But heading into Tuesday, Washington state Republicans acknowledge there is significant uncertainty in both primaries, leading many in the state to believe they are likely — if not likely — to survive. “If the vote had been held a month (after the impeachment decision), they probably would have lost,” said a Washington Republican operative. “But given the 9% inflation, given the high gas prices that we’ve seen, if you talk to conservative voters, they may be more concerned about the state of the country now than they were 16 or 18 months ago.” Herrera Beutler faces a number of opponents who have attacked her for the no-confidence vote, including author Heidi St. John, state Rep. Vicki Kraft and retired Special Forces officer Joe Kent, whom Trump has endorsed. Newhouse, likewise, faces a number of Republicans who have bashed him for his vote, including former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, state Rep. Brad Klippert and vocal election naysayer Lauren Culp, who has been endorsed by Trump. A representative for Herrera Beutler and Newhouse did not respond to CNN’s requests for comment for this story. There are few public polls in either race, leaving many in the dark about what might happen. Adding to the uncertainty in both races is the fact that redistricting has slightly shifted both districts and Washington state’s open, nonpartisan primary system that allows people to vote for any candidate, regardless of affiliation. The top two vote getters in the primary advance to the general election, regardless of party. If either Herrera Beutler or Newhouse advance to the general election, they are likely to retain their seat — both districts lean Republican. Herrera Beutler and Newhouse aren’t the only Republicans to support impeachment on the ballot this month. In Michigan, voters will decide Tuesday between Rep. Peter Meijer and Trump-endorsed John Gibbs, a candidate who has made attacking Meijer’s vote a centerpiece of his campaign. And on Aug. 16, Wyoming voters will decide whether Rep. Liz Cheney — who voted to impeach the former president, has become a vocal critic of him and served as vice chair of the House Select Committee investigating Jan. 6 — deserves another term in Congress as he faces Trump backer Harriet Hagman. For many Republicans, including Trump, Cheney represents their most sought-after incumbent to unseat, given how vocal she has been in her opposition to Trump.
‘It’s a mess’
Herrera Beutler wasn’t shy about her impeachment vote at the time she cast it, often taking to Twitter to defend and explain the vote. During a televised town hall shortly after the vote, when a voter told the congresswoman he was “very disappointed” with her vote, Herrera Beutler vividly described the “banging” on the chamber doors during the Jan. 6 attack. “I can see how someone would say his speech didn’t do it. But I don’t know how to explain that he didn’t try to stop it,” he said. And she and outside groups supporting her have spent millions to win her primary. Herrera Beutler’s campaign has spent $1.7 million on ads attacking Kent, the Republican seen as her most viable opponent, while the Winning for Women Action Fund has spent another $1.7 million targeting Kent as ” he’s not who you think he is,” noting that he was. registered Democrat and voted for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential primary. Kent responded with $613,000 worth of ads, including one responding to the charges. “The truth is, I’ve never voted Democrat in a general election,” he says. Kent acknowledged that he voted for Sanders, but said it was an effort to wreak havoc in the Democratic primary to help Trump. “I was so committed to helping him win that I voted for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary because I thought he would be an easier opponent for President Trump to defeat,” he writes on his website. It’s also possible that St. John, a conservative writer and speaker, could hurt Kent’s chances of advancing. St. John has run just $100,000 worth of TV ads attacking Herrera Beutler, but the outside group Conservatives for a Stronger America has poured nearly $800,000 into the fight with ads boosting St. John as “the real deal”. The ads likely reduced Kent’s conservative support, thus helping Herrera Beutler. Treva Mahar, vice chairwoman of the Skamania County Republican Party, acknowledged the uncertainty in the race to unseat Herrera Beutler, in part because life in southern Washington seemed so far removed from the impeachment vote months ago. “If she hadn’t voted to impeach Trump, it might not have sparked so much action against her,” said Mahar, whose organization criticized Herrera Beutler and endorsed Kent. “There were a lot of Republicans who felt like he didn’t really represent us well anyway, but he was the best option at that point. Now we have some better options.” He added: “If Jamie Herrera Beutler wins this election, then the Republican Party has to work harder and harder and harder … to oppose Republicans like her.” There has been far less advertising spending against Newhouse, who has spent just under $500,000 on ads for his own campaign and has received a significant boost from the Defending Main Street super PAC, a group that has aired more than $800,000 in ads supporting the Republican establishment and emphasize his ties to agriculture, the region’s largest industry. Debra Manjarrez, chairwoman of the Yakima County Republicans, said there “wouldn’t have been a competitive primary” if Newhouse had voted against impeachment and that the 2015 Republican would have “won with 60 percent of the vote” in November . But Manjarrez, like others, worry that the broken field will help Newhouse move forward. While some Republicans have rallied around Trump and endorsed Culp, there are a number of candidates running as Trump-style conservatives. “It’s a mess,” he said. Teagan Levine, chairwoman of the Okanogan County Republican Party, said “emotions were running high” shortly after the impeachment vote and had many people come up to her and say, “We’re done with Dan, we’re done with Dan , find someone better.” The county party has continued to criticize Newhouse for the censure vote, but has not endorsed a candidate in the primary. As primary day approaches, however, some of the same people who were poised to oust Newhouse aren’t as fired up by impeachment as they once were. “Just this past week, I had several people bring up that Culp has no farming experience, so how could he help us with A, B and C,” Levine recalled. “(Emotions) were very strong, and now that voters have to check a box on a ballot, it’s a little bit harder for them to have a clearer choice because now they’re taking into account” more than the censure vote.
