The conflict in Ukraine has forced the two Scandinavian nations to reconsider their absence from the post-World War II alliance, which commits members to defending each other in the event of an attack. “Sir, Putin is proving that NATO is relevant and necessary,” said Sean Monahan, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “If NATO did not exist, you would have to invent it.” “Finland in particular and Sweden in particular are very stoic on these issues and see Russia with clear eyes. And that’s why I think they will eventually join NATO because they saw that the Russian revisionist threat was being built. “And now it has boiled over with the invasion of Ukraine, and there is no way back, and the best way to insure themselves against the threat posed by Russia is to join NATO.” As politicians and opinion polls in the two countries turn the tide – favoring NATO membership after decades of abstention – Moscow has renewed its threat to use nuclear weapons.
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s vice-president of the Security Council and former president of Russia, wrote in a Telegram post on Thursday that “there can be no talk of a non-nuclear Baltic state” if Finland and Sweden join NATO. adding that “the balance must be restored”. He said that if Finland and Sweden became part of the alliance, Moscow would “seriously strengthen its ground forces and air defense, and develop significant naval forces in the waters of the Gulf of Finland.” It is a particularly worrying threat to Finland, which shares an 800-mile border with Russia.
Finnish Foreign Minister Titi Tupurainen said on Friday that it was “very likely” that her country would join NATO, calling Russia’s “barbaric” war in Ukraine “a wake-up call for all of us”. This willingness could also put more pressure on Sweden, which would remain the only Nordic country outside the alliance and break the long-standing practice of neutrality with accession. “The fact that these countries were not well on their way to joining NATO three months ago and now is certainly a response to Russian aggression. “Russia needs to realize that its aggression against Ukraine has frightened many countries, even to the point that a country like Sweden, which has a 200-year history of non-alignment, is now really looking to join NATO.” Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to NATO, who also served as a special envoy for Ukraine. “Finnishization was coined to describe the Soviet Union’s insistence that Finland not pursue its own security choices. Now they will do it anyway. “So in that sense, it is possible Russia could be the answer to that.”
NATO expanders hope the two countries will formally signal their intention ahead of a NATO meeting in Madrid in June, where members could sign an accession protocol that will also have to be approved individually by each country’s legislature.
Experts say they are likely to be welcome in the alliance.
“They have advanced, modern armies and are considered security providers against security consumers,” Monahan said.
But beyond the practical defensive implications, the move would also send an important message. “It simply came to our notice then. “So integration would certainly give a picture of Western solidarity, transatlantic solidarity, and I think it would be an injection of democratic values ​​into NATO, so it would be visible in Russia as well,” said Gene Germanovich, an international defense researcher at the Rand Corporation. Once new entrants are invited by NATO members, each of the 30 member states will have to go through its own process of approving the treaty, a task that can take years, but experts hope that with the right incentives it can take a few months. . Volker said he hoped Sweden would complete its own internal decision-making process before the June summit.
“The leaders of the NATO summit… want to be able to make this decision once and then they want to close any gray area between becoming a member of NATO but not yet a member of NATO and eventually becoming a member of NATO – they want to “close this gap as soon as possible,” he said. But there are some possible sticking points. Leo Michel, the former director of NATO policy at the Department of Defense, said Hungary was the international player most likely to delay ratification, and any words to the contrary from former President Trump, often a critic of NATO, could complicate reaching a consensus in the US. Senate, where two-thirds of the votes are needed for approval.
“Given Victor Orban’s proximity to Hungary with Putin, I could at least imagine that Hungary might be slow to ratify,” said Michel, now a member of the Atlantic Council. “Given the way Trump has dealt with NATO, I’m a little nervous that they will get all the necessary Republican votes. Maybe in the end… [but] “I do not think it will be easy,” he said. “If he finds something else to attack the administration, there may be some who hear it and do not want to go with him,” he added.
It is unclear how Russia might react to a NATO expansion, although experts say ground action is unlikely. “If you look at Russia’s current difficult position, from the point of view of conventional forces they are too busy to say no to Ukraine, so it would be difficult to redirect significant forces to the north,” Germanovich said. However, Russia will seek to punish members of the alliance by other means, such as misinformation campaigns and cyber attacks, as well as possible actions for its nuclear threats. “Given the possible despair of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the military setbacks they have faced so far, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a possible recourse to regular nuclear weapons or low-efficiency nuclear weapons.” CIA Director William Burns said in a speech Thursday. “While we have seen some rhetorical stance on the part of the Kremlin regarding the transition to higher levels of nuclear alert, so far we have not seen much practical evidence of the kind of developments or military dispositions that would reinforce this concern.” said Burns. “But we are watching it very closely, it is one of our most important responsibilities at the CIA.”
The Prime Minister of Ukraine will take part in economic meetings in DC Here are the states that have passed laws restricting and securing access to abortion NATO membership would show that Finland and Sweden are taking Russia seriously, despite any pressure from Putin. “Mr Putin is likely to be unhappy with Finland and Sweden joining NATO. “One of the supposed reasons for going to Ukraine was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, so if Finland and Sweden join, he will only blame himself,” Monahan said.
“And there will be some kind of poetic justice, as we say, if NATO could prove the open door policy that Putin wanted to close,” he added.