The summit with Vladimir Putin comes the same week a ship carrying grain from Ukraine was allowed to leave, the first since the conflict began, under a deal between the warring sides brokered by the United Nations and Ankara. The Turkish leader’s international credentials have been boosted by the deal that restores exports of Ukrainian and Russian agricultural products, easing a threat to global food security. Erdogan’s trip – his eighth to Russia since the start of 2019 – follows a tripartite meeting with Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran last month. According to Ankara, regional and global developments, as well as bilateral ties, will be on the agenda. “Because of its role in the grain deal, Turkey has been able to position itself as Russia’s diplomatic conduit to the international community,” said Eyup Ersoy, a visiting scholar at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King’s College London. “This diplomatic realignment has shifted the relational asymmetry more in Turkey’s favor and is expected to limit, to some extent, Russian resistance against Turkish policies and initiatives on matters of common interest.” Analysts said the main focus for Turkey will be Moscow’s acquiescence – or at least its lack of opposition – to a Turkish military operation in northern Syria. Russia, a key backer of President Bashar al-Assad, controls most of northern Syria’s airspace. Erdogan raised the prospect of another operation against Syrian Kurdish fighters in May. “We are determined to eliminate the evil groups that target our national security from Syria,” he reiterated during the Tehran summit two weeks ago. Tal Rifaat and Manbij, towns west of the Euphrates River controlled by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), are likely targets. The Syrian group is linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a 38-year armed insurgency against Turkey. The PKK is considered a “terrorist” group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union. Ankara has launched four cross-border operations in Syria since 2016 and controls land in the north with the aim of pushing back the YPG and establishing a 30-kilometer (19-mile) safe zone. An October 2019 incursion into northeastern Syria against the YPG drew widespread international condemnation. “Erdogan wants the green light for a military operation in Syria,” said Kerim Has, a Moscow-based Turkish political analyst. “As we saw at the Tehran summit, Iran and Russia are against this operation, but I think Erdogan can convince Putin. A lot of things depend on the internal situation in Turkey, because Erdogan wants to start the operation before the elections so that he can consolidate at least a few percentage points in the vote.” Turkey is experiencing its worst economic crisis in two decades – annual inflation hit 79.6% on Wednesday – and Erdogan faces presidential and parliamentary elections in June next year. The Kremlin could reduce this volatility, especially through natural gas. Russia supplied import-dependent Turkey with 45% of its natural gas needs last year. “Turkey wants to maintain its energy flows from Russia during the winter, while maintaining economic cooperation to ease its difficulties and open a [currency] swap agreement or acquisition of investment from Russia,” said Emre Caliskan, a researcher at the London-based Foreign Policy Center. “Erdogan could present this as a victory to the Turkish public and perhaps mitigate the high food and energy prices that are likely to pose a challenge in the upcoming elections.” However, it remains to be seen whether that would be enough to win over voters. “We have seen these operations in Syria before and they do nothing to help us,” said Istanbul tobacconist Cemil Sener, 39. “People know these are just tricks to give the TV stations something positive to report. And I don’t see how the Russians can really help our economy while being sanctioned by the West.” Erdogan and Putin may also discuss the possibility of Turkey sharing its weaponized aircraft expertise with Russia. The Bayraktar TB2 drones sold to Ukraine have proven particularly effective against Russian forces. Last month, Erdogan reportedly said that Putin had suggested setting up a drone factory in Russia during their meeting in Tehran. The Kremlin said last week that “technical and military cooperation” would be on the agenda in Sochi, a sign of Russia’s interest in supplying Bayraktars, according to Ersoy. “Recent news of Russian interest in acquiring Iranian drones is indicative of the urgency of the issue for Moscow,” he added. However, such a move would undermine the mainstay of Turkish support for Ukraine, as well as cause concern among fellow NATO members. Earlier this month, the head of Baykar, which makes the Bayraktar TB2 drones, blocked their supply to Moscow. “If Turkey were to further engage with Russia on military issues at a time when Russia is seen as the biggest threat to NATO, it would seriously damage relations with the West,” Kerim Has said.