are in “serious discussions” about a trade that would send righty Tyler Mahle from Cincinnati to Minnesota, The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans reports ( via Twitter ). Minnesota has had interest in Mahle dating back to the offseason, when it also acquired another Reds starter, Sonny Gray, in a trade that sent 2021 first-rounder Chase Petty to the Reds. Minnesota has focused on upgrading its pitching staff, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Having already landed Orioles closer Jorge Lopez in a trade with Baltimore earlier this morning, it appears their focus has shifted to Mahle, who will reunite with Gray and give the Twins a starter they can control for the remainder of the current season and for the 2023 campaign. Mahle, 28 next month, is off to a terrific start to the 2022 season and has done quite well over the past two months. He had a brief stint on the injured list with a shoulder strain in mid-July, but Mahle has missed only minimal time and has made a pair of effective starts since returning. Dating back to May 29th, he has pitched to a 2.83 ERA with a 27.9% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate in 57 1/3 innings. After a breakout 2020 season, Mahle has posted a 3.93 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 332 big league innings. He averaged 94 mph with his heater along the way and relied heavily on a splitter and slider that have both been rated as above-average pitches at times – more recently favoring the splitter (especially as a means of shutting down lefties). Mahle’s solid ERA aside, it’s easy to wonder how he’ll fare when he finally escapes the homer-happy confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s labored to an ugly 4.83 ERA and averaged 1.69 home runs per nine innings over the past three seasons while pitching at home, but boasts a stellar 2.93 ERA and just a 0.52 HR/ 9 on the road. He also has above-average rotation on his heater and pitches in the 76th percentile or better, per Statcast, in each of the following metrics: expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. Mahle will give the Twins some desperately needed help in a rotation that started the season on a surprisingly strong note but has faltered of late. Opening Day rotation members Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack are both on the injured list — Paddack is out for the season due to Tommy John surgery — and 2020 Cy Young runner-up Kenta Maeda is recovering from his own surgery TJ, which happened late last season. The Twins have relied heavily on Mahle’s former Reds teammate Gray, rookie Joe Ryan and veterans Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy so far in 2022. Gray and Ryan have both been strong – a disastrous start for Ryan in his last appearance, though – and Buddy has been serviceable, if not spectacular, outside of a pair of disastrous starts in late April and early May. Archer has been limited to four or five outings per start all season and started to wilt in recent weeks, however, and the Twins’ overall rotation mix simply bowed out in July. The Twins starters posted an abysmal 6.49 ERA in July — third-worst among all major league teams. Mahle is making $5.2M this season, making him quite affordable, even when factoring in his final arbitration raise for next season (or, as The Athletic’s Dan Hayes suggests , in a possible long-term extension). Even without an extension, he can join the 2023 staff along with Gray, Ryan and (healthy) Maenda. That’s a much stronger foundation than the team brought into the current season. More to come.
