The ships bound for Ireland, the United Kingdom and Turkey follow the first shipment of grain to cross the Black Sea since the start of the war. The passage of this Lebanon-bound ship earlier this week was the first under the landmark deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations with Russia and Ukraine. The first ships to depart are among more than a dozen bulk carriers and cargo ships that were loaded months ago but have been stuck in ports since Russia invaded in late February. While repeated shipments have raised hopes of easing a global food crisis, much of the accompanying cargo is intended for animal feed rather than human consumption, experts say. The Black Sea region has been called the world’s breadbasket, with Ukraine and Russia key global suppliers of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil that millions of poor people in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia rely on to survive. However, the initial shipments are not expected to have a significant impact on the global price of corn, wheat and soybeans. For starters, exports under the deal are starting at a slow, cautious pace because of the threat of explosive mines floating off Ukraine in the Black Sea. And while Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat to developing countries, there are other countries, such as the United States and Canada, with much larger production levels that can affect world wheat prices. And they face the threat of drought. “Ukraine is about 10 percent of international wheat trade, but in terms of production it’s not even 5 percent,” said David Laborde, an agriculture and trade expert at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington. The three ships that left on Friday were escorted by Ukrainian pilots for safe passage due to explosive mines strewn in the Black Sea. The ships started with more than 58,000 tonnes of corn, but that is still a fraction of the 20 million tonnes of grain Ukraine says is stuck in the country’s silos and ports and needs to be shipped to make room for this year’s harvest. About 6 million tons of trapped grain is wheat, but only half of that is intended for human consumption, Laborde said. There is an expectation that Ukraine could produce 30% to 40% less grain in the next 12 months because of the war, although other estimates put this figure at 70%. Grain prices peaked after the Russian invasion, and while some have since fallen to pre-war levels, they are still higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Corn prices are 70% higher than at the end of February 2020, said Jonathan Haines, senior analyst at data and analytics firm Gro Intelligence. He said wheat prices are about 60% higher than February 2020. One reason prices remain high is the impact of drought on crops in North America, China and other regions, as well as the higher price of fertilizers needed for agriculture. “When fertilizer prices are high, farmers may use less fertilizer. And when they use less fertilizer, they will produce less. And if they produce less, the supply will continue to remain insufficient,” Laborde said. The three ships that left Ukraine on Friday give hope that exports will increase to developing countries, where many face the growing threat of food shortages and hunger. “Moving three additional ships overnight is a very positive sign and will continue to build confidence that we are moving in the right direction,” Haines said. “If the grain flow from Ukraine continues to expand, it will help ease global supply constraints.” The Turkish-flagged Polarnet, carrying 12,000 tons of corn, departed the port of Chornomorsk bound for Karasu, Turkey. The Panamanian-flagged Navi Star left the port of Odessa for Ireland with 33,000 tons of corn. The Maltese-flagged Rojen left Chornomorsk for the UK carrying more than 13,000 tonnes of maize, the UN said. He added that the Joint Coordination Center — which is run by officials from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the U.N. that oversees the deal signed in Istanbul last month — authorized the three ships and inspected one ship bound for Ukraine. The Barbados-flagged Fulmar S was inspected in Istanbul and is heading to the port of Chornomorsk. The controls seek to ensure that outgoing cargo ships carry only grain, fertilizer or food and no other goods, and that incoming ships do not carry weapons. After Turkey helped broker the food deal two weeks ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, on Friday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the meeting would allow Putin and Erdogan to review the implementation of the grain deal and discuss prospects for talks to end the fighting in Ukraine. In other developments on Friday, Ukraine’s presidential office said at least eight civilians were killed and 16 others wounded in the latest Russian shelling. The eastern region of Donetsk has been facing the most intense Russian barrage for weeks. Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kirilenko repeated his call for all residents to evacuate. “The shelling and shelling are going on around the clock, and people who refuse to evacuate are at risk of being killed on their pillows,” Kirilenko said in televised comments. In Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, three districts have been hit by massive shelling. Several apartment buildings and a public market were damaged and three people were injured. Russian shelling also targeted the city of Zaporizhzhia and several towns along the front line in the region. For the second day in a row, the Russians also bombed the city of Nikopol, which is across the street from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant across the Dnieper River. Dozens of houses were damaged. The Russians also hit the southern city of Mykolaiv. The regional governor, Vitaly Kim, said Russian forces shelled the town after lunch, causing extensive damage, killing an unspecified number of people and wounding at least nine. He said the fire came from the direction of Kherson, the Russian-held city about 50 kilometers (30 miles) to the southeast.
Batrawy reported from Dubai.
