In the main event of UFC 277 on Saturday, “The Lioness” has a chance to erase the bitter taste of a loss to Julianna Peña, a loss that cost her the UFC bantamweight title, a seven-year undefeated streak and possibly her chance to unequivocally recognized as the greatest female fighter of all time. If Nunes comes out and runs through Peña as she was expected to do the first time around and as she has done to so many challengers in the past, then December’s upset will be remembered as a remarkable blow in an otherwise uneventful career. If Peña wins again, suddenly one of MMA’s biggest upsets will look more like a passing of the torch to an opponent who has Nunes’ number any day of the week. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot more on the line in this rematch than a shiny piece of metal. The co-main event features two of the best flyweights in the world competing for an interim title with undisputed champion Deiveson Figueiredo temporarily off the stage. On the one hand, former champion Brandon Moreno looks set to regain gold and set up a fourth fight with his Brazilian rival. On the other hand, Kai Kara-France is looking to avenge his 2019 loss to Moreno and bring another title back to New Zealand gym City Kickboxing. In other main card action, heavyweight veteran Derrick Lewis stands in the way of Sergei Pavlovich challenging for a top 10 spot, Alexandre Pantoja and Alex Perez meet in a flyweight battle that could produce another challenger to Figueiredo’s title and Magomed Ankalaev can potentially secure a championship shot with a standout performance against light heavyweight stalwart Anthony Smith. What: UFC 277 Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas When: Saturday, July 30. The first four-game qualifier begins on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the four-game qualifier on ABC, ESPN and ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view. (Numbers in parentheses indicate position in the MMA Fighting World Rankings)
Julianna Pena (1) vs. Amanda Nunes (2)
Is this a new beginning for Amanda Nunes or the beginning of the end? Nunes has been open about being satisfied with everything she has accomplished in her stellar career, going so far as to say in a June 2020 interview that she is considering retirement. He has won UFC titles in two divisions. He wants to be a coach someday. She is a mother. She is happy. And if there’s one thing we know in the fighting game, it’s that complacency can lead to disaster when it’s time to get back into that cage. None of these factors are why Julianna Peña beat Nunes in their first meeting. Peña has a style tailor-made to take down Nunes: Great wrestling, massive well-earned confidence and a bottomless tank of gas. All of those strengths were on display when she upset Nunes, and there’s no reason to believe she can’t do it again, this time armed with the knowledge that her strategy worked not just in theory, but in reality. Skill for skill, we know Nunes is a better fighter than Peña. She has the knockout power advantage and is a better grappler, so I’m willing to buy the argument that she didn’t perform to her full potential at UFC 269. Ideally, Nunes took this loss as a valuable learning experience and we see a renewed fire inside her. I’ve just seen too many Nunes wins to count her, and while I think she’ll be more methodical than dominant on Saturday with an emphasis on maintaining her energy, this version of Nunes is good enough to beat Peña. “The Venezuelan Vixen” will give it everything she has to beat Nunes again and while I expect her to give Nunes hell for 25 minutes, I also expect Nunes to get the best of a decision. Nunes, #AndAgain. Choice: Nunes
Brandon Moreno (2) vs. Kai Kara-France (T4)
Speaking of #AndAgain, I like Brandon Moreno’s chances to become champion again. Kai Cara-France has never looked better, but Moreno has also improved by leaps and bounds since their first meeting and already had the advantage then. Moreno’s aggression is difficult to deal with, not to mention the variety of his attacks. He has more ways to win this. On the other hand, Cara-France has a heavy right hand and excellent foot timing. He also showed strong takedown defense against Askar Askarov, one of the best fighters in the flyweight division, so if Moreno decides to get involved in a fight Kara-France is ready for it. These two are closely matched and while Moreno won a clear decision the first time, another 10 minutes to work with could change the look of this fight. The safe bet is to go with the fighter who has done this championship dance before and that is Moreno. Three times in fact. It’s that advantage in title fight experience that makes me feel confident that she’ll get the better of Kara-France again, though I’m also confident that this isn’t the last time we see Kara-France fight for a UFC belt. Moreno by decision. Choice: Moreno
Derrick Lewis (6) vs. Sergey Pavlovic
At the risk of becoming the subject of the next roast, I’ll just say it: I don’t think Derrick Lewis can beat high-level forwards anymore. Here are Lewis’ recent wins: Chris Daukaus (Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist), Curtis Blaydes (much improved hands, but wrestler at heart), Aleksei Oleinik (submission specialist with stand-up aversion), and Ilir Latifi (solid boxer, but he hasn’t threatened to hit anyone in years). We know that Lewis can neutralize excessive competition. We don’t know if he can win a back and forth battle on the feet anymore. We also don’t know how good Sergey Pavlovich’s stroke is, but there is plenty of evidence that the big Russian can do it with his hands. Twelve knockouts, all in the first round, that’s a recipe for success against the often slow-paced Lewis. If Pavlovich finds the timing early, Lewis could be in serious danger of taking his third knockout loss in his last four fights. Lewis should try to close the distance and bully Pavlovic on the fence while looking for trips to put him on his back. One thing we know for sure is that Lewis’ pressing is as deadly as ever. Pavlovich is a co-athlete with a wrestling background, so much like Lewis himself, he can probably come off the bottom, but ground fighting is a good way for Lewis to do damage to his rangier opponent. Pavlovich sits just outside the top 15 of the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and is poised for a big jump up at the expense of Lewis. This one gets knocked out. Choice: Pavlovic
Alexandre Pantoja (7) vs. Alex Perez (8)
The flyweight division is ridiculously deep right now. For example, you could have put Alexandre Pantoja and Alex Perez in an interim title fight and while they don’t have the name recognition of Moreno and Kara-France, the quality of competition is just as high. Perez has already fought for a UFC title – albeit as an understudy – and Pantoja has two wins over Moreno (one from The Ultimate Fighter season). I have Pantoja slipping into that next spot with a win over Perez on Saturday. Perez has quick hands and solid wrestling, the latter of which could give Pantoja trouble, but Pantoja has serious pop when he starts throwing and his jiu-jitsu is elite. There aren’t many places Perez can take this fight where Pantoja isn’t a threat. The other factor to consider here is that Perez is prone to submissions while Pantoja is never finished. If you like this to go the distance, then Pantoja is the pick all the way. I see these two having some lively standup and ground exchanges in Round 1 before Pantoja pulls away and finds a submission in Round 2. Choice: Pantoja
Magomed Ankalaev (7) vs. Anthony Smith (8)
I understand the whole “Anthony Smith is going to make Magomed Ankalaev take the dog out” angle of this fight and why that should favor Smith, but I think Ankalaev is up to the challenge. Keep in mind that Ankalaev is a solid counter-attacker who uses smart moves to avoid fights. Even if Smith’s plan is to make this sloppy, Ankalaev has the ability to keep the action from breaking into slow motion. Look for his accuracy and reverse work to thwart Smith’s early attempts to push the pace. As the match goes on, that’s where Smith’s big game experience comes into play. You know he means it when he says there’s nothing about Ankalaev that intimidates him, and he won’t be afraid to take risks to stop Ankalaev’s eight-fight winning streak. Smith is the most dangerous kind of opponent for Ankalaev: Extremely skilled, highly motivated and with more to gain than lose. Ankalaev still needs to make a statement to emerge as the clear-cut No. 1 contender, and while I’m picking him to overcome adversity and win a decision against Smith, I doubt he dominates in such a way that the suitors hit him in front of the line . Choice: Ankalaev Preliminary Alex Morono def. Matthew Semelsberger Drew Good def. Rafael Alves Don’Tale Mayes def. Hamdy Abdelwahab Drakkar Klose def. Rafael Garcia Michael Morales def. Adam Fugit Ji Yeon Kim def. Joselyne Edwards Nicolae Negumereanu def. Ihor Potieria Orion Cosce def. Bloody diamond