To hear public statements from the government, you could be forgiven for thinking the odds are extremely low: the UK has no direct links to Russian pipelines. has its own production in the North Sea plus significant supplies from reliable Norway. and there is ample capacity to import marine cargoes of liquefied natural gas when needed. Homes should remain heated and electricity supplies secure, even if the price is extremely painful, is the official line. But the reality is more complicated and disturbing. While it’s true that the energy industry believes the UK is better off than most European countries, executives quietly admit there are reasons to be concerned not just about gas prices, but about physical access to supplies. If Moscow turns off the taps completely, it is not certain that the UK will not face shortages either. The UK business department was concerned enough about the UK’s security of supply to commission an extensive study five years ago. It included a scenario of a complete cut-off of Russian natural gas. The results make for uncomfortable reading. It found that if the cut was extended and continental European countries were willing to pay whatever was necessary to secure gas, then the UK could see “significant unmet demand”. In other words, shortages, which would require cuts in industrial demand, even potentially in small businesses and homes. In the most extreme scenario of very high demand, such as a particularly cold winter, the study found that 28 per cent of UK demand was not met, with more gas flowing from Norway and even UK fields on the continent . In such a scenario, electricity supplies could be threatened. The UK relies on natural gas for around 40 per cent of its electricity generation, and even more so on colder days when demand is high and wind generation tends to be low. Chi Kong Chyong, at the University of Cambridge, who helped model the business department’s study, said that while the UK enjoyed some advantages, it was certainly not at zero risk. “When there is a global shortage of natural gas, as we would see if Russia cuts off supplies completely this winter, it is simple economics that the country that is prepared to pay more will secure the supplies,” Chyong said. “The UK is not immune to this reality.” Germany, which is both the richest country in the EU and among the most exposed to the loss of Russian gas, is providing government-backed financing to help companies secure gas for this winter. The UK is not. UK-based companies could find themselves in a one-sided race. Access to LNG is also not guaranteed. Europe and the UK already face competition with Asia to secure cargoes not tied to long-term contracts. Europe has been winning this battle since last winter by being willing to pay more. However, a cold winter in northern Asia would pit European buyers against many state-backed Asian utilities, which are less price-sensitive when subject to government mandates.

LNG competition in Europe is also increasing. Germany, which before the crisis had no LNG capacity, is ordering five specialized vessels that can act as temporary import terminals and wants two to be operational this year. The UK will have even more capacity, but in the teeth of a crisis, EU solidarity will already be strained. As it is outside the bloc, the UK may have to rely on its role as a conduit for gas supplies to EU member Ireland. The UK has gained some goodwill. At the moment, when gas demand is low, the UK sends significant quantities via pipelines to Belgium and the Netherlands, effectively acting as a transit route for LNG. It is even looking to expand capacity on one of the lines. In winter, however, these pipelines often flow in reverse as the UK draws gas from European storage during cold spells. With EU countries being asked to reduce consumption over the winter while the UK tries to carry on as normal, the issue has the potential to become a political lightning rod, threatening flows on the lines. There may not yet be a complete shutdown of Russian gas. If it does, the UK may find a way to confuse itself with the real advantages it has. Homes and vulnerable clients can be prioritized. The weather gods can be kind. But is there no cause for concern? This is hard to swallow. [email protected]