Speaking after the departure Monday of a ship carrying corn from Odessa to Lebanon — the first under a U.N.-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine last month — Oleksander Kubrakov said he expected more than five ships to depart in the next two weeks from Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi. Last August, 194 ships carrying grain left Ukrainian ports, including the now Russian-controlled Mariupol, according to London-based shipbuilder Braemar. Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi previously handled about 60 percent of all Ukrainian grain exports. “The first two weeks will be a pilot regime, when we will have one, two, three vessels, and then we will receive the first one, two, three vessels coming in,” Kubrakov said in an interview. “At half past one [months]I hope that if everything goes as planned, the market will see that this mechanism works, that insurance is available, that it is cheaper and that it will simplify the whole process.” At least 16 ships are trapped in Ukrainian ports with cargo and crew waiting for authorities to test safe passage through sea mines — laid by both Russia and Ukraine — and the threat of Russian missiles. Moscow has pledged not to target ships carrying food if it can carry out joint inspections to ensure returning ships do not contain weapons. Wheat, corn and vegetable oil prices have soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. However, the prospect of reopening the Black Sea corridor, along with fears of a global recession and record crops in Russia, have recently pushed down agricultural prices. Chicago wheat, the international benchmark, has fallen below $8 a bushel, or levels before Moscow invaded. Corn has lost nearly 30 percent since its April high. However, many vulnerable countries dependent on Ukrainian grain are facing acute food insecurity. Ukraine accounts for 80 percent of Lebanon’s wheat imports and is a major supplier to countries such as Somalia, Syria and Libya. Moving the 20-25 million tonnes of grain stuck in Ukraine will require at least 371 cargoes of medium-sized ships capable of carrying 40,000-69,000 deadweight tonnes — or almost twice as much as the smaller “Handysize” vessels such as the Razoni, sailed on Monday, according to Braemar. Kubrakov said he hoped some safe passages would allow “free markets” to step in and pick up the pace of exports. A UN official said the merchant shipping world was “waiting to see” how the initial voyages went. “That’s why the test ship is so important: to build confidence, to show that ships can come in and out safely,” he said. Chris McGill, head of marine underwriting at insurer Ascot, said he was “concerned about the accuracy of the safety corridors” because tides in the Black Sea could move the mines. Allowing stranded ships to leave is also crucial to create space in Ukrainian ports for ships to arrive, the UN official said. “The ambition here is to get the ships out, to have new ships come in and have regular traffic.”

The complex logistics of navigating the Black Sea and Bosphorus to sub-Saharan ports, which tend not to be very deep, mean that a large number of smaller vessels will be needed to carry the trapped wheat, raising the prospect of long queues while vessels are checked. Intercargo, the trade group for dry bulk shipowners, said the industry needed greater certainty that merchant ships would not be bombed. Ship owners would also not want to send their ships to ports if the situation remains volatile. “I understand that nobody can give guarantees,” Kubrakov said, noting that Odessa was hit by Russian missiles just a week ago. “We hope this will not happen again, but such attacks could cause problems in the future.”