The analysis, which the authors say is based on consumer, trade and shipping data, shows an economy at risk of collapsing as foreign businesses flee and sanctions continue. “From our analysis, it is clear: business setbacks and sanctions are devastatingly crippling the Russian economy,” the authors write. “As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the world’s unity in resisting Russia has somehow turned into a war of economic attrition that is taking its toll on the West,” the study said. he reads, adding: “This is simply untrue.” The ruble’s stunning performance in the wake of unprecedented economic isolation has been attributed by some analysts to buoyant commodity markets in a nation dependent on oil and gas exports. Others have pointed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand that these commodities be bought only in rubles and the central bank’s restrictions on foreign holders of Russian stocks and bonds receiving dividend payments from the country. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th. Alexey Maishev, Sputnik/AP The Yale study argues, however, that Russia is now trading its goods from a position of weakness and has been forced to shift from supplying most of Europe to striking below-par deals in secondary markets. And the authors claim that Putin’s “obviously unsustainable” monetary policy has driven the Russian government into deficit. The study claims that nearly 40% of Russia’s Gross Domestic Product has been lost as foreign businesses exit the Russian economy, “almost reversing three decades of foreign investment.” The Yale professors also say that domestic production of goods in Russia has virtually ground to a halt, causing supply shortages and driving up consumer prices. This shook confidence in the system and led to an outflow of capital and people, the authors write. “There is no way out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as allied countries remain united in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia,” the study concludes.
