CEPR cites the distribution of food, fuel and medical supplies as a vital first step in helping to restore the transport network. Given the importance of Ukraine’s vast agricultural area, support for agriculture is also a priority, analysts say. After that, Burakovsky says the “reconstruction of productive assets” is needed to restore the modern economy, possibly with something better than what was destroyed. Replacing obsolete industrial facilities could help the economy recover more strongly, bearing in mind the post-war recovery of Germany and Japan, which eventually became more advanced and wealthier than many of the victors of the war. Long-term defense investments will also be key. “We have to spend as much as possible to ensure our security,” Burakovsky said, both directly for the military and when it comes to broader reconstruction plans. “It will affect, for example, how the buildings will be constructed to provide shelter to civilians in the event of another round of war.” At the same time, he says Ukraine’s institutions need support, with law enforcement cleared and the fight against corruption stepped up. Torbjorn Becker at CEPR says the Ukrainian government should be allowed to take the lead and democratically determine how the funds will be spent, with incoming aid coordinated by a single independent agency, rather than a flood of groups. “It really can not be the usual international financial institutions, where countries like Russia and China have a lot to say. “It should be related to the EU, preferably,” he said, noting Ukraine’s desire to join the bloc. “If we look at the history of the European war, we have seen many examples of reconstruction that have been successful. But we have examples of Afghanistan and Iraq where it was not so easy. “These countries did not have the institutional support that the EU would provide to Ukraine.” Burakovsky sees Ukraine eventually becoming “a dynamic economy… at the heart of the EU’s economic complex”. Godareva does not even believe that it will take that long, if the war can be ended, the reforms to move forward and the reconstruction to begin. “You could make reforms in three years. “Once all the reforms are completed, you could make a real recovery of the Ukrainian economy, even of the cities, in five to 10 years.”
