In January, Social Democrat Prime Minister Sanna Marin told Helsinki that Finland was not expected to seek NATO membership during the current legislative term. However, the Russian invasion revealed the disadvantages of not being a member. While NATO is providing some assistance to Kyiv, it has been reluctant to intervene directly or collectively under Article 5. Finland, like Ukraine, is a direct neighbor of Russia, with a 1,300-kilometer (600-mile) border. “It is not surprising that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a key factor in pushing Sweden and Finland closer to joining NATO. “The invasion of Russia has dramatically changed the political dialogue in Sweden and Finland and also critical public opinion,” Alistair Shepherd, a senior lecturer in European security at Aberystwyth University, told Al Jazeera. There are indications that both Finland and Sweden are heading for a truly historic shift in their respective security policies. During the Cold War, Sweden and Finland were considered essentially neutral states, albeit for different reasons. “Sweden’s neutrality was much more part of their national identity, while Finland’s neutrality was more realistic and was essentially imposed on it by the Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Aid Agreement signed between Finland and the USSR in 1948,” Shepher said.
“Very important contributions”
Since the end of the Cold War, both have developed an increasingly close relationship with NATO, especially after joining the Partnership for Peace (PfP) program in 1994 and the European Union in 1995. “The PfP was designed to offer non-NATO countries a way to develop their individual relations with NATO at a pace and to the extent of their choice,” Shepherd said. Despite their accession to the EU, and especially in terms of defense and military policy, both countries continued to position themselves as militarily non-aligned. This essentially meant that while they were no longer politically neutral, they were formally excluded from military alliances. The latter seems to be changing. Finland reportedly tends to decide on NATO membership within weeks. Sweden, meanwhile, is facing an election campaign and has been somewhat more cautious than Finland over its future. The government will want to avoid impulsive changes in security policy that will throw decades of dogma into the sea and thus alienate its core electorate. However, since the Russian invasion, public opinion has changed significantly, making NATO membership for Sweden, as well as Finland, more conceivable than ever. “The poll in Finland found 53 percent in favor of NATO membership and 41 percent in Sweden. More recently, this has increased further by over 50 percent now in favor of Sweden [rising to 62 percent if Finland joins]. In Finland, 68 percent are in favor of joining NATO [rising to 77 per cent if the government recommends it]Said Shepherd. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said after a meeting with her Finnish counterpart that the new security situation would be examined thoroughly and quickly. In any case, Sweden and Finland are already firmly integrated into NATO structures. Their armies have been cooperating with NATO troops for many years. Finnish and Swedish troops have been involved in the NATO-led operation in Afghanistan, and both have been working closely with the United States on equipment and training since 2015. “Both countries are what NATO calls ‘Improved Opportunity Partners.’ “These are partners who make a very important contribution to NATO operations and objectives,” Shepherd said.
“Russia will not be happy”
In essence, their participation will further enhance NATO’s presence and security in the Baltic region. Both Sweden and Finland bring advanced and well-trained troops to NATO. “It could create some long-term challenges, because having 32 members can slow down or hinder consensus decisions. “It also shows how far Russia has been isolated from the rest of the European community,” Alexander Lanoszka, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Waterloo, told Al Jazeera. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has hinted that all gates are wide open, but NATO has not yet formally considered membership. It is possible only after an application has been submitted. The schedule depends mainly on two factors. First, the respective governments in Stockholm and Helsinki must ratify the plan. “All national parliaments will have to ratify their application for membership. “It seems that the two governments would rather move fast than slow, but these legislative restrictions could put a brake on them,” Lanoszka said. The second obstacle is NATO membership. However, the major NATO countries have already made it clear that they would welcome the accession of Finland and Sweden. Support comes from the US, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Poland. None of the other countries has yet opposed the idea, which is crucial as the 30 members must agree to an application. “In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, it is likely to be adopted quickly and accession done quickly to show the unity and strength of the alliance in the face of Russian aggression,” said Katharine AM Wright, senior lecturer in international politics at Newcastle. University, he told Al Jazeera. “If the applications are submitted, then I would expect to see the granting of membership this year.” However, the accession of the two Nordic countries to the alliance does not seem without concerns. Russia will not be happy, leading Secretary-General Stoltenberg to stress at every opportunity that it is not NATO that is expanding but that nations have the choice to join the alliance.
“Significant escalation of the war”
Moscow has said that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia should strengthen its defense in the region, including by redeploying nuclear weapons. The Kremlin has been threatening “consequences” for years if Finland and Sweden join NATO. A spokesman for President Vladimir Putin recently said Russia would “have to rebalance” its border balance. “Russia is trying to influence the decision of Sweden and Finland, for example, by claiming that it will end a Baltic without nuclear weapons,” Wright said. “However, as the Lithuanian president stressed, Russia has long had nuclear weapons storage facilities in Kaliningrad. “If nothing else, such an attitude is likely to strengthen the case for NATO membership.” Former Russian President and current Vice President of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said in a telegram that there should be no more talk of a nuclear-free zone in the Baltic and Baltic Seas, citing the Kaliningrad enclave between Poland and Poland. The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO would remove the neutrality and non-aligned status of two countries from Europe, moving towards the acceptance of a militarized understanding of security as a primary approach for the West. However, Putin sees Finland and Sweden differently from Ukraine because of their different histories. Ukraine is considered part of a fictional “Russian world” by Putin. Therefore, Sweden and Finland are less comparable to Ukraine than their proximity to Russia. “Any Russian invasion of Finland or Sweden, even before joining NATO, is unlikely as it will significantly escalate the war,” Wright said.