The big picture: In the first phase of the war, Russian troops attacked on three major fronts, hoping to quickly capture cities, but became too tense and suffered heavy casualties. Russia is withdrawing tens of thousands of these troops and preparing them for a closer and more decisive battle for Donbass.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that peace talks are at an impasse and that Moscow will now focus on “liberating” all of Donbass, about a third of which was controlled by Russian-backed separatists before February 24. invasion. Putin justified the invasion in part through false allegations of “genocide” against Russian-speaking people in Donbas – a claim undermined by the fierce resistance of civilians in predominantly Russian-speaking cities such as Mariupol. This city, the third largest in Donbass after Russian-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk, could fall to Russia after seven weeks of barbaric bombing. This would give Putin a much-needed symbolic victory and free up more Russian forces for the upcoming attack.
The battle for Donbas will remove some of the obstacles that Russian forces have faced elsewhere in the campaign.
It is largely flat and wide open, in contrast to the more urban terrain near Kyiv. This is ideal for Russian artillery and tanks, although the rains have made much of the ground muddy. Russia should have fewer supply line issues fought so close to its own territory and fewer organizational and communication challenges in a more focused struggle.
Yes, but: Human resources and morale are both obstacles. It will take time to properly reorganize and rearrange so many units of data on the heavy losses Russia has suffered, says Michael Kofman, a senior Russian military expert at the CNA. Large stock numbers are not expected soon.
Ukrainian forces have also dug into much of the region during the eight-year war and are likely to fortify cities and plant mines to further slow Russian advance, he says. Coffman believes that the Russian commanders would be wise to delay their attack until they have fully developed their power, instead of “repeating the mistakes of earlier in the war.” But it will also leave time for Ukraine’s western partners to procure additional heavy weapons.
What to watch for: Concerns in Washington and some European capitals that Moscow would consider some offensive weapons shipments too “provocative” have largely faded, says Ziosry Basu of Axios.
The $ 800 million package announced by President Biden on Wednesday includes helicopters, artillery systems and armored vehicles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed for more in his last video speech, saying: “Freedom must be armed better than tyranny.”
The last: Russia also suffered a major blow on Thursday, the 50th day of the war: the cruiser Moskva, the flagship of its Black Sea fleet, sank. It is the largest military ship to sink in decades. More titles:
